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January 9, 2011 New Orleans, LA

THE B.C.S. CHAMPIONSHIP

L.S.U. (-1.0) vs. ALABAMA

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Even if you have no interest whatsoever in a rematch – and few outside of Alabama seem to – this really should be a phenomenal game between two teams loaded with NFL talent. Forget about everything that happened in the first game and forget about the final score. On its own merits, this game should be something special for two power programs at their peak.
2. Don’t fall for those who think the first game was boring. The 9-6 overtime war was gripping theater down to the very end. Consider it a shock if either one wins by more than a score.
3. It’s a big moment for the coaches as well as the programs. With Dennis Erickson and Joe Paterno fired, Les Miles can join Nick Saban and Urban Meyer as the only two current head coaches with multiple national titles. Saban can become truly legendary with a third title.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: LSU should probably be named the national champion and this game doesn’t really need to be played. It’s a rematch. If LSU wins, everyone will wish someone else had a shot. If Alabama wins, everyone will say it’s 1-1 in the series with LSU winning at Alabama.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. DT Michael Brockers, Soph. LSU
2. LB Courtney Upshaw, Sr. Alabama
3. WR Rueben Randle, Jr. LSU

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Although I am not going to wager on "the line" in this game folks myself ... my SportsMaster for Football software is "leaning" to a "push" ... with a slight advantage to Alabama ... I'll however, PLAY THE OVER (39.0) ... "Bet with your head ... not over it!"

Bengals at Texans (-3.0) Jan 7, 4:00, NBC

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals fell to the Baltimore Ravens 24-16 last week but still squeaked into the playoffs with the help of losses by both the Broncos and Jets. Now the Bengals get their 2nd crack at the Texans after losing to Houston 20-19 back in week 14. If you remember, the Bengals led that game 19-10 late before the Texans rallied to score 10 unanswered including a game winning touchdown pass by T.J Yates with just 2 seconds remaining on the clock. This Saturday the Bengals look to get revenge and end the Texans season at the same time. For the Bengals to be successful, they will have to get things going on the offensive side of the ball. The Cincinnati defense has been competitive all season allowing just 316 yards (7th in NFL) per game. However, the offense has averaged just 319 yards (20th in NFL) per game and also managed just 17 points on average over the last 5 contests. In the prior meeting with Houston in week 14, the Bengals managed just 285 yards of total offense and simply could not move the ball against the Texans defense. The Bengals ran the ball fairly well against the Texans behind running back Cedric Benson. Benson racked up 1,067 yards through the regular season and put together 91 yards on the ground against the Houston defense in the last meeting. Benson is a big part of the Bengals offense so they need him to be strong in the ground game. Still, Benson can only do so much and the Cincinnati offense will need help from QB Andy Dalton. Dalton's season numbers have been average at best completing 58% for 3,398 yards with 20 scores and 13 picks. The bad news is that Dalton has not been strong during the latter part of the season and has completed 57% or less passing in each of the last 5 games.

I personally believe that Dalton must play well for Cincinnati to win because Houston's defense will likely put a lot of focus on stopping the run. In the prior meeting, the Bengals scored 10 of their 19 points following Houston turnovers and they cannot expect those same turnovers to be as plentiful this time around. Therefore, it will be important that Dalton is able to make some plays in the passing game to help keep the Texans defense off balance or at least guessing. On the other side of the field, the Texans offense must avoid those dreaded turnover that nearly cost them a win the last time around. Houston turned the ball over 4 times to Cincinnati in week 14 and turnovers have really been an issue for the Texans down the stretch. For Houston their main priorities should be to protect the football, give the defense a chance, and avoid beating themselves. QB T.J Yates has struggled a bit since taking over the reins behind center by completing just 61% passing for 949 yards with 3 scores and 3 picks through 6 starts. Yates actually suffered a separated shoulder in last week's loss to Tennessee. The good news is that the injury was on Yates non-throwing shoulder and he will be a full go this Saturday. Still, Yates needs to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. The return of WR Andre Johnson should provide a big time target on the outside. Johnson saw a limited number of snaps last week in his first game back against the Titans but expect the leash to be taken off this Saturday. As always, running back Arian Foster will be the ultimate threat for the Houston offense. Foster posted 1,224 yards this year on the ground and added an additional 617 yards in the receiving game out of the backfield. Needless to say Foster is a guy that can make big plays with the ball in his hands. Therefore the Houston offense must make sure to get both Foster and Johnson opportunities with the football in hopes to put up some solid numbers on the scoreboard that has been missing in recent weeks.

Betting Trends

Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-2-1 ATS this season at home. The Texans' games have also reached the under total in 4 of their last 6 games as well.

Cincinnati is 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Bengals' games have also reached the over total in 8 of their last 12 games as well.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Houston has dropped 3 straight games since clinching their first playoff berth following week 14's win at Cincinnati. Those games the Texans appeared to be just going through the motions as they tried to overcome all the injuries that were thrown their way. Now the team will get the chance to put together their best overall effort and something tells me Reliant Stadium will be loud as ever for the Texans first ever postseason home stand. I expect you will see a different Texans team that will be revamped and ready to give a great effort against a Bengals team that is just not playing up to their full potential. I'll TAKE THE TEXANS to win and cover!

Rick Notes: "Folks ... my SportsMaster for Football Software Product analyzing the Steelers @ Broncos shows The Steelers "covering" the (-8½) spread rather easily ... however, I have received some reports about "QB BEN'S" ankle sprain, which any software analysis can not "analyze" ... I am going to place a small wager on THE BRONCOS to at least "beat the spread" ... not necessarily advising that you do the same!"

January 3, 2012 New Orleans, LA The Sugar Bowl 8:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech vs. Michigan (-1½)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Denard Robinson gets the big stage to show what he can do. With more than a month off to get healthy, he should be 100% and should be back to his quick, devastating early season form. His late season form against Ohio State wasn’t bad, either.
2. Virginia Tech gets a chance to make amends for a bad ACC championship performance against Clemson. QB Logan Thomas is a rising star, while RB David Wilson might be the quickest runner on a field full of speedy playmakers.
3. It’s the rare time the SEC isn’t in the Sugar Bowl. The last time that happened was when Florida State beat Michael Vick and the Hokies in 2000 for the national title.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Virginia Tech hasn’t really beaten anyone of note. There are plenty of nice wins over bowl bound teams, but there isn’t one splashy win and there are too many close calls against mediocre teams. Michigan will be well motivated after getting destroyed by Mississippi State in last year’s Gator Bowl.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. RB David Wilson, Jr. Virginia Tech
2. RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jr. Michigan
3. DB/PR Jayron Hosley, Jr. Virginia Tech

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE MICHIGAN to win .. and to "Beat The Spread!"

January 2, 2012 Pasadena, CA
The Rose Bowl 5:00 PM ESPN
Wisconsin vs. Oregon (-6.0)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. It’s Wisconsin power vs. Oregon speed. They’re two of the best running games, led by two of the best running backs – UW’s Montee Ball and Oregon’s LaMichael James – and it should be a fascinating contrast in styles. Both offenses can throw, too.
2. It’s a matchup of power programs as the two have been the best in their respective conferences over the last few seasons, but both are desperate for a big win. Wisconsin lost to TCU in last year’s Rose Bowl, while Oregon has lost its last two BCS games including the 2010 Rose Bowl and the 2011 BCS championship. It’s time for the Ducks to win something, and it’s time for UW head coach Bret Bielema to prove he can win on the biggest of bowl stages.
3. It’s the Rose Bowl and it’s on Monday, January 2nd. It’s how a Monday afternoon is supposed to be spent, and it has the potential to be the best of the BCS bowls.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: However, if the Badger defense doesn’t come up with a new wrinkle after having so many problems with Ohio State’s Braxton Miller and Michigan State’s speedy skill players, it could be a long afternoon for the Big Ten. The Badgers have to control the game from the start with its offensive line, but the Ducks proved against Stanford it has a run defense to handle the power.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. QB Russell Wilson, Sr. Wisconsin
2. QB Darron Thomas, Jr. Oregon
3. LB Mike Taylor, Jr. Wisconsin

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I wonder if there is a "prop-wager" in Vegas on "The Ducks'" uniforms for this game ... ? I'll TAKE OREGON to both win and cover!

January 2, 2012 Orlando, FL
Capital One Bowl 1:00 PM ESPN
Nebraska vs. South Carolina (-1½)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. It’s Nebraska’s first bowl game as a Big Ten team, and now it gets to show what it can do against an SEC foe. The last time the Huskers played an SEC team was the 2007 Cotton Bowl, losing to Auburn, and if they lose, the Big Ten’s lack of speed myth against the SEC will keep on rolling.
2. The South Carolina defense has been fantastic. It hasn’t played too many offenses with a pulse – and gave up 44 points to Arkansas – but the secondary is second in the nation and the run defense has been terrific. It’ll get a chance to show off against the Nebraska run early/run often attack.
3. After a dud of a performance in last year’s Holiday Bowl loss to Washington, Nebraska should come into the game fired up. The offensive line has been special when it’s been able to get into a lather, while the defense is good enough to stop the mediocre Gamecock attack and keep the game close for a full sixty minutes.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: South Carolina has been one of the most mystifyingly bad bowl teams in college football under Steve Spurrier. It should’ve beaten Florida State in last year’s Chick-fil-A ; it got flattened by UConn 20-7 in the 2010 PapaJohns.com; and it was blown away 31-10 by Iowa in the 2009 Outback.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. DE Melvin Ingram, Sr. South Carolina
2. LB Lavonte David, Sr. Nebraska
3. DE Devin Taylor, Jr. South Carolina BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA by a TD ... or more!

