#5 SOUTHERN JERZEE
#1 TAPE IT
#4 TRACK 'EM DOWN
#5 SOUTHERN JERZEE, a 9-2 shot, takes a class drop (-5), and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in three of those efforts ... I also note that he will be adding blinkers for the first time this evening ... as noted on numerous occasions in the past, this subtle equipment change often produced noticeable speed boosts in their first applications. #7 POTUS is the speed and pace profile leader in this field racing at the mile distance on the dirt, and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in his last start, in a race which was contested at today's TrackMaster PLUS Class Level of 76.
RACING NEWS: A surplus in the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund will allow Turfway Park to increase purses for allowance and maiden special weight races through the end of its winter/spring meet. Turfway director of racing Tyler Picklesimer said March 11 existing KTDF allotments will increase 50% for the two categories. For example, a maiden special weight event with a purse of $20,500 will now go for $26,500 because the KTDF share will increase from $12,000 to $18,000. In such races only KTDF-registered horses are eligible for the supplements. Legislation that would make eligible Kentucky-breds who compete in allowance races for an optional claiming price of $25,000 or more is still in the General Assembly. "Due to the unusual number of weather-related cancellations this year, we would have ended the meet with a large surplus of KTDF money," Picklesimer said in a release. "After meeting with the KTDF Advisory Committee, we were encouraged to offer the additional KTDF funds for the current meet's remaining allowance and maiden special weight races. "That will allow Kentucky-bred horses the opportunity to earn more for their owners and trainers, and allow horsemen to make up some of the opportunities for income lost due to this difficult winter." The purse for an allowance event with no conditions will increase from $26,500 to $34,000 with the boost in KTDF supplements. "Anything we can do to make racing more lucrative at Turfway is positive," said Turfway general manager Chip Bach. "This decision helps mitigate the impact the winter had on our horsemen. We believe this added incentive will increase interest in the race days remaining for this meet." Turfway currently is racing Friday nights and Saturday afternoons. It added an optional day Sunday, March 2, and said it will race Sunday, March 30, to end the meet. The $550,000 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes and $125,000 Bourbonette Oaks (both gr. III) will be raced March 22 at Turfway.
RaceAnalyser Thoroughbred Handicapping Software
Disclaimer: Every attempt has been made to insure accuracy, however since this report is prepared and typed by hand, errors, including typographical and numerical, can be made. It is the responsibility of the end user to "cross check" these selections against the actual entries and program numbers.
BRAZILIAN "BRAHMA BEER LONGSHOTS" - WEDNESDAY, MARCH 12, 2014
a. Odds are at least, 4-1 or greater
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
Charles Town - Race #8 - 10:11PM - #8 GIN JOINT 12/1
Delta Downs - Race #2 - 5:42PM - #2 MAKE MINE CASH 6/1
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.
NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.
NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at email@example.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.
2013-2014 ARCHIVED REPORTS:
After listening to Van Pelt and Russillo (‘Van Pelt’ is Dutch for: drunk from thyself!), Freddie Coleman (like listening to Tokyo Rose while seasick), Merril Hoge (hillbilly Hipster), and Zippy the accidental Fantasy League winner down the hall, you’ve probably been drowned by so much Super Bowl information by sports creeps making your decision impossible to make at this point. Well, let’s have a little fun and I’ll try and ease you in so the decision is easy! Let’s GO Baby!!
Super Bowl XLVIII is taking place about 10 miles west of 42nd Street, New York City which anyone from New York will tell you “It’s the Center of the F***ing World A***ole!” The beloved New Yorkers; to live under a bell jar sitting on razor blades. The NFL says it seeks to reconnect modern football with past original football placing weather as a factor and a point of historical significance. I believe this is the NFL’s third or fourth spin on why the game is in Jersey? The NFL will fail…because they’re not telling the truth. Frankly, any goof can figure out why New Jersey is getting the Super Bowl…it’s the reward system! Build a new Stadium on the backs of taxpayers, get the Super Bowl: Glendale, Arizona; Indianapolis, Indiana; East Rutherford; Arlington, Texas; Detroit Michigan…etc. etc. etc. The “Modern” game is reminiscing in this sense…they’re using an age-old shell game to explain their actions. In any event, two Number 1 seeds will square off in the freezing cold (how are those $5,000 tickets tasting now???!) and THIS Super Bowl might become the coldest matchup since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani buzzed Benjamin Netanyahu after hours from his IPhone! The Broncos with the best offense in the NFL against the Seahawks with the Best Defense will clash in Jersey in a sub-zero cage match for all to remember!
