#6 KHALEESI KAT
#4 ANGEL CHOIR
#3 MODUS OPERANDI
#6 KHALEESI KAT has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her last two outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back. Jockey Junior Alvarado and Trainer Bill Mott send her to the starting gate this afternoon ... they've hit the board with half of their entries saddled as a team to date. #4 ANGEL CHOIR, the morning line favorite ... is the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the turf, and has hit the board in three of her last five outings overall, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start.
RACING NEWS: Buoyed by larger fields and increased purses, daily average handle increased 10.7% at the 70-day Emerald Downs meet that concluded Sept. 27. Average field size also rose, going from 6.28 horses in 2014 to 6.82 in 2015, according to The Jockey Club Information Systems, and the Washington state track reported an on-track horse population of more than 1,000 for the first time in three years. TJCIS reported average daily purse distribution of $120,937 for this year's meet, compared with $96,403 a year ago. Last winter Emerald Downs announced a 20% purse increase for lower-level claiming races and also added several incentives to lower costs for horsemen. These enhancements resulted in several first-time Emerald Downs' trainers, with the biggest influx coming from Turf Paradise in Arizona, the track said in a release. Average total daily handle was $1,262,956, with a high of $2,421,017 for Longacres Mile Day on August 16. According to a release, Emerald Downs' brand also grew substantially, with a 16% increase in selling of its races in 2015. First-year Emerald Downs president Phil Ziegler credited the successful meet to the track's track founder Ron Crockett, and the continued commitment from the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe, who officially acquired the track in March and have enhanced purses the last 12 seasons. "The success we experienced this season would not have been possible without the support of our track founder Ron Crockett who continues to play a integral role at Emerald Downs, and the Muckleshoot Tribe who own our company and have invested over $13 million in purses since 2004," Ziegler said. Stryker Phd, who won four stakes races and became the first horse to win the Longacres Mile twice at Emerald Downs, repeated as horse of the meeting.
RaceAnalyser Thoroughbred Handicapping Software
Disclaimer: Every attempt has been made to insure accuracy, however since this report is prepared and typed by hand, errors, including typographical and numerical, can be made. It is the responsibility of the end user to "cross check" these selections against the actual entries and program numbers.
BRAZILIAN "BRAHMA BEER LONGSHOTS" - FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2015
a. Odds are AT LEAST 4-1
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - 8:06PM - #2 OSCEOLA PATRIOT 9/2
Evangeline Downs - Race #9 - 8:58PM - #4 TTT BRISCO SAID SO 5/1
Finger Lakes - Race #2 - 1:02PM - #1 TRIBUTE 5/1
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.
NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.
NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at email@example.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.
2015-2016 ARCHIVED FOOTBALL REPORTS:
Still, it's worth noting that Oregon is an above-average power conference football team and its opponent Saturday night, Colorado, is not. Opening spreads in this game in the -10 and -10.5 range were immediately bet down to the current number of -7.0. The current number is a steal on the Ducks. Those who grabbed the underdog seem to anticipate a repeat of Oregon's misery, but are apparently unaware of what they are getting into backing the Buffaloes. Colorado has yet to beat a quality opponent, and started the season with a listless performance of its own in a 28-20 road loss to Hawaii. Its defense had trouble getting off the field against a mediocre and conservative Colorado State offense, and the Buffaloes were fortunate to escape with a 27-24 overtime win. Their quarterback is experience but limited, and they lack explosive game-breakers on the outside and in the running game.
Rick's Bottom Line: In other words, this is a mismatch, and the perception of value on Colorado is misplaced. The Buffaloes are an ideal bounce-back opponent for Oregon, and the Ducks are the clear play here. I'll TAKE OREGON to both win and "cover!"
Injury concerns with Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams should not affect Rodgers' elite play. The Chiefs will move the football, but Green Bay's defense tends to bend, not break. Against Chicago, the Packers made a fourth-and-goal stop to ensure the cover and against Seattle they forced two fourth-quarter turnovers. Underdogs have won all three Monday night games outright so far. I see Green Bay ending that streak and showing no rust following the stirring win over Seattle. Get on the Packers now as the line likely will move upward as kickoff approaches.
Rick's Bottom Line: I'll take THE PACKERS to win and cover!
Without the services of power running back LaGarrette Blount who was suspended for the opener, the Pats seemed to instead spread the field on offense and let Brady go to work. Dion Lewis emerged in Blount’s absence, by there’s no doubt that Brady is still the master at attacking weaknesses and switching plays at the line. The Buffalo defense is fast, deep and talented and should provide an excellent challenge for Brady just like they did against Luck last week. What will be interesting to watch this weekend is how Buffalo decides to game plan an attack against the Pats defense. The Pats defense allowed 330 yards passing to Ben Roethlisberger last week, and 134 on the ground too … so its not like they cannot get scored upon. The Bills were typical Rex Ryan last week, with 36 running plays called to just 19 passes, so the Pats better get strapped up and ready to take on LeSean McCoy and company in the trenches. New England had actually won six straight head-to-head meetings with the AFC East rival Bills until last year’s late December loss in a meaningless game, 17-9. Meaningless because Brady only played about 25 snaps in the game in order to save himself for what ended as a successful Super Bowl run. Historically, the Pats have owned this series at the betting window too, going 21-10-1 ATS going back 32 games including a stellar 9-2 ATS mark in their last 11 meetings in Buffalo. However, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five, so there is a glimmer of hope for Bills backers.