January 2, 2012 Tampa, FL
Outback Bowl 1:00 PM ABC
Michigan State vs. Georgia (-3.0)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Michigan State wants to prove it deserved a BCS bowl, but more importantly, it wants to get rid of the memory of last year’s embarrassing Capital One loss to Alabama. The Spartans didn’t belong on the same field as the Tide, and this year they plan to make amends. QB Kirk Cousins talked about the loss all offseason.
2. Georgia could use the win after losing to UCF in last year’s Liberty Bowl. Getting blown out by LSU in the SEC championship isn’t a shocker, but closing out with a loss to a Big Ten team wouldn’t be a plus for a team with the nation’s No. 3 defense. A win would cap off a terrific rebound year after starting 0-2.
3. The Bulldogs beat the Spartans 24-12 in the 2009 Capital One Bowl and beat them 34-27 in the 1989 Gator. It’s a Big Ten – SEC matchup that’ll be a big deal for both sides. If the SEC really did deserve to get two teams into the BCS championship, getting a big win out of Georgia will help he argument.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Georgia only has one decent win – Georgia Tech. There’s a chance that Georgia isn’t nearly as good as the stats, playing against a slew of miserable SEC offenses. If the Dawgs had played the three best teams from the West in the regular season – Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama – they probably would’ve been 7-5 and looking for a new head coach.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. WR B.J. Cunningham, Sr. Michigan State
2. FS Bacarri Rambo, Jr. Georgia
3. WR/KR Keshawn Martin, Sr. Michigan State

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE MICHIGAN STATE in an "upset!"

Dolphins at Patriots (-4.0) Jan 2, 4:00, CBS

Dolphins Keys For Success

QB Chad Henne. The Dolphins thought they had their quarterback of the future when they drafted Henne three years ago, but replacing him briefly with Chad Pennington proved otherwise. Now, Henne has one more game to show he can take care of the ball and score in the red zone before the Dolphins start over in the offseason.
LB Cameron Wake. Miami has the league looking toward the CFL for talent thanks to his emergence. With 14 sacks in extended time, Wake has proven he's on his way to being a complete player. Getting to quarterback Tom Brady with four rushers could derail the Patriots offense, and Wake is the only one who could make it happen.
RB Ricky Williams. Known as a running team, the Dolphins have averaged just 3.7 yards per rush this season. But with an average of 4.4 yards, perhaps Ricky Williams is simply waiting to be handed the rock. He's his team's best option to control the clock, and he still has the ability to take over a game. But will he get the chance?

Patriots Keys For Success

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The goal for coach Bill Belichick's team is to win with minimal risk, making it essential for Green-Ellis to have a big game. If the team's leading rusher, who is closing in on 1,000 yards, is productive running downhill, quarterback Tom Brady can live off check downs and keep the offense moving.
CB Darius Butler. One unanswered question heading into the playoffs is who will start at right cornerback. Kyle Arrington has started most of the season, but it was ex-starter Butler on the field at the end of the Bills win. If Butler's play with the ball in the air continues, don't be surprised if he takes over for Arrington in crunch time.
LB Gary Guyton. The Patriots are without run-stuffing linebacker Brandon Spikes for one more game, so the onus is on Guyton to function in his place. In wins over the Packers and Bills, it was no problem. But Miami is physical and will establish the run, meaning Guyton must toughen up. If he's auditioning for Spikes' job, this is Guyton's final shot.

The Bottom Line Department

Sunday's game may be meaningless for both teams, despite the NFL's best wishes. The Patriots have nothing left to play for with their playoff bye and No. 1 seed locked up. As for the Dolphins, if the ownership wants to make a move and blow up the coaching staff and personnel department, they've likely already made up their minds. Don't expect a crisp effort from either team. But in a game that should see the Patriots play conservative and show little, it could turn into the smash-mouth contest the Dolphins crave. As was the case last in last year's finale, quarterback Tom Brady may exit in the final quarter to allow backup Brian Hoyer some experience. I'll still take THE PATRIOTS to win and cover!

December 31, 2011 Houston, TX
Meinke Car Care Bowl 12:00 PM ESPN
Northwestern vs. Texas A&M (-9.0)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Texas A&M is a 10-2 team dressed as a 6-6 disappointment. Now that Mike Sherman has been fired and the pressure is off, there’s a chance the team relaxes and the talent shines through.
2. Northwestern is really, really, really motivated. It won four straight to become bowl eligible before losing to Michigan State, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is treating this game like an audition to see who in the program wants to step up and shine for next year.
3. Texas A&M is seventh in the nation in total offense and Northwestern is ninth in the country in passing efficiency.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: 1948. That’s the last time Northwestern won a bowl game, losing its last seven. Texas A&M is on a five game bowl losing streak with the last win coming in the 2001 GalleryFurniture.com Bowl.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. DE Damontre Moore, Soph. Texas A&M
2. QB Dan Persa, Sr. Northwestern
3. WR Ryan Swope, Jr. Texas A&M

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE TEXAS A&M in a rout!

December 31, 2011 San Francisco, CA
Fight Hunger Bowl 3:30 PM ESPN
UCLA vs. Illinois (-2.0)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. The two lame-duck teams might be just mediocre enough to put together a strong game. Neither one has a head coach to rely on going into next year, but both eras will want to end with a bang.
2. The Illinois defensive line is worth the price of admission. Whitney Mercilus leads the nation in sacks and will be a first round draft pick.
3. UCLA doesn’t give up. It might not be very good, but it’ll put out a full sixty minutes of effort. It’s going to come into the bowl game ready to try. It doesn’t want to end the year as the 6-8 bowl team.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: UCLA lost three of its last four games and were blown out by Utah, USC, and Oregon by a combined score of 130 to 37. Illinois is the only team in college football history to start the season 6-0 and end it 6-6.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. DE Whitney Mercilus, Jr. Illinois
2. RB Johnathan Franklin, Jr. UCLA
3. WR A.J. Jenkins, Sr. Illinois

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE ILLINOIS to both win and cover!

December 31, 2011 El Paso, TX
Sun Bowl 2:00 PM CBS
Georgia Tech (-3½) vs. Utah

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. The Georgia Tech offense is always worth the watch. It’s third in the nation in rushing and led the ACC in total offense and scoring offense. However ...
2. Utah is seventh in the nation against the run and led the Pac-12 in scoring defense and pass efficiency defense.
3. Eight of the last 12 were decided by seven points or fewer, and some of the ones that weren’t – last year’s Notre Dame win over Miami and UCLA’s 50-38 win over Northwestern in 2005 – were entertaining.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The Georgia Tech offense doesn’t really work when teams have time to prepare to stop it. The Yellow Jackets have lost six bowls in a row, even before Paul Johnson took over.
WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. RB Tevin Washington, Jr. Georgia Tech
2. RB John White, Jr. Utah
3. LB Julian Burnett, Jr. Georgia Tech

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE UTAH to beat the spread!

December 29, 2011 San Antonio, TX
Alamo Bowl 9:00 PM ESPN
Baylor (-9.0) vs. Washington

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. It’s Robert Griffin III and a Baylor offense that averages 571 yards and 43.5 points per game. It’s college football’s most exciting attack led by its most exciting player.
2. Washington rose up and shocked the bowl world with a stomping of Nebraska in last year’s Holiday Bowl. Could head coach Steve Sarkisian have a magic formula for the big games with time to prepare? The Baylor defense is awful; the Huskies should be able to keep up.
3. Talk about motivation, this is Baylor’s second bowl appearance since 1994 and the team hasn’t won one since 1992.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Washington isn’t very good. It lost four of five games before closing out with a win over Washington State. The offense hasn’t been able to find its groove and the defense isn’t in place to keep RGIII in check.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. RB Terrance Ganaway, Sr. Baylor
2. RB Chris Polk, Jr. Washington
3. WR Kendall Wright, Sr. Baylor

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE BAYLOR in a BLOWOUT! RDC2 - R.G. III (Whatever his "Moniker Is" ... Puts a Stamp on THE HEISMAN!)

December 29, 2011 Orlando, FL
Champs Sports Bowl 5:30 PM ESPN
Florida State (-3.0) vs. Notre Dame

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl

1. It’s Florida State vs. Notre Dame. It might be better on name recognition than actual production this year, but it’s still a good-sounding matchup. Neither program is at the level it wants to be, but the wheels are in motion for both to do huge things over the next few years with great talent bases in place.
2. One way or another, Notre Dame will be a storyline this offseason. If the Irish get blown out and finish 8-5, Brian Kelly could be on a wee bit of a hot seat. However, with a good win over the Seminoles, and after last year’s great recruiting class maturing, the excitement could be sky high.
3. Florida State is second in the nation in run defense, first in punting, and has one of the best pass rushes in college football. The Noles could put on a dominant defensive show that could set the tone for a big offseason. The team was close in its four losses and might just need a little more maturity.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The Florida State defense. It hasn’t allowed more than 19 points since October 8, a span of seven games and it could shut down the Irish cold. Notre Dame’s offense got worse as the season went on.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. DE Brandon Jenkins, Jr. Florida State
2. RB Cierre Wood, Jr. Notre Dame
3. P Shawn Powell, Sr. Florida State

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE FLORIDA STATE to both win and cover!