”Is Peyton Manning a great QB?” is not the question most Super Bowl people are asking right now. Most fans are asking, “What the crap is the stinkin’ Red Hot Chili Peppers doing as a halftime sideshow?” (Don’t worry; I’ll get into the game shortly!) Even when the Peppers were making loot (‘90’s), they STILL weren’t worthy of Super Bowl stardom!! On the other hand, the Peppers make perfect sense performing for Botox fueled, image based sponsors! And the screaming, pre-arranged, enthusiastic audience pouring onto the field…priceless! Where in the crap does the NFL find these ‘out of touch’ focus groups?? The Stones (Stoners), Beyonce (manly feminine), Madonna (gut-punching excitement) and now Flea? That’s almost as goofy as Tom Brady crying because he was drafted late!! Yes, Peyton is a good QB. In the current NFL (last 10 years or so), it is impossible to gauge Peyton’s performances against…let’s say…any QB pre-Marino/Jim Kelly. Today’s NFL rules for DB play limits the penalty Free/Strong Safeties exacted from Receivers venturing over-the-middle. DB’s, not Receivers, are exposed to potential punishment from enthusiastic, over-the-middle Football Catchers! Peyton, in fact, may be a relic, a dinosaur as an immobile ‘Pocket-Passer’ in the NFL? Whatever the case may be, without Peyton Manning the Broncos are probably an 8-8 or 7-9 football team.
The Seahawks are a high-energy, play-every-play, shutdown team carrying a lot of confidence in their lunch pails. A word or two concerning Richard Sherman: Professional football is an extremely violent, highly emotional environment played by finely tuned players intensely focused on destroying…not defeating…destroying the opposition. When you place an “Image Magnate” (Erin Andrews) in the middle of the snake pit (field of play) IMMEDIATELY after a highly focused, highly emotional, player (Richard Sherman) makes a play to put the Seahawks into the Super Bowl against a Player Sherman has convinced himself to “hate” (upon the field…gaining an edge), well Ms. Andrews…and every other spoon-fed limp wrists watching…THAT IS EXACTLY why we are fans of the game!!! Look at it this way; if Erin Andrews goes away, the game remains…if the game goes away, Erin Andrews goes away. “Ms. Andrews (and every single spectator left aghast by Sherman’s post game remarks), this is the ‘something’ a professional athlete must have to succeed!” Richard Sherman is a class act carrying an axe to grind with Jim Harbaugh over Harbaugh’s comments of the “Seadderall Seahawks”. We don’t know the full shark bite details between the two, but Pete Carroll at USC (when Harbaugh was at Stanford) started much of what we are seeing! I LOVE the intensity of this 49’ers/Seahawks rivalry and wish this Super Bowl had the same tension! Sherman’s a class act; Harbaugh is reading his headlines…and Pete Carroll? Carroll has this team rollin’ but I’m afraid no one really knows who Carroll truly is…especially Pete Carroll. As for Erin Andrews…stay on the sidelines, say something starkly desolate, be void of humility, and tell all the drunks in Porkya’ Gap Kentucky “Thanks for Following Me!” Geez!
Seattle comes in 1st in the NFL in points against, 1st in the NFL in yards against, 1st in takeaways, 1st in yards passing against, 1st in Interceptions, 1st in net yards per catch against, 1st in rushing touchdowns against, 1st in percentage of drives scoring against, and 1st in drives ending in an offensive turnover. The Seahawks are 3rd in 1st down passing attempts against, 2nd in touchdown passes against, 7th in rushing yards against, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. THOSE STATS are UNREAL!!!!!!!! Defensive Ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril lead the pressure from the edge with Bennett 32th in the NFL in sacks and Avril 38th in sacks. Big hitting Strong Safety Kam Chancellor, Free Safety Earl Thomas, and Middle Linebacker Bobby Wagner cleans up the remaining mess left over by Bennett and Avril and all finished in the Top 50 in the NFL in tackles. CB Richard Sherman led the NFL in Interceptions with 8 and Free Safety Earl Thomas was tied for 5th in the NFL snagging 5 balls. CB Byron Maxwell finished tied for 11th in the NFL with 4 picks. The Seahawks defensive backs rely on upfront pressure and pressing receivers to the boundary. How do you beat Peyton Manning? Get upfront pressure and press receivers to the boundary!