Rick's Bottom Line: I know the game is in Buffalo and that the Bills are a very good defensive team, but if you’re going to give me Brady and the Patriots in a pick ‘em game … I got to take Brady and the Pats as a pick. So I’m taking New England as a "pick" in this one.
From The Tigers Sideline: The defense is way behind the offense in Lawrence these days. And the Tigers will pounce on the opportunity to further pad the numbers. South Dakota State slapped the Jayhawks around for 463 yards. Memphis will surpass that number off the arm of QB Paxton Lynch and the legs of Sam Craft and Jarvis Cooper.
From The Kansas Viewpoint: While there aren’t many silver linings to becoming a program’s first-ever FBS victim, the Jayhawks did move the ball well in Beaty’s system. QB Montell Cozart spread the ball around to 10 different receivers, while JUCO transfer Ke’aun Kinner debuted with 161 rushing yards and two scores. Memphis, remember, has a whole new look on D. Keep Your Eye on Department: Memphis must contain Kinner, who looks as if he can be a productive Big 12 back. Without ground support, Cozart will make mistakes, because he’s more of a complement than a signature player. Tiger linebackers Noah Robinson, Leonard Pegues and Wynton McManis will be tasked with maintaining lane integrity and wrapping up in space.
Rick's Bottom Line: Beaty might get there, but he has a long way to go with this Kansas team. Justin Fuente, meanwhile, has his Tigers eyeing American contention once again. A more polished Memphis squad will keep the Jayhawks reeling with four total touchdowns from Lynch. I'll TAKE MEMPHIS ... maybe even by a Blowout!
From Alabama's Sideline: Wisconsin needs to run the ball to win, Alabama might have its best run defense yet in the Nick Saban era. Drop mic, thanks for playing. The Badgers should be able to throw the ball a wee bit better than they’re being given credit for, and Joel Stave could be effective on his midrange throws, but he’s not going to stretch the field and there won’t be too many wide open spaces to work underneath. Alabama should be able to do what it does defensively – don’t take chances, don’t blitz, hang back and make the stop – and let its NFL front three control the line. The Wisconsin offensive line will be terrific again with a little bit of time, but it’s taking a little bit of shuffling to put it all together for the opener. That’s a problem – Wisconsin can’t win unless the front five wins the battle up front, and it won’t
. From Wisconsin's Sideline The Badgers can play a little bit of defense, too. The secondary returns loaded – it’s not a stretch to call it the best Alabama will face this year – after finishing fourth in the nation in pass defense. The Crimson Tide has weapons on the outside, but there’s no Amari Cooper, and the quarterback situation is still a question mark. No, the Bucky front three isn’t anywhere near the class of Bama’s, but it’s more than good enough to hold its own and should be able to load up and focus on Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake and the Tide ground attack. And don’t just dismiss the Wisconsin running game quite yet. LSU’s defensive front might not have been up to its normal snuff last year, but it was still solid. Melvin Gordon ran wild until he was inexplicably pulled out of the opener. Auburn didn’t have an answer once the Badger line started pounding away in the bowl game, and over the years, phenomenal run defenses tend to not be so amazing when Wisconsin punches them in the mouth.
Keep Your Eye On Department: Is Corey Clement really good enough to be yet another statistical superstar for the Badger running game? He showed what he could do as a freshman running for 547 yards and seven touchdowns, and last year ran for 949 yards and nine scores with the right size, the right look, and the right breakaway speed, Now he just needs a little room to move against the Tide defensive front. Replacing Melvin Gordon is apparently a piece of cake compared to finding a guy to take over the Alabama quarterback job. With Jake Coker suffering a foot injury, is it really going to be Alec Morris? Will Cooper Bateman get in? Will Coker be ready? Five quarterback are on the depth chart, with Morris looking like the easiest option to fill in. Alabama might load up to stop the run, but Wisconsin will really revolve everything around stopping the ground game.
Rick's Bottom Line:Wisconsin will look fine, it’s not going to be embarrassed, and it’ll have a few chances to take the game over – and then Alabama’s defense will decide that fun time is over. The Badger D will keep this from getting out of hand – this won’t be the 2014 Big Ten Championship all over again – but the O will hit a hard wall when it has to try to throw. I'll TAKE ALABAMA to both win and cover!
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