December 28, 2011 San Diego, CA
Holiday Bowl 8:00 PM ESPN
Texas (-3½) vs. California

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Both teams are on the upswing. Cal is young and improving, winning three of its last four games. Texas might have lost three of its last four, but the young talent is undeniable
. 2. Case McCoy is one of the hot new quarterbacks. The Texas sophomore is coming off a huge passing game – even with a slew of picks – in the loss to Baylor.
3. Cal’s defensive front is one of the most aggressive in America, ranking fifth in the nation and first in the Pa-12 in tackles for loss. The D led the league in pass defense.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The Holiday might have been the most consistently disappointing bowl game over the last five years. Six of the last seven games have been blowouts. One way or another, this has the potential to make it seven of eight.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. WR Keenan Allen, Soph. California
2. WR Jaxon Shipley, Fr. Texas
3. RB Isi Sofele, Jr. California

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Another "great line" set in "Vegas" ... I'll TAKE TEXAS by just 4.0!

December 27, 2011 Detroit, MI
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl 4:30 PM ESPN
Western Michigan vs. Purdue (-2.0)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. It might seem like a mid-September non-conference matchup, but it should be as entertaining as any December Bowl. Western Michigan’s offense hung 63 points on Toledo and 68 on Akron over the last three weeks and scored 45 points or more in four of the final seven games.
2. Purdue finally got past all the injury issues and all the adversity to get to a bowl game. It might only be the Little Caesars Bowl against a MAC team, but it’s a big deal for a program that’s been looking for positive steps forward. The BCS-league team will try; that matters in early bowl games.
3. The bowl game has been terrific over the last four years with the four games decided by a grand total of 14 points. Purdue’s 51-48 shootout win over Central Michigan in 2007 was a thriller.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: It might seem crazy, but can the Big Ten team play with the MAC team? WMU QB Alex Carder is expected to be healthy after missing the regular season finale, and the offense has the potential to blow up against a mediocre Purdue defense. The Boilermakers don’t have a high-octane offense.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. WR Jordan White, Sr. Western Michigan
2 DT Kawann Short, Jr. Purdue
3. QB Alex Carder, Jr. Western Michigan

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE WESTERN MICHIGAN in an upset ... and the OVER (59.0) looks promising as well!

December 26, 2011 Shreveport, LA
Independence Bowl 5:00 PM ESPN Missouri (-4.0) vs. North Carolina

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. Missouri ended the year hot winning four of its last five games and coming close to pulling off a comeback in the three point loss at Baylor.
2. The North Carolina run defense is among the best in the ACC. Quinton Coples lads a talented front line that can be a brick wall at times.
3. Somewhat quietly, the Independence Bowl has been terrific. Six of the last seven and ten of the last 12 have been decided by a touchdown or less.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: North Carolina has been wildly inconsistent offensively, getting shut out by NC State. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last six games. Missouri’s attack hasn’t exactly been reliable on a regular basis since losing star running back Henry Josey.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. QB James Franklin, Jr. Missouri
2. RB Giovani Bernard, Fr. North Carolina
3. WR T.J. Moe, Jr. Missouri

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE MISSOURI by a TD!

December 22, 2011 Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Bowl 8:00 PM ESPN
Boise State (-13½) vs. Arizona State

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. There was a time in the middle of the season when this matchup would’ve been special. Arizona State was 5-1 and Boise State was shooting for a BCS game.
2. The Broncos are a missed field goal away from playing in the Sugar Bowl – at least. There’s a chance they could’ve ended up in the national championship with the right PR push.
3. Arizona State really does have the talent to put on a great show. The experience was there to win the Pac-12 title.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Arizona State went into the tank over the second half of the season losing five of its last six games including gacks to Washington State, Arizona, and UCLA. If Boise State tries, it should be able to roll at will. Boise State always tries.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. QB Brock Osweiler, Jr. Arizona State
2. OT Nate Potter, Sr. Boise State
3. WR Gerell Robinson, Sr. Arizona State

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I'll TAKE BOISE STATE by 21!

HERE'S AN EXAMPLE OF WHEN I "SHOULDA" TRUSTED MY SOFTWARE ... INSTEAD OF MY "GUT!" - SORRY FOLKS!

December 17, 2011 New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Bowl 9:00 PM ESPN
Louisiana-Layfayette vs. San Diego State (-4½)

Three Reasons Why You Have To Watch This Bowl
1. San Diego State is on a roll winning four of its last five games with the lone loss coming to Boise State. Last year the Aztecs destroyed Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl; they know how to rise to the occasion.
2. It’s the best season in Louisiana-Lafayette history. The program has never been in a bowl and it’s going to treat this like the BCS championship. The Ragin’ Cajuns should play at a high level.
3. The Sun Belt has won four of the last five New Orleans Bowls. The winner has scored 41 points or more in four of the last five games, and this should be a shootout.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Louisiana-Lafayette lost its last two games. The defense has struggled and should have huge problems keeping the Aztec offense under wraps. If San Diego State plays its best game, this won’t be pretty.

WHO TO WATCH DEPARTMENT:
1. RB Ronnie Hillman, Soph. San Diego State
2. QB Blaine Gautier, Jr. Louisiana-Lafayette
3. CB Larry Parker, Sr. San Diego State

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: A tough one folks ... my software is calling for an upset ... yet my "gut" TAKES SAN DIEGO STATE to both win and cover!

Saints (-3.0) vs. Titans Dec 11, 1:00 PM FOX

But it will be a very tough task since the playoff-bound New Orleans Saints bring their four-game win streak and top-ranked offense to Nashville. The Saints beat up the Detroit Lions on Sunday night, 31-17, to notch number four and move to within a game from clinching the NFC South, a goal they can reach with a victory on the road against the Titans this Sunday. Oddsmakers are listing the Saints as strong candidates for notching that NFC South division title, as they opened as 3.5-point favorites on the road when the initial point spread was put on the board late Sunday. Early wagering has been slow to start the week, and the point spread has only moved up to minus -4 at a few offshore sportsbooks so far, otherwise most books are still sitting at Saints by 3.5, however a few off-shore books have "lowered the line" to 3.0. The over/under total opened at 48.5 and has yet to move in either direction at a large majority of sporsbooks, but the few that have changed their listed total have moved the half-point in both directions to 48 or up to 49. I must admit, I am a bit surprised at the total opening below 50 since the Saints own the top-ranked offense in the NFL (448 ypg) and the 2nd-ranked scoring offense at 33 points a game (32.8). Quarterback Drew Brees has weapons galore at his disposal in New Orleans, with four-deep at wideout, the league’s top tight end and three different running backs that make the Saints offense nearly impossible to stop.

The Titans offense has mimicked the team’s increased production of late, scoring nearly 26 points a game (a full touchdown more than their season average) while winning three out of their last four to make a surprising late-season surge. What isn’t much of a surprise is how the Titans are making their push on offense, since Johnson has finally shaken off the rust of a prolonged holdout and missed training camp and offseason with three 100-yard games and a dangerous 7.5 yards per carry average during the Titans run. Both teams will be tested to stop these two teams on offense too. On paper the Saints have a decent run defense (114 ypg – 16th), and they have stood up well against running teams the past few weeks (TB, Atl.), but they haven’t faced a speed running back like Johnson at all this season. The Saints defense already was blitz-heavy on passing downs, so I expect them to bring safety Roman Harper up into the box on early downs as well to force the Titans to beat them with Matt Hasselbeck’s arm and a depleted receiving crew. Plus, the Saints best defense in recent weeks has been predictability … as in Brees and the offense have rolled to double-digit leads so quickly that teams have literally been forced to abandon the running game entirely. Which brings us to the Titans defense and their ability to stop the Saints from running it up. Tennessee is a classic bend but don’t break defense, giving up big yardage (355 ypg – 18th) but very little scoring damage (19.1 ppg – 6th) week to week. It should be noted however that passing teams have given the Titans defense the most trouble (Houston 41 points, Pitt 38 points, Carolina 30 points), and the Saints and Brees certainly qualify as a strong passing team. The last time these two met on the field was back in 2007, when the Titans defense forced Brees into an uncharacteristic four interceptions in a 31-14 upset (4.5-point dogs) victory in the Superdome. Tennessee also won the previous game, in 2003, with a 27-12 victory at home behind the duo of Steve McNair and Eddie George. In fact, if you go back to 1996 the Titans have won four straight games against the Saints, and have covered the point spread in all but one of them (3-0-1 ATS).

The over is probably the best betting trend bet on the total, since it’s 5-2 in New Orleans last seven as a road favorite and 11-4-1 for the Titans as a home dog (in L16). The over is also 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games in December.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I expect Tennessee to play inspired ball on Sunday against the Saints, at home in front of an energized crowd. But I just don’t think they have the weapons to hang with the Saints for four full quarters, even though the Saints are not as good on the road as they are on turf in the dome. A late score puts this one over in a backdoor style. I’m taking the Saints minus the 3.0 points. I'll also make a small wager on THE OVER (48.0).