The Broncos come into the Super Bowl led by Head Coach John Fox and Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio…HA! Who are they kidding! Truthfully, if Fox and Del Rio took the Super Bowl off it would probably benefit the Broncos immeasurably! Peyton Manning is the best Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Player Personnel Director, General Manager in NFL History (sorry Mr. Elway…ride those coattails and repeat “Denver still LOVES me, Denver still LOVES me…” [Ha! What a creep!] ). Manning’s expertise as a QB is not all in the numbers: Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns in 2013 and over his career, Manning has passed for almost 65,000 yards and 500 touchdowns! Manning’s complete expertise, beyond the stats, is very difficult to gauge and measure…the edge is in his mind and work ethic…Manning just knows how to beat ya’! At QB, Manning led an offense 1st in points for, 1st in total yards for, 1st in first down yardage, 2nd in passing attempts, 1st in yards passing for, 1st in passing touchdowns for, and 1st in net yards gained per passing attempt for! Those are very good offensive statistics; maybe one of the best years at QB (statistically) of all time! But Peyton’s influence…just like Napoleon, Cincinnatus, George Washington or an in-the-home Dad…is almost impossible to calculate quantitatively! But make no mistake about it; Manning IS IN CHARGE of the Broncos (and Colts when he was in Indy) because Manning is smart and he OUTWORKS everyone around him. Manning may not go down in history as the best QB/Player in NFL history. But Manning WILL go down as one of the greatest influencers in the history of sports…alongside Lawrence Taylor, Jack Nicklaus, Michael Jordan, Phil “The Power” Taylor, Lionel Messi, Franz Klammer, Dan Gable, Hichem El Guerrouji, and Wayne Gretzky! Can Manning beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl Forty Eight? Let’s take a look at where these teams “falter” and/or the differences between these two teams to predict a winner!
The Seahawks are actually led by a Head Coach (unlike Denver), Pete Carroll, who might resemble Elmer Gantry more than appearing to be Vince Lombardi. Carroll has done an EXCELLENT job motivating his professional athletes (a trait obtained while USC’s Head Coach…jus’ sayin’) and the team is inspiring to watch. QB Russell Wilson leads an offense that ended 2013 8th in points for and 17th in yards gained. The Seahawks don’t hurt you by slingin’ the ball all over the field. The Seahawks get it done on the ground led by Marshawn Lynch who ended up 7th in the NFL with 1,257 yards gained. QB Russell Wilson ended the season as 54th in total yards rushing because of Seattle’s offensive scheme and Wilson’s incredible mobility! Wilson also ended the season 16th in passing in the NFL with 3,357 yards gained, a 63.3 completion percentage while Seattle was sitting NEXT TO LAST (31st) in passing attempts for!!!! That is a HUGE STAT! Seattle was 10th in touchdown passes for while being 31st in total attempts! Wilson isn’t asked to throw the ball much, but when he does he is INCREDIBLY efficient! Remember those offensive stats if the Seahawks fall behind. Denver’s defense spent 2013 getting torched by opponents! Denver was 10th in the League in time of possession but 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage at 48.05%. Over their last 4 games, the Broncos converted a 60.98% 3rd down conversion percentage against a simply apathetic Texans’ team, an Oakland club on the verge of entering the BCS, a horrid playoff Charger team, and a Patriots team without any Receivers on the active roster!!!! ALL that glitters is not gold…just like the moment, in week 10, when we ALL found out the Chiefs were not very good despite going 9-0 out of the gate. The Broncos last 5 games were against teams with a combined 15-33 record (Texans, Raiders, and Chargers) and a Patriots team not having a professional wide receiver on the active roster! What is the reasonable pick for this Super Bowl? Let’s find out!
Super Bowl XLVIII won’t come down to Denver’s offense versus Seattle’s defense. Super Bowl 48 WILL be a battle between Denver’s defense versus Seattle’s offense! The best corner in a bad Bronco’s secondary, Chris Harris, blew a knee against the Chargers and is done until next season. That leaves R-Cromartie who ‘stunk it up’ in Philly in 2012, and rookie Kayvon Webster to guard the outside for Denver. That spells D-O-O-M for Denver at the boundary!! Picking up the pieces will be Safeties Duke Inehacho and Mike Adams to defend like never before. Unfortunately, neither safety is good enough, athletic enough, or experienced enough to drop the hammer on Seattle’s offense. Linebacker Von Miller is out…again…this time from a torn ACL; not self-lubrication (selfish!). Trevathon has played well and might very well be a defensive MVP---on the Jaguars squad---but this game is COMPLETELY outside of Trevathon’s best effort and look for him to be on his back more than Jazzy Josephine when the ships come in!! LB Wesley Woodyard…who I believe played shortstop for the Reds in the 70’s…has been pushed to play more minutes in Miller’s absence totaling 9 whole tackles in the last 3 regular season games and 2 playoff games combined! What a beast! HAHA! WooHoo! Champ Bailey is the Nickle/Dime/Hal Dollar/ Shadow of Himself and should be thrilled to just appear in this Super Bowl. Dreaming of a victory is movie magic in Prime Time. But they make “feel good” movies in Hollywood, not New York-ish Jersey. Here, they make movies that are profane and comedic. New York Comic-Movie Maker-turned-Weirdo Woody Allen might quip about the Broncos, “horses in Jersey don’t finish well…horses in Jersey finish well-done!” (he didn’t say it…I did) Anyway, here it is: Manning will throw for a couple of touchdowns and Seattle will not let Denver dictate policy all game like other Denver opponents. Denver’s defense will look like they’re catching alley cats in the back of Chinese Sweet and Sour Shop. Kindly note that this game "opened" in Las Vegas favoring Seattle by 3.0 ... with 70% of the wagers now being placed on The Broncos, the line has shifted to Minus 3.5 favoring the Broncos. I like the early assessment ... I'll THE THE SEAHAWKS in an upset!
The Seahawks ended the regular season tied with Denver for the best record in the NFL at 13-3 SU. Seattle will now have the 12th man at their back throughout the playoffs as a result of their number 1 seed in the NFC. CenturyLink Field is largely known as the NFL’s most difficult environment for visiting teams. Back in week 13, the Saints rolled into Seattle with a 3 game winning streak but were demolished by the Seahawks 34-7. Not only was it the Saints biggest loss of the season, but it was also one of the worse performances by the New Orleans offense under Coach Sean Payton. Brees and company were held to a season low 188 total yards on offense while the Saints defense was gashed for 315 in the first half alone.
Obviously the Saints have an opportunity to erase that loss to Seattle with a dose of redemption this Saturday but it is not going to come easy. Oddsmakers have the Seahawks listed as 8.5 point favorites for this Saturday’s contest. The good news is that the Saints have displayed a lot more physicality in recent weeks which should help them avoid a repeat result from week 13. As mentioned earlier, running back Mark Ingram has emerged as a reliable ground and pound type of runner between the tackles. Ingram carried the ball 18 times for 97 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over the Eagles. We all know about Brees and New Orleans’ potent passing attack. However the Saints were not able to sustain drives and gain tough yardage in their last trip to Seattle which left a lot of 3 play drives on the table. If Ingram can continue to run well, it could open things up for TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marques Colston down the field.
Obviously points will be tough to come by for New Orleans so keeping drives alive will be critical to their chances of a victory. Seattle owns the top rated defense in the NFL holding opponents to just 273 total yards and 14.4 points per game. The Seahawks are exceptional against the pass with All-Pro cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas. I would not necessarily Seattle has any true defensive weaknesses but they have been most vulnerable against the run. The Seahawks gave up several big numbers on the ground this season which is another reason why I believe New Orleans will try to run the football this Saturday.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle will surely put the ball in the hands of their workhorse and running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch touched the ball 301 times (2nd most in NFL) this season for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Saints ranked 2nd against the pass behind Seattle yielding just 194 yards per game. Therefore, if the Saints can keep Lynch bottled up they should be able to make things difficult for quarterback Russell Wilson and an average Seahawks receiving corps which would keep things very interesting.
Rick's Bottom Line: Weather looks to play a big part in this weekend’s game with heavy rainfall expected. I would jump on the under 48.0 as they number will likely come down throughout the week. Both teams will look to run the ball and I believe this game will be about the defenses. The rain just helps. I'll TAKE THE UNDER (48.0)!