Jets (-3) vs. Redskins Dec. 4, 1:00, CBS

Clemson at South Carolina (-3.0) Nov. 26, 7:45, ESPN

From The Tigers' Viewpoint:" Erase the Wolfpack game from your data bank. It was an anomaly, or was it? The Tigers are poised to get back to where they were earlier in the year, scoring points in droves. The South Carolina offense simply won’t be able to keep pace with Clemson on this night. In the four games with FBS opponents since Lattimore went down, the Gamecocks averaged just 18 points, and got only tepid support from QB Connor Shaw. Shaw has been so mediocre, it’s neutralized WR Alshon Jeffery, which is no small feat. The Tigers, on the other hand, have playmakers galore, especially now that freshman phenom Sammy Watkins is expected back after missing last week’s game. The one time that the ‘Cocks saw as many good athletes as they will this weekend, they yielded 435 yards and four offensive scores to Arkansas. Clemson can exact a similar amount of damage behind the passing of Tajh Boyd, running of Andre Ellington and field-stretching ability of Watkins, WR DeAndre Hopkins and TE Dwayne Allen.

From The Gamecocks' Sideline: This just might be the best defense that Clemson sees all year. How have the Gamecocks remained afloat since having their backfield gutted? That would be the work of the D. This is a grown-up unit that ranks No. 5 nationally, and has allowed only four touchdown passes over the last nine games. If Watkins and Hopkins are going to excel, they’ll need to earn it against a ferocious secondary led by CB Stephon Gilmore and S D.J. Swearinger. South Carolina is a fast and disruptive unit that favors swarm tackling as a means of getting its point across. An average and hobbled Tigers O-line will need to pay special attention to linemen Melvin Ingram and Jadeveon Clowney, and spur Antonio Allen, who’ve shown a penchant for taking over games with big plays.

What To Watch Out For: Clemson has had all kinds of problems stopping the run this season, allowing 4.5 yards a carry. Will South Carolina be able to exploit that group this weekend? In Lattimore’s absence, the Gamecocks have turned to another underclassman, 6-1, 223-pound true freshman Brandon Wilds. By and large, he’s done a solid job on the ground, rushing for more than 100 yards in three of the last four games. More of the same will be needed this weekend, because it’s clear that Shaw is in no position to carry the offense on his shoulders. South Carolina’s biggest concern when it has the ball will be to keep DE Andre Branch and NG Brandon Thompson out of the backfield. The ‘Cocks have had issues in pass protection, and will start a pair of freshmen up front, LG A.J. Cann and RT Mike Matulis.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Having played The Citadel last Saturday, South Carolina has basically had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’ll be ready. It’s late November, when physical defenses are often ahead of speedy offenses. The Gamecocks are going to make the Tigers earn all of their points, and playing at Williams-Brice Stadium is no small edge. Clemson hasn’t been the same team it was in September and early October, a trend that’ll continue in Columbia. South Carolina, with no game to worry about next weekend, will fly all over the field on defense, creating the turnovers and key defensive stops that help secure a rare third consecutive victory in this series. Sadly ... I'll TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA to win and cover!

Dolphins at Cowboys (-7.0) November 24th 4:15 pm, NFL NETWORK

The Cowboys will enter this Thursday's contest fresh off a hard fought 27-24 overtime victory over the Redskins. The win marked the Cowboys 4th victory in their last 5 games. This week the Cowboys have the opportunity to get right back in the thick of the NFC East race with a win over the Dolphins. One big reason for the Cowboys turning the corner this season after such a slow start can be given credit to rookie running back DeMarco Murray. Murray has posted 674 yards on the ground in the last 5 games which is more than any other running back in the NFL over that time period. The success in the ground game has taken some much needed pressure off QB Tony Romo whose play drew a lot of criticism earlier this year. In fact, Romo has not thrown an interception in 3 straight weeks despite tossing 8 touchdown passes. In last week's win over Washington, Romo 23 of 37 passing for 292 yards with 3 scores. If Romo can keep that type of production going and Murray can keep pounding out yards on the ground, the Cowboys should be able to make a run at the playoffs which is good news if you consider this team was just 3-4 a few weeks ago. WR Dez Bryant has big play potential and gives the Cowboys a homerun threat in the passing game. Bryant had a few big catches late in the win over Washington and has put together some solid performances in recent weeks. As many know, Bryant has been bothered with a hip injury this season but appears to be recovering. Miami's defense has not played well against prominent receivers this year so it will be interesting to see if Bryant can make his presence felt when the two teams collide this Thursday.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT Despite winning 4 of the last 5 games, the Cowboys really have not played that great. This team was blown out by the Eagles and then struggled against both Seattle and Washington. This Miami offense is really playing well right now and I believe they will have something for the Cowboys this Thursday. Although my "calculations" have MIAMI beating the spread ... I'm making a wager on THE OVER (43.0)!

Kansas State at Texas (-10.0) Nov. 19, 8:00 pm, FX

OK Folks ... here's the deal! How many college football programs can say they own Texas? Even more, considering how bad things were before Bill Snyder showed up, how many college football elite programs can Kansas State say it has a winning record against? It’s not like it’s been a one-sided series, but again, considering the histories of the two teams, Kansas State’s 6-5 record is still impressive. Even more amazing is that three of UT’s five wins came in 1942 and earlier, with the first a 46-0 victory in 1912. Even with the ascension of Texas into the elite of the elite, and with Kansas State dipping, the series still tilted the Wildcats’ way with a 39-14 win last year, a 41-21 win in 2007, a 45-42 stunner in 2006, and a blowout in 1999 on the way to a 5-2 mark since the Big 12 was formed. All the pieces are there for the stunning trend to continue with Kansas State coming off a four overtime thriller against Texas A&M that belongs in the discussion of the best games of 2011. Quarterback Collin Klein has emerged as, arguably, the best player in America who’s nowhere near the Heisman discussion, and Snyder deserves to be a slam-dunk coach of the year winner for taking a team that wasn’t expected to do anything and making it a possible ten-win killer. Texas continues to rebuild and reload from its disastrous 2010, and while that’s generally understood among the fan base, after a clunker of a 17-5 loss to Missouri, and with road trips to Texas A&M and Baylor to finish things up, a second straight second half slide would turn the heat up in a big way going into next year. But was the loss to Missouri an aberration, or was it a sign of things to come? Beating Kansas State on Senior Day would do wonders for the season, and would keep the possibility of a ten-win campaign alive.

From The Wildcats' perspective: The Texas run defense is about to get pushed. Yes, it’s tenth in the nation against the run, allowing 101 yards per game, and yes, it’s given up just seven rushing touchdowns on the year while allowing just one in the last five games. However, last week it was exposed a bit by a team with a mobile quarterback, and now it has to deal with Collin Klein. Oklahoma State was able to run for 202 yards on the Longhorns, but most of the production came on one huge dash; the Longhorn run defense bottled up Joseph Randle. Last week, Missouri’s James Franklin only finished with 33 rushing yards, but he was able to take off from time to time and kept the Longhorn D on its heels, while Kendial Lawrence did the dirty work running for 106 yards and a score on just 18 carries. This week the Kansas State offensive line should allow Klein and company time to let the plays and holes develop. Defensively, Kansas State hasn’t had too many problems slowing down the run, at least until Texas A&M ran for 272 yards last week; the pass defense has been the bigger issue. Texas can throw a bit, but it has to win by running the ball, and the backfield is banged up. More on that in a moment.

And looking "Through Longhorn Eyes:" Kansas State needs a few elements of its winning formula to work perfectly to win. First and foremost, the Wildcats have to control the game by controlling the clock to keep their defense off the field, and they have to do it by a large margin. They’re No. 1 in the nation in time of possession, holding on to the ball for over 35 minutes per game, but Texas is fifth in the nation holding on to the ball for over 34 minutes per game. By winning the time battle, Kansas State has to control the clock, and it has to do that by converting on third downs. The Wildcats are converting 46.4% of their chances, but Texas is good on third downs, too, converting 45.5% of the time, and the defense is among the best in the country at getting off the field on third downs. The third key piece of the puzzle is turnover margin. Kansas State isn’t talented enough to beat most teams it’s beaten so far, but it’s been able to capitalize time and again on mistakes, while ranking ninth in the nation in turnovers. The Texas offense has had its issue, but it’s not screwing up too badly with just three turnovers in the last three games and with just 19 penalties in the last four. However, even if Texas matches Kansas State in all the fringe areas …

What To Watch Out For: The backfield needs to heal up in a hurry. The Longhorn attack only came up with 76 rushing yards and 171 through the air against Mizzou, but star tailback Malcolm Brown was hurting with a turf toe problem and rising receiver Jaxon Shipley was out with a knee problem. The two are still banged up and are doubtful, while Joe Bergeron is still limping through a hamstring injury and Fozzy Whitaker left last week’s game with a leg injury after running just four times for 15 yards. That means quarterbacks Case McCoy and David Ash have to do more with Ash needing to start pushing the passing attack while taking more chances. Kansas State doesn’t have any issues with its offense, mainly because its one key piece, Klein, is doing everything. A workhorse of workhorses, he ran 35 times against Texas A&M for 103 yards and five scores a week after running 29 times for 144 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma State. He passed the 1,000-yard rushing mark while also throwing for more than 230 yards for his second straight game. It would be nice if sophomore running back John Hubert started doing more, but his workload has decreased a bit and he hasn’t had a 100-yard day since rumbling for 126 against Missouri in early October. As long as Klein is rolling, though, the Kansas State offense will work.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT Can the Texas defense stop one man? Texas A&M’s excellent defensive front couldn’t slow down Klein, and while the Longhorns will have a little more success, they won’t be able to shut him or the running game down cold. On the other side, Ash and the passing game will try to exploit the Wildcat secondary, but he’s not Brandon Weeden or Ryan Tannehill quite yet. Kansas State is playing too well at the moment, while the Texas offense is a Mack Brown-described “mess.” The Texas D will step up, but it won’t do enough in a tight thriller that’ll come down to the end. I'll TAKE KANSAS STATE to BEAT THE SPREAD!