The Bengals have played well all season. Many thought coming in that they had a shot to be a playoff team, but few picked them to win their division. They have been pretty balanced all season on both sides of the ball. They finished the regular season ranked 5th in all the NFL in both rushing defense and passing defense. Midway through the season, their top defensive lineman, Geno Atkins went down for the season, and many thought their defense would suffer, especially the line's ability to rush opposing QBs, well not so much, they have kept on doing just fine, and in order to advance in the playoffs, a solid defense is a must. On the offensive side of the ball, Andy Dalton has played well enough to keep his team winning. Would I ever trust him enough to win a game on his own? No, but so far he hasn't had to do that. With wide out, AJ Green, the Bengals ranked 8th in passing gaining over 258.7 per contest and they aren't too bad running the ball gaining about 110 yards a game. Cincy really should have no issue winning this game, but there is one very important key…Andy Dalton must protect the ball…MUST. This past Sunday they beat Baltimore handily but he threw four picks in the process. Baltimore this season wasn't the same team we saw last year, so the INTs weren't as deadly. If he thrown four interceptions against the Chargers, it's a wrap and San Diego will be the ones moving on to next week.
San Diego must have found a four leaf clover before last week's game against the Chiefs. A missed field goal from point blank range, and a referee blunder with the awful no call gave the Chargers not only the win, but the final AFC wildcard spot. Now, what will San Diego do with it? Will they make a magical run through the AFC playoffs, or will they go east, lose, and call it a day? I know one thing for certain, they will give it all they got. I am not a huge Chargers fan, but those guys play hard. A lot of that can be credited to quarterback Philip Rivers. He may seem like a hot head at times, but he is one hell of a competitor. The Chargers on paper have had a pretty good season. They are 4th in the NFL in passing, 13th in rushing, and their run defense ranks in the top 15 giving up only 107 yards per game. The one blemish to this team from a statistical standpoint is their pass defense that is near the bottom of the NFL giving up over 255 yards a game through the air. If San Diego wants to win this game, they will have to slow down AJ Green and the rest of the Bengals offense. If they can keep Dalton under pressure, this game could be very interesting.
Rick's Bottom Line: Playoff games are tough. It's do or die. One blunder could end your season and one great play could keep your team alive for the ultimate goal. Like stated before, Cincy is a seven point favorite over San Diego. To me, that is a lot of points. Yes, the Bengals are 8-0 at home, and yes they are the "better" team, but I think the Chargers have tons of momentum and fight left in the tank. 61% of bettors are on the Bengals, which means not much respect is being given to San Diego on the road. Both teams ATS record this season are pretty similar so there is no clear cut way to choose based on that. At this point, it is pure gut and hunch. In my opinion, San Diego may not come away with the win, but this game will come down to the wire. I like the final score being about 24-20 in favor of the Bengals. With the OVER/UNDER being set at a paltry 46.0 points, the folks in Las Vegas are anticipating a close, low scoring game ... I'll TAKE SAN DIEGO to beat the spread!
SAINTS (PLUS 3.0) over EAGLES
Sat, Jan 4 1 pm ESPN
The Compass Bowl
Legion Field, Birmingham, Ala
Vanderbilt (Minus 3.0) vs. Houston
Vanderbilt never takes bowl games for granted - James Franklin won't let it happen. Houston probably deserved the Pinstripe against Notre Dame, but getting to show what it can do against an SEC team could be a nice finish to a surprisingly strong season. Houston's defense will keep this close, but the Commodores will pull away late.
I'll TAKE VANDERBILT to both win and cover!
Fri, Jan 3 7:30 pm FOX
The Cotton Bowl
Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (Pick 'Em)
The Cotton Bowl always seems like it should be good, but it usually isn't. This is a BCS-level game that could've been played on a much bigger stage, but no, Oklahoma State isn't in the Fiesta, and Missouri isn't in the BCS championship. This is about who wants it more. Who wants to be here, and who wants to end a successful season - even with a disappointing finishing kick to the regular season - with something big? If these two teams are playing at a high level, this could be a fun and entertaining shootout.
I'll TAKE MISSOURI to win!
Wed, Jan 1 12 pm ESPN2
The Gator Bowl
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Nebraska vs. Georgia (Minus 9.5)
Vote of confidence, schmote of confidence. There are some games coaches just have to win, and considering Nebraska's 45-31 thumping to Georgia last year in the Capital One Bowl, and with Bo Pelini's issues in bowl games over the last three years, it would do him a world of good to come away with a win. Georgia should be a wee bit healthier, but it's still a shadow of its September self, especially without Aaron Murray under center. No one will be expecting much out of the Bulldogs, but a win would be a sweet ending to a sour year (sorry about that.) The Huskers will come through with a late score.