Duke at Virginia (-10) Nov. 12, 3:00, RSN

From The Blue Devils Viewpoint: In order to pull the upset, the Blue Devils will need to rely on the sloppy nature of the Virginia offense. The Cavaliers have not been an efficient bunch in 2011, ranking above just North Carolina in the ACC in turnovers lost. They’re especially young and erratic at quarterback, where Michael Rocco is prone to making poor decisions, and occasionally telegraphing his throws. While it’s not customary for the Duke defense to shoulder such influence, it’ll be up to the unit’s best playmakers, LB Kelby Brown and S Matt Daniels, to affect a change in the tempo and momentum of this game.

From The "Cav's" Sidelines: Typically, Duke needs to have success through the air in order to win games. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, that’s unlikely to happen this weekend. Without too much help up front, the Cavaliers have been stingy versus the pass all season, ranking 20th nationally in pass efficiency defense. The visitors will have a tough time improving their 2011 total of seven touchdown passes against the likes of all-star CB Chase Minnifield and safeties Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosley. While Virginia has been an average passing team, the ground game will bruise the Duke front seven with backs Perry Jones and Kevin Parks, who’ve combined for 1,320 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns.

What To Watch Out For: If the Cavaliers want to be taken seriously as a Coastal Division contender, they better locate a more consistent pass rush … soon. The team finishes the season with crucial contests against Florida State and Virginia Tech, both of whom will be unkind to the UVa D if given too much time to operate. The squad that’s produced just four sacks in the last four games needs to use the Duke offensive line as a test kitchen in order to mine different ways to get DE Cam Johnson and DT Matt Conrath into the backfield on a more regular basis.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Compared to the opponent, Virginia’s bigger challenge this week will be to remain focused on one game at a time, while avoiding the emotional swings of a promising season. Not only are the Cavaliers playing far better than Duke these days, but they’ve also got the edge in intangibles, such as being at home and busting with confidence. While UVa could be prone to a slow start this weekend, it’ll regroup in time to avert disaster, riding the two-headed running game and the steady play of the defense to a victory. I'll TAKE VIRGINIA to both win and cover!

Seahawks at Cowboys (-11½) Nov 6, 1:00, FOX

With both teams hoping for a quick case of amnesia to forget last week’s debacles, this week they’ll strap it up again with the hopes that a new week brings new results in order to get them both back on the winning track before it’s too late. Oddsmakers are expecting the Cowboys to bounce back big, but no so much for the Seahawks, as they set the opening point spread for Sunday’s NFC clash with Dallas as huge 12.5-point favorites. The number has come down a little since it’s release, with most sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore dropping the hook to list the Cowboys at minus -12 with a few token -11.5s, but that’s about all the further it has moved since early Monday morning. All of the betting line movement for this game has come on the over/under total. The total originally opened at 42.5 early in the week but has since shot up to 44 or 44.5 by midweek as bettors are pounding the under with the early steam at the window.

The two offenses in this game are on opposite sides of the spectrum. Romo and the Cowboys are ranked 8th in the NFL with an average of 394.3 yards a game, most of it via the passing game at 279.6 yards per game (7th). With running back Felix Jones still nursing a sore ankle, and longtime backups Marion Barber and Tashard Choice now employed elsewhere, the Cowboys have been using rookie DeMarco Murray out of the backfield and the former Oklahoma star has done very well in his two games as the main weapon out of the backfield (327 yards, 9.9 yards per carry). The Cowboys offense didn’t necessarily play bad against the Eagles last week, they didn’t really get much of a chance with very little time of possession and only 45 offensive plays. Most of those plays came in mop-up time too when the game was long over. The Seahawks on the other hand have struggled mightily all season long on offense, ranked 31st in the league at 284 yards a game and 31st in the league at rushing with an average of 77.7 yards a game. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson returned from his pectoral injury to have a decent game last week against the Bengals (21-of-40, 323 yards), but he’s not exactly a front line starter in this league and as a result the Seahawks only average barely over 200 yards a game in the air (206.3 ypg – 24th). Because of the Seahawks lack of a passing game Marshawn Lynch has faced eight-man boxes all season long, which has contributed to their lack of explosiveness on offense and hindered their ability to score (15.6 ppg – 27th).

But this week they may gain a little bit of an advantage because the Dallas defense is a wounded unit, at all three levels. Nose tackle Jeremiah Ratliff (leg – questionable), linebacker Sean Lee (wrist – out) and corner Mike Jenkins (hamstring – out) all were injured in the Eagles game last week, and it’s not like the Cowboys were exceptionally deep on defense to begin with before the injuries. With issues on offense the Seahawks defense has been forced to play a lot of snaps this season, and even though they have decent numbers (13th overall, 11th vs. the run, 19th in scoring), they have been unable to close out games late in the fourth because of the wear and tear they have been forced to endure and the hands of a poor offense. The last two times these two teams have faced each other have turned into poundings by the Cowboys, including a 38-17 victory in 2009 and a 34-9 victory in 2008. Both games were in Dallas, and both games the Cowboys covered a large number in the process (10-points favorites in ’09; 11.5-points in ’08). In fact, the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Seahawks, even though they are just 3-2 SU in those five games.

Neither team has been kind to bettors, since most of the betting trends in are dismal for both teams. Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog, but when you extend it out to a larger sample the Seahawks are just 6-20-1 ATS as a road dog. The Cowboys are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as the favorite, and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite, so take them at your own risk. Even though the under is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these two, it’s actually the over that has some strong betting trends in its favor for this game. The over is 18-7-1 in the Seahawks last 26 games versus the NFC, 7-2 in their last nine road games and 14-4 in their last 18 games overall. The over is also 10-2 in the Cowboys last 12 home games, 8-2 as a home favorite and 12-4 in their last 16 versus the NFC.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I fully expect the Cowboys to bounce back here and save face from a terrible Sunday Night game versus the rival Eagles, but I hate laying up to 12 points to do it. I know the trends say over, but with the total already jumping up a few points since it opened, it appears just about everyone else is thinking the same thought. I’m going to break the trend and play the anti-public angle in this game, so I’m taking the THE UNDER of 45 in this game, and if you can get the (-11½), take THE COWBOYS to win and cover!

U.S.C. (-21) at Colorado Nov. 4, 9:00, ESPN

From the Trojans' sideline: Of all the problems that the Buffs have been facing in 2011, none has been bigger than the play of the porous defense. Now 117th nationally in scoring D, Colorado has yielded at least 45 points in each of the last four games. With the Trojans in town, it’s unlikely that the Buffaloes’ defensive woes will come to an end. USC possesses too many potent weapons for an inexperienced and overmatched opponent, including QB Matt Barkley and his precocious receivers, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee. It has also been getting substantially more help from the ground game, namely RB Curtis McNeal, who’s plowed for 349 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games. A properly motivated Trojans team will have no problems going up and down the field on this Colorado defense.

From the "Buffs" viewpoint: While improved, especially versus the run, the USC defense is still the kind of erratic defense that can be beaten for big plays. While admittedly against better competition, Troy has allowed no fewer than 41 points in three of the last five games, and ranks 102nd nationally against the pass. Plus, some kind of letdown off last week is virtually unavoidable. The Buffaloes still have their veteran, Tyler Hansen, behind center, and the offense could be getting two huge pieces back in time for Friday night. Leading rusher Rodney Stewart and receiver Paul Richardson are now listed as probable to return from knee injuries.

What To Watch Out For: The Trojans are nearly as young as the Buffaloes this year, but their toddlers are noticeably more talented than the ones in black and gold. Underclassmen, such as Woods and Lee, are making plenty of plays on offense, but the defense has been birthing headline-makers as well. Linebackers Dion Bailey and Hayes Pullard, in particular, have become two of the more prominent members of a unit that’s been evolving on the fly. Bailey, in his second year out of Lakewood (Calif.) High School, flies all over the field, and plays a lot bigger than his 6-0, 200-pound safety-sized frame.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: USC can go through the motions on Friday night, and still get out of Boulder with a comfortable victory. On talent alone, the Trojans ought to put a bow on this game before both teams head to the locker room for halftime. Barkley and his supporting cast will roll with ease through the patchwork Colorado D, piling up 500 total yards of offense before ceding some rare reps to the second and third-stringers. The brief spark provided by the hopeful returns of Stewart and Richardson won’t be nearly enough to compensate for Troy’s offensive prowess. I'll TAKE Southern California to win and cover!

Stanford (-7.0) at USC Oct. 29, 8:00, ABC

From the Cardinal Sideline: There’s Luck, but there’s a whole lot more on the Farm. No. 12 is one of the nation’s premier all-around players, the Heisman favorite in many circles. However, he’s just one cog in the Cardinal machine. This is a complete program that can hurt the Trojans in myriad different ways. In last week’s blowout win, Luck only needed to complete 16 passes because his teammates rushed for a school-record 446 yards behind a dominant offensive line. The blockers, such as LT Jonathan Martin and RG David DeCastro, don’t get nearly enough credit for allowing only two sacks all season, and opening gaping holes. The Stanford defense has been another hidden gem, ranking among the nation’s leaders in sacks, run defense and scoring. The Chase Thomas-led, attack-from-all-angles unit will create an intriguing matchup with LT Matt Kalil and a USC front wall that’s been almost as stingy in pass protection as the Cardinal.

From the U.S.C. Viewpoint: The Trojans are beginning to locate their old swagger, which is troubling news for the rest of the league. At times in the last three games, Troy showed flashes of some of Pete Carroll’s old teams. It’s plugging holes on defense, and employing balance and pop with the ball. USC will continue to ride the strong right arm of Barkley, which is a good thing since Stanford has been most vulnerable in pass defense. Plus, the Cardinal could be without its best defensive back, S Delano Howell, for a second straight game. The D might have corralled a good U-Dub offense a week ago, but the Trojans present a different set of challenges on the outside in the form of dynamite wide receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee. Plus, backs Marc Tyler and Curtis McNeal can do for USC what Stepfan Taylor does for Stanford’s offensive variety and diversity.

What to look for: The USC secondary is coming off its two best games of the season, but can that trend continue this week? The maligned Trojans pass defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown through the air in eight quarters, but Zach Maynard and Tommy Rees aren’t quite in the same zip code as Luck. The junior is basically an unpaid pro passer, both from a physical and an intellectual perspective. Besides the obvious physical traits, what makes the heady quarterback so dangerous is his ability to see the whole field, and check down when his primary targets are covered. He also makes outstanding use of his throng of gifted tight ends. Coby Fleener, Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz will be a particular handful for a set of Trojans linebackers comprised of two rookies, Hayes Pullard and Dion Bailey, and a veteran, Chris Galippo, who does his finest work against the run.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: If anything was learned from last weekend, it’s that Stanford can raise the level of its play when the competition improves. The Cardinal toyed with its first six opponents, but turned it up a few notches when Washington visited a week ago. Now, it won’t handle USC with such ease, but it will pass its toughest road test of 2011. Barkley will have success over the top, even finishing with comparable numbers to Luck. Stanford, however, has too many options on both sides of the ball to turn this game into a mano-a-mano battle between the quarterbacks. The Cardinal will once again pile up big numbers on the ground, leaving the Trojans dazed and confused on defense. Spearheaded by the better overall team, the Cardinal will pull away after halftime, attracting another cross-section of believers before the weekend has ended. I'll TAKE STANFORD to both win and cover!

Penn State (-4.0) at Northwestern Oct. 22, 7:00, Big Ten Network

From The 'Cats' Viewpoint: Penn State doesn’t score. The Nittany Lion defense has been the biggest difference with turnovers and big stops bailing out the offense time and again, but Northwestern hasn’t been giving up the ball enough for PSU to count on getting mistakes. NU has only given the ball away six times, and while five of the turnover came in the last three games, this isn’t a team that makes a slew of big mistakes. Penn State managed more than 16 points in just three games this year, and two of those came against Indiana State and Eastern Michigan. Northwestern’s D could use a big of a break. Persa might not be running well like he did last year, but his arm has been more than fine throwing for four scores against Illinois while winging it around for 331 yards against Michigan and 242 against Iowa. He’s accurate and his command are there, and while he’s not moving as well as he should, he’s throwing in midseason form. The Wildcats can rely on their quarterback to produce. As bad as the NU secondary might be playing, Penn State can’t count on its quarterback to take advantage.

Who To Look Out For Department: With Derek Moye out with a foot injury, Penn State needed a receiver to step up and take charge as the No. 1 guy. Justin Brown tried last week against Purdue with four catches for 86 yards, but he wasn’t exactly a reliable playmaker for a full sixty minutes. He’s trying, though, catching 23 passes for 311 yards but failing to get into the end zone. Mostly a punt returner so far, he needs to take advantage of the bad Wildcat secondary and get the ball on the move as much as possible. He has home run hitting ability, and now he has to start swinging. No one’s happier that Dan Persa is back than Northwestern senior receiver Jeremy Ebert, who had a decent first few games of the year, catching two touchdown passes against Army, but followed it up with three touchdowns against Illinois when Persa came back. Ebert didn’t have a 100-yard day on the year, but last week he caught 13 passes for 107 yards and a score against Iowa after making 11 grabs for 86 yards against Michigan. Last year against Penn State he went for 111 yards on six catches, and he’ll the main man for the offense this week. Expect him to be targeted at least 15 times. As bad as the NU secondary might be playing,

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The Penn State defense is playing too well. Penn State’s offense is moving the ball, but it’s not scoring. Northwestern’s offense isn’t moving the ball, but it’s scoring. With the passing game working just enough to get by, Penn State will have a balanced day with production coming from several places, while the defense will stuff the Wildcat ground game could on the way to yet another tough, ugly win. I'll TAKE PENN STATE to Win and Cover!

Stanford (-21.0) at Washington State Oct. 15, 7:30, Versus

Using Stanford's Viewpoint: The Cardinal has yet to really put its foot on the gas offensively, yet still ranks seventh nationally at 46 points a game. It has way too much firepower and balance for a middling Washington State defense that’s particularly soft in the secondary. Stanford’s success is built on more than just QB Andrew Luck, RB Stepfan Taylor and the team’s wave of sure-handed wide receivers and tight ends. The unheralded heroes reside on the offensive line, a physical group that leads the country in sacks allowed. LT Jonathan Martin and RG David DeCastro, in particular, are impenetrable forces who’ll help keep the attack rolling on the Palouse.

From The Cougars Perspective: Stanford is going to score. The Cougars believe they can keep pace, even against a defense that leads the Pac-12 in scoring and total defense. While starting QB Jeff Tuel has sat out to heal a broken clavicle, Marshall Lobbestael has stepped in to throw for 15 touchdowns and 1,570 yards. Redshirt freshman RB Rickey Galvin has provided some pop on the ground, but it’s the Washington State receivers who’ll cause the most consternation for the Stanford secondary. The Cardinal defensive backs, who really haven’t been tested so far this fall, will have their hands trying to slow down the playmaking trio of Jared Karstetter, Marquess Wilson and Isiah Barton.

"Keep Your Eye On Department": Everyone knows that the Luck-led offense is terrific, but the book is still out on the defense. Hey, the numbers are beyond reproach, including a No. 2 national ranking in run defense, and a No. 7 placement in sacks. The Wazzu passing game, though, presents a slightly tougher challenge than Stanford has faced in 2011. As always, the Cardinal will look to apply pressure from whatever angle is available. While the line has been rather quiet this fall, the linebackers, Chase Thomas, Trent Murphy and Max Bergen, share the pass rushing skills to keep the Washington linemen on their heels.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Martin Stadium will have a little more energy than normal with one of the nation’s top programs visiting. It won’t be enough to get the home team over the top. Washington State is certainly moving in the right direction under Wulff, but Stanford is out of its league. More than just talented, the Cardinal is mentally tough, which keeps it from stepping into bear traps. It’ll put on another offensive clinic in a comfortable victory, pulling away from the Cougars with more than 500 yards of total offense. I'll TAKE STANFORD to both win and cover!

Dolphins at Jets (-7½) October 17, 2011 8:30, ESPN

The Jets have gone to back-to-back AFC Championship games the past two season thanks in part to an offense that runs the football, controls the clock and keeps quarterback Mark Sanchez from having to win the game on his own, but that formula has disappeared in 2011. The Jets are only averaging 76.2 yards a game on the ground thus far, which ranks 31st in the 32-team NFL, and could be a big reason why the Jets have failed to put up wins in recent weeks. Part of the problem has been injuries along the offensive line, but there’s really no reason why the duo of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Without a strong running game Sanchez has shown his weakness at throwing the ball downfield (56.4 comp. %, 6.6 ypatt., 8 TD-5 INT) and the Jets offense as a whole has stubbed its toe with an average of just 297.4 yards a game (28th). The good news for Sanchez and the Jets is that the Miami defense is a shell of its former self, ranked 28th in overall yardage (414.5 ypg) and 25th in points allowed at 26 per game. Sanchez will also drool over the fact that the Dolphins pass defense has been cut apart by previous quarterbacks, to the tune of allowing 307 yards a game (31st).

When Miami has the ball they will likely try and run it to take some of the pressure off of Moore, something that they’ve had limited success doing thus far in 2011 (115.2 ypg rushing – 15th). The bigger question is who will run the ball, since offseason pickup Reggie Bush has been a flop and rookie Daniel Thomas has missed two of the Dolphins four games due to injury. Running the ball is the best option against the Jets defense too, since they are allowing 134.8 yards a game (26th) including 152 yards against the Patriots last week (4.3 ypc). Moore was 17-of-26 for 167 yards in relief of Henne against the Chargers, but he threw an interception and has had issues in protecting the football in his previous attempts as a starter in the NFL. The good news for Miami is that they seem to have the Jets number, especially on the road, as they have a three game winning streak over the Jets at the old Meadowlands and new MetLife Stadium. Last year they beat the Jets 10-6 in New York, the year before in 2009 they won both games against the Jets including a 30-25 decision on the road. All told there are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head games with a perfect 3-0 for both on the road.

The underdog has also enjoyed a 5-0 ATS mark in those same five games. The problem for the Dolphins is that they are just 1-5 ATS against the AFC East in their last six tries. The Jets haven’t been good to bettors either, going 5-13 in October over the past few seasons and a terrible 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games on Monday Night. With all of those betting trend numbers scaring you off the side bet, the best wager for this game could be THE OVER. The over is 8-2 in Miami’s last 10 road games, 22-7 in the Jets last 29 games overall, and 4-1 for both teams in their last five games in primetime on Monday Night Football. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: In a normal world I would never back the Jets as more than a touchdown favorite, but this is not a “normal” week between these AFC East rivals. The Jets desperately NEED this game, at home, to get back in the AFC playoff chase. I don’t really like it, but I’m taking THE JETS minus the 7.5-points here, as well as THE OVER (42.0).