I'll TAKE NEBRASKA in at least a "spread upset!"
Wed, Jan 1 1 pm ESPN
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Iowa vs. LSU (Minus 6.0)
This could go into five overtimes after a Chris Davis-like field goal return sends it into extra frames, and it still won't be as much fun as the 2005 Iowa win on the Drew Tate miracle throw. Iowa is still searching for some measure of respect after a strong 8-4 season. That was nice, and beating Nebraska was fun, but as Clemson showed last season, beating LSU can make for a big offseason. LSU will have to get used to life without Zach Mettenberger, and it might as well start now.
I'll TAKE L.S.U. to both win and cover!
Wed, Jan 1 5 pm ESPN
The Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Stanford (Minus 4.5) vs. Michigan State
But Stanford lost to Utah. But Michigan State's offense was really bad for the first month. While both teams improved and adapted as the season went on, Michigan State did more to upgrade on the offensive side with Connor Cook coming into his own in the Big Ten championship. Much will be made of Stanford's familiarity with the big Pasadena setting after last year, but the Spartans will come in nasty.
Despite being a former graduate student at Stanford during my days working at TrackMaster/SportsMaster in nearby Los Altos, California, and living in Palo Alto ... I'll TAKE MICHIGAN STATE in an upset!
Mon, Dec 30 11:45 am ESPN
Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G Carter Stadium, Ft Worth, TX
Middle Tennessee vs. Navy (Minus 6.0)
The 'Big Question' is ... "Can Middle Tennessee stop the run?" Not really. This is a sound Blue Raider team that's on a hot streak winning five straight, but the front seven might get carved up. The team beat up on the weak and the sad in Conference USA play, and it's about to show.
I'll TAKE NAVY to both win and cover!
Mon, Dec 30 3:15 pm ESPN
The Music City Bowl
LP Field, Nashville, TN
Mississippi (Minus 3.0) vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is always the coach tester of the bowl season. For a BCS-level team, especially one from the SEC, there's no excuse to not have the Yellow Jackets figured out with several weeks and 15 practices to prepare. Of course, it's next to impossible to simulate the precision in practice, but Ole Miss has the athleticism to do just that. One way or another, this will be a blowout. Ole Miss will be healthier, and grouchy after the Egg Bowl, so ... I'll TAKE MISSISSIPPI to both win, and cover!
Mon, Dec 30 6:45 pm ESPN
The Alamo Bowl
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Oregon (Minus 12.0) vs. Texas
Oh dear lord. These two put on a fantastic show in the 2000 Holiday Bowl, a 35-30 Duck win, but this defense is light years removed from the one that was so strong over a decade ago. Memories of BYU's Taysom Hill running wild on Texas are still too fresh. Even though Mack Brown has done a nice job in bowl games, a healthy Marcus Mariota will officially kick off his 2014 Heisman campaign as Oregon goes ballistic.
I'll TAKE OREGON to both win (probably easily) ... and cover!
Speaking of that Week 9 matchup, Josh McCown was under center in that game where he passed for 272 yards, of which 107 went to Brandon Marshall. However, in Week 17 it will be Jay Cutler getting the start. This year he has gone 209 of 331 for 2,395 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions – good enough for an 88.1 rating. Of course a lot of the Bears passing game, which is ranked fifth with an average of 270.5 YPG, is due to their star receivers – the aforementioned Marshall and second-year wideout Alshon Jeffery. Marshall has hauled in 94 receptions for 1,221 yards for 11 touchdowns, while Jeffery has torn it up by catching 86 passes for 1,341 yards and seven scores. It’s a deadly tandem and made even stronger considering running back Matt Forte draws defenders into the box. Forte, who has carried 267 times for 1,229 yards and seven touchdowns, is responsible for the Bears’ 18th-ranked run game with an average of 113.8 YPG. Defensively both teams are equally bad. The Packers have allowed an average of 395.4 YPG (263.7 passing YPG and 131.7 rushing YPG) while the Bears aren’t too far behind at 384.3 YPG (270.5 passing YPG and 113.8 rushing YPG).
Rick's Bottom Line: So much (including lines) hinges on whether or not Rodgers will play; in fact, the betting lines are off until that question is answered. On Friday afternoon, The Packers announced that Rodgers will indeed play ... on Thursday, my analysis had The Bears winning and a UNDER wager was "in order." Now I'll TAKE THE PACKERS to both win and cover, and I'll make a small wager on THE OVER (52.0)!