Boston College at Clemson (-21) Oct. 8, 3:00, Raycom Sports

From The Eagles Sideline: From a psychological standpoint, this will be a challenging game for a Clemson squad that’s growing accustomed to high-profile, high-stakes showdowns over the past three weeks. And now here come the Eagles, who’ll arrive in Death Valley playing with absolutely nothing to lose. Knowing it can’t outgun the Tigers, Boston College will attempt to slow the game down. It’ll methodically run the ball with Montel Harris at a Clemson defense that’s been sporadic versus the run. On defense, the Eagles remain respectable, in large part because of the play of linebackers Luke Kuechly and Kevin Pierre-Louis. Kuechly is one of the game’s difference-makers, leading the country with 83 tackles.

From The Tigers Viewpoint: While those Boston College linebackers may help keep things close for a while, eventually the Tigers are going to break through with a flurry of backbreaking plays. They’ve simply got too much speed for the Eagles. In his first year as a starter, QB Tajh Boyd is playing like an All-ACC lock. The sophomore’s rapid maturation in coordinator Chad Morris’ system has helped the skill position players, like RB Andre Ellington, TE Dwayne Allen and receivers Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins, bloom. Once Clemson begins to light up the scoreboard, the one-note BC offense won’t have the necessary passing game to mount a comeback.

What To Watch Out For: Is the Clemson D that sacked Logan Thomas four times and held Virginia Tech to a field goal for real? The answer will dictate whether the Tigers are contenders for more than just an ACC title. The unit was sound in all phases, limiting the Hokies to 258 total yards. The face of the effort was clearly DE Andre Branch, who played as if his NFL future hinged on it. The senior was unstoppable, repeatedly schooling the Tech blockers for 11 tackles, five stops for loss and three sacks. With a little more of that kind of dominance from the pass rush, Clemson will take a giant leap forward toward becoming a complete team.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The threat of a Clemson letdown is real, but just not against this week’s opponent. The Tigers will get a break by playing at home versus a vastly inferior team. Boston College has already fallen at home to Duke and Wake Forest, an indication of its 2011 struggles. The diverse Clemson offense and improving D will be too much for a second-rate visitor. The Tigers will crank up an attack that took a week off in Blacksburg, peppering BC with close to 500 total yards and five trips into the end zone. I'll TAKE CLEMSON to both win and cover ... I'll also TAKE THE UNDER (56.0)

Eagles at Bills (-1½) Oct 9, 1:00, FOX

Ok folks ...There is panic in Philadelphia. The Eagles, once deemed the "Dream Team" after acquiring a slew of Pro Bowl-caliber players before the season, have lost three games in a row and have fallen to 1-3. The latest defeat was a monumental collapse to the San Francisco 49ers. How can the Eagles get back on track and comfort the angry fans? Only by getting a victory in Buffalo on Sunday against the Bills. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off their first loss of the season, a disappointing 23-20 defeat at Cincinnati which came after a monumental 34-31 win over the New England Patriots. The Bills started the season 3-0 but suffered their first setback last week after blowing a 17-6 lead. They allowed Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton to charge down the field and score a touchdown and then the Bengals got the ball back and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Bills just didn't move the ball on offense the way they did the first three weeks of the season when they put up 34 or more points in each of those three games.

Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrific this season. He has 1,040 passing yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a 63.4 completion percentage. Running back Fred Jackson has been superb as well with 369 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Jackson also has 13 receptions for 147 yards. Steve Johnson has been playing like a No. 1 receiver. He has 24 receptions for 314 yards and three touchdowns. David Nelson has emerged as a solid No. 2 target for Fitzpatrick and Scott Chandler has been a viable red zone target at tight end. The Eagles started the season with an easy win over the Rams. But it all went downhill from there. Michael Vick got injured in a Sunday Night game in Atlanta and had to leave the game. While he was out, the Falcons came back from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to get the victory. Vick came back the next week against the Giants but once again was injured and couldn't finish the game. The Eagles were already playing poorly and the Giants got the victory there. Last week, Vick was back on the field and it looked like the Eagles had it in the bag, up 23-3 late in the third quarter. But the 49ers woke up and came back for a 24-23 shocking win.

Vick has 1,021 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, three interceptions and 228 rushing yards. Running back LeSean McCoy has 363 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 15 receptions, 83 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson lead the way through the air, as the two of them have combined for 42 receptions and 658 receiving yards. If both of these offenses are on track, neither one of these defenses is capable of completing stopping the opposing offense. With Jackson running the ball and Fitzpatrick moving the ball through the air, the Bills can put up points, just like they did against the Patriots and Raiders. When the Eagles don't turn the ball over and actually score touchdowns in the red zone, they can put up a lot of points as well. But turnovers and red zone failures have been killing the Eagles the last few weeks. This game may come down to which defense steps up more and creates some turnovers. If neither defense steps up and neither offense makes any mistakes, it will instead just come down to whichever team has the ball last. Expect a high-scoring shootout that will be fun to watch.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: I see a whole lot of points being scored ... I'll TAKE THE OVER (49½) as neither defense will be able to stop the opponents offense!

Clemson at Virginia Tech (-7½) Oct. 1, 6:00 PM, ESPN2

Why Clemson Might Win: It’s taken just a few weeks for the Tigers to adapt to coordinator Chad Morris’ up-tempo offensive system. With Tajh Boyd calling the shots behind center, they’ve yet to be held below 35 points, slapping 344 yards and three touchdowns through the air on the Seminoles last Saturday. The sophomore’s supporting cast has evolved on the fly, giving him more speed and explosiveness than they’ve had at Clemson in years. The cast of homerun hitters includes RB Andre Ellington and receivers Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. While just a rookie, Watkins is on the verge of becoming a mega-star, with 28 catches for 433 yards and six touchdowns through the first four games. If the Tigers succeed in dragging Tech into a shootout, the Hokies will struggle to keep pace. Their first-year starting quarterback, Logan Thomas, has been slow to adapt to his expanded role, and the receiving corps has been decimated by injuries.

Why Virginia Tech Might Win: The Clemson offense is terrific. The Virginia Tech D believes it’s a little bit better. The Hokies, under the guidance of long-time coordinator Bud Foster, have gotten off to a great start so far in 2011, ranking no lower than No. 10 nationally in sacks, rushing D, pass efficiency D, scoring D and total D. The unit is a little short on star power, save for CB Jayron Hosley, leaning instead on a committee of speedy defenders who don’t miss tackles. Ends J.R. Collins and James Gayle are quick off the snap, a concern for a middling Tigers front wall. Linebackers Tariq Edwards and Bruce Taylor have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. The corners, Hosley and Kyle Fuller are air-tight, bolstering a secondary that’s allowed only two touchdown passes and picked off seven throws. The Hokies won’t need Thomas to be prolific to win this game. The meld of lightning-quick RB David Wilson and north-south RB Josh Oglesby will do plenty of damage to a suspect Clemson front that’s allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per carry.

What To Watch Out For: The matchup between the Virginia Tech corners and the Clemson receivers will be the best game-within-the-game of the evening. Strike that. It’ll be the most intriguing pairing of the entire weekend’s slate of games. Even by five-star recruit standards, Watkins has been otherworldly so far, toying with defensive backs four or five years his senior. Hopkins, or “Nuke” to the locals, has similar incendiary qualities, yet could be a scratch if his hamstring injury hasn’t healed. Fuller and Hosley rank among the best cornerback tandems in America, the next in a long line of Hokies defensive backs destined to play on Sundays. While Fuller operates with the mentality of a safety, Hosley has elite cover skills. To win in Blacksburg, Clemson will need to be the first team in a long time to solve the Virginia Tech pass defense.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The ACC has not heard the last of Clemson, but the run of wins over ranked teams will end at two. Virginia Tech is ideally suited to slow down the Tigers with a combination of its attacking defense and diverse ground game. While the Tigers will score and amass a bunch of yards, they won’t reach the end zone with the same proficiency as in recent weeks. Foster will employ the right mix of stunts and blitzes to keep Boyd from distributing the ball unmolested. On offense, the Hokies won’t ask Thomas to be the hero, leaning instead on the big-play ability of Wilson. The game will be close throughout, with every late possession carrying significance. Clemson has yet to play outside Death Valley. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, will feed off the energy in Lane Stadium, the difference in a battle between similarly talented programs. I'll TAKE TECH TO WIN - BUT FOR CLEMSON TO "BEAT THE SPREAD!"

Patriots (-5.0) at Raiders October 2, 4:00 PM CBS

One might be concerned about most teams that blew a 21-0 lead at Buffalo to lose by a last-second field goal. With the Patriots, it shouldn't be too much cause for panic. After easily handling Miami and San Diego, they probably grew a little complacent upon seeing themselves up by 3 touchdowns and let their foot off the gas pedal. They were facing an uppity Bills team with a plucky young QB and got nipped at the wire. It's going to happen in this league. If anything, the loss should refocus them. The way their defense allowed the Bills to come back was not inspiring, but Brady's 4 picks didn't help. It drowned out an otherwise powerful performance by Brady and Co. that saw him rack up 387 yards and 4 touchdowns. WR Wes Welker caught an amazing 16 balls for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. Their running game was kept in check for the most part, but aren't teams allowed to lag in certain areas from time to time?