Sat, Dec 28 12 pm ESPN
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (Minus 12.0)
Considering Rutgers basically invented college football, and Notre Dame is college football, you'd think the two storied programs might have forged a regular matchup. Nope. This is just the fifth time the two have played since a 48-0 Irish win in 1921. This might not be as close if the Rutgers team that died over the second half of the season shows up. It'll be a nice stage because it's New York, and the fans will be there because of the two teams, but if the Irish are motivated, this won't be pretty.
I'll TAKE NOTRE DAME to both win and cover!
Sat, Dec 28 6:45 pm ESPN
Russell Athletic Bowl
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Miami vs. Louisville (Minus 3.0)
It's a showcase for the NFL scouts as Miami native Teddy Bridgewater tries to recreate the Sugar Bowl magic of last year before taking off for the next level. Miami's Stephen Morris is a mid-round draft prospect who might show off a little firepower of his own. The two future ACC brothers should put on a decent show - unless it's cold. Orlando in December could be a bit chilly at night; Louisville should be better prepared. Bridgewater will be magnificent.
I'll TAKE LOUISVILLE to both win and cover the spread!
Fri, Dec 27 2:30 pm ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Marshall (Minus 1.0) vs. Maryland
It should be a home game with both schools likely to put butts in the seats, but which teams will show up? Will the Marshall team that clunked against Rice in the Conference USA title game make the trip, or will it be the one with the high-octane offense that can hang 50 on the board without breathing hard? Maryland came up with a Virginia Tech win from out of nowhere, but that was the one bright spot and the one win over a bowl bound team. Marshall will be jacked up to send the Terps off to the Big Ten grumpy.
I'll TAKE MARSHALL to both win and cover!
Fri, Dec 27 9:30 pm ESPN
Fight Hunger Bowl
AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA
BYU vs. Washington (Minus 3.0)
Under normal circumstances this would be the Steve Sarkisian Bowl, but now that he's a Trojan, Washington has to beat its former head coach's alma mater on its own. BYU was fantastic in last year's bowl win over San Diego State, and the defense should give the transition Huskies major problems. However, Keith Price and the Dawgs will be healthy, and they seem like they're going to be one of those out-with-something-to-prove teams.
I'll TAKE WASHINGTON to both win and cover
Tue, Dec 24 8 pm ESPN
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Oregon State (Minus 3.0) vs. Boise State
Seriously folks, who doesn't want to play in the Hawaii Bowl? Fans schmans, it's not like the other bowls are filling the second deck. Boise State will play hard in the first game without Chris Petersen, but can the offense keep up with the Sean Mannion show? This isn't the same Boise State team of past seasons, and when in doubt, always pick against the team making a coaching change.
I'll TAKE OREGON STATE to win and cover!
Rick's Bottom Line: It's official! The general betting public has finally gotten off of the NYG and think that they suck! Bad timing! The Lions shouldn't be laying 10 to anybody! I'm grabbing the GMen here which will be one of my bigger plays of the season. I'll TAKE THE GIANTS to beat the spread!
Sat, Dec 21 9 pm ESPN
New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (Pick 'Em)
The only thing you can reasonably ask out of a minor bowl game is teams that care. No problem here. The two Louisiana natives should bring interested and fired up fan bases, and even though the recent history hasn't been great - ULL won 41-13 last year - this is just the second meeting since 2000. It should be a good atmosphere, and the game should be solid as long as the Ragin' Cajun team that yawned its way through an ugly loss against South Alabama was simply looking ahead.
I'll TAKE LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE to win!
With only a few weeks left in the season the Eagles offense seems to be peaking, with quarterback Nick Foles putting up playstation numbers (20 TD- 1 INT, 120 QB passer rating 1st in NFL) running Kelly scheme. In fact, McCoy, Desean Jackson, and even Riley Cooper are experiencing renascence on offense, the offense that puts up 409 yards a game (3rd) including a league-best 159 yards on the ground each week. The Vikings defense is one of the league’s worst in pass defense (allow 283 ypg – 30th), but you can bet that if they have to commit more resources to stop the Eagles running game well, let’s just say the Eagles offense looks like they should have success inside on the Metrodome carpet o Sunday. RICK TAKES THE OVER!