It looks like the Raiders are really responding to new head coach Hue Jackson. On defense, there is no question that some key losses in the offseason have taken their toll, but the offense looks prepared to answer the call. QB Jason Campbell has been efficient and steady-a big improvement considering recent Raiders quarterbacking issues. Darkhorse rookie Denarius Moore is developing into a nice little playmaker, leading the team in receiving yards. But most important is the continued blossoming of RB Darren McFadden. His 1152 yards and 5.2 rushing average in 2010 signaled a coming out party. This year, however, he seems to be taking it to the next level. Against the Jets, he was lethal, rushing for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns against a normally stingy "D." A 70-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter had that kind of "WOW" factor that really seems to confirm what a star McFadden has become. McFadden hurt his groin apparently, but will play on Sunday. The Patriots took some knocks too, with TE Aaron Hernandez and DT Albert Haynesworth among the injured, with both being questionable for Sunday. As far as motivation is concerned, both teams have a lot on the line. It's almost a fork-in-the-road moment for Oakland. Will they rise to the occasion or show they still need time? For the Patriots, they certainly want to avoid going an unseemly (for them) 2-2 and Brady is looking to atone against a defense that on paper; might be in over its head.

Oakland is showing signs of life, especially on offense. Defensively, it's another story. This "D" has given up 117 yards rushing to Buffalo's Fred Jackson, 304 yards passing against Kyle Orton in their win over Denver, and 369 yards to Mark Sanchez on Sunday. Numbers can be misleading, but against an irritated Tom Brady who is on fire and a New England offense that will be looking for blood, the Raiders will be put to the test. Look for a close game to break out a bit late with the Patriots getting the cover. I'll TAKE THE PATRIOTS to both win and cover!

Colorado at Ohio State (-14.0) Sept. 24, 3:30, ABC

From The Buff's Perspective: As long as the Ohio State offense continues to go south, Colorado will have a chance of authoring the upset. The Buckeyes threw for only 35 yards in Miami, and failed to cross the goal line. The Buffs defense ranks No. 12 nationally in sacks, getting pressure from the likes of DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe and linebackers Josh Hartigan and Douglas Rippy. If the D can keep things close, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart and WR Paul Richardson are capable of pushing Colorado over the hump. Four of Hansen’s seven touchdown passes have gone to the big-play Richardson. And Stewart will be running with a little extra motivation as he returns to the campus that rests a mere 25 miles from his Westerville, OH hometown.

From The Buckeyes Sideline: While the Buckeyes have issues at this juncture of the season, they’ll still be able to dominate their visitors at the line of scrimmage. They’ll simply be too big and physical at the point of contact, especially when the Buffaloes have the ball. Ohio State will toss aside the Colorado blockers, getting an inside push from John Simon and Johnathan Hankins. If the Colorado linemen aren’t paying attention, linebackers Andrew Sweat and Etienne Sabino are liable to zip past them and into the backfield. Despite all of the offensive woes for the Buckeyes, they did get a boost from the return of RB Jordan Hall, who repeatedly snapped off long-gainers on Saturday night. He and Carlos Hyde figure to be the chief beneficiaries of Ohio State’s edge up front.

What To Watch Out For: So what will Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell do about his situation at quarterback? There are no easy answers, even if he’s getting a ton of input from the fan base. Senior Joe Bauserman brings experience, but very little upside. True freshman Braxton Miller has the far higher ceiling, yet remains very raw. Some composite of the two is likely, with the rookie’s role gradually increasing over time. The Buckeyes will not be a great passing team in 2011, so preparing for 2012 becomes a priority. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: It won’t be pretty or particularly easy, but Ohio State will find a way to send Colorado home with its third loss in the first four games. The Buckeyes will essentially out physical the Buffs, creating holes for Hall and Hyde, while making Stewart earn every yard. The host’s lack of balance and pop on offense will keep this game somewhat tight throughout. However, Colorado’s quest to break through and take a lead in the second half will be turned away by the Ohio State D. I'll TAKE OHIO STATE - TO WIN ... AND TO "BEAT THE SPREAD!"

Packers (-3.0) at Bears (O/U = 46.0) September 25, 4:14 PM FOX

The problem is that most people are still not giving Chicago much respect, including the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas, who opened the rivalry game with Green Bay as 3-point favorites on the road. The betting public isn’t offering much respect either, as the number has actually gone up to 3.5-points at a few offshore sportsbooks with most of the early money coming in on the Packers. The over/under total opened at 46 and has dropped the hook to 45.5 at almost every sportsbook in Vegas and on the Web currently listing a total on their board. Offensively you know what you’re going to get from the Packers side, you just can bank on which Bears offense is going to show up, the one that looked really good in week one or the one that was dismantled in New Orleans last week.

Green Bay is ranked in the top-10 across the board in most of the offensive categories, with the 8th-ranked passing attack in the NFL after two weeks (295.5 ypg) and the 9th-ranked total offense in the league at 409 yards a game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers would likely have better numbers if the Packers receivers didn’t have a case of the drops last week in Carolina, but even still the Packers are a very dangerous unit as evidenced by their 4th-ranked scoring total at 36 points per game. The Bears offense that went for 377 yards in the opener was held to just 246 against the Saints, but what is the most surprising aspect of those numbers is that the Bears still can’t seem to get their running game going to support Cutler. After two games the Bears rank 27th in the league with just a 74 yards per game average, which as many Bears fans know puts unwanted pressure on Cutler to try and do too much. Plus I already mentioned the Bears troubles along the offensive line, a line that has already given up 11 sacks through two games and has forced the strong Bears defense to play too many downs and the season is still very young. The line played without guard Lance Louis in week two and he’s listed as questionable for this week, but the jury is still out on whether or not it will make the unit strong enough to protect Cutler and get the run game going.

The good news is that the Bears defense under coach Lovie Smith has always played the Packers tough, allowing them just 48 points in all three games last year combined, including a low of 17 at Soldier Field last season (a 20-17 Bears win) and just 10 in the Packers 10-3 season-ending victory at Lambeau in 2010. If the Bears can limit the potent Packers offense again this week like they did last season it should keep them in good shape too, because the Packers defense reeling right now. The Packers secondary, normally the strength of the unit, is ranked dead-last 32nd in pass defense giving up 400 yards per game so far. Plus, they’ll have to figure out a way to replace Pro-Bowl safety Nick Collins, who injured his neck in the Carolina game and has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Charlie Peprah will likely get the start in place of Collins, but Peprah is better near the line of scrimmage and is much slower than Collins in pass coverage, something the Bears and Cutler will try and take advantage of on Sunday. As mentioned, Green Bay won two of the three games between these two rivals last season on the scoreboard, but the Bears were better to gamblers as they covered in two of the three including the regular season matchup at Soldier Field as (ironically) 3-point underdogs. Going back 10 games (to 2006) the Packers own a 6-4 SU advantage, as well as a 6-4 ATS advantage too. But home field doesn’t appear to matter much in this series, as the Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings at Soldier Field, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.

If you like to play betting trends than you’ll likely be placing a wager on the under in this game. The under is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven head-to-head games, and it’s also a perfect 4-0 in the last four played at Chicago. The under is also 6-1 in the Packers last seven games as a road favorite, and 4-0 in their last four games played within the NFC North. The under is even 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven games versus the NFC North, so if those aren’t strong enough trends than I don’t know what you’re looking for from trends.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The Bears offensive line looks like crap. This will negatively affect their chances to score which should put the final combined score in the 30's. I'll TAKE THE UNDER (46.0)

Michigan State at Notre Dame (MINUS 4.0) Sept. 17, 3:30, NBC

Notre Dame can’t lose. A case could be made that it’s the best 0-2 team in the country, and with a not-that-bad schedule until the regular season finale at Stanford, a win for the Irish this week might start a run that could change everything around in a hurry. No matter what happens against the Spartans, the Irish should be favored in every game up until the battle against the Cardinal. Michigan State hasn’t generated any noise yet, partly because the last time it was on a national stage it was obliterated by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, and partly because the first two games were against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. However, the Spartans have been dominant with a defense that hasn’t allowed a thing and a dangerous offense that’s doing whatever it wants. How strong has the defense been? FAU came up with one first down last week – one – failing to convert on any of its ten chances and finishing with 26 yards passing and 22 rushing. Michigan State is loaded and ready to show that it deserves to be in the discussion of top Big Ten teams, and Notre Dame is ready to come up with a win to let everyone around the program exhale. Go ahead. Demand yet another thrilling classic. These two know how to do it.

Why Michigan State Might Win: One. That’s how many turnovers Michigan State has committed so far, giving up just one fumble against Youngstown State. The Notre Dame turnover problems will stop at some point, and MSU doesn’t have the make-up to start screwing up enough to make a difference. This is a smart, veteran team that did a great job of hanging on to the ball throughout last year and will be ultra-stingy again when it comes to giving the ball away. It’s possible the Spartans can simply hold serve and keep it close throughout, and then wait for Notre Dame to implode. The bigger issue for the Irish could be a shaky secondary that broke down way too often against Michigan. Denard Robinson only completed 11 of 24 passes, but he made the plays through the air when he had to thanks to poor positioning and lousy technique from the Irish defensive backs. It’ll be a whole different ball game this week against MSU’s Kirk Cousins, who unlike Robinson, doesn’t have to rely on lobbing the ball up in the air to make the passing game go. Michigan might have tremendous talent, but Michigan State has a better overall offense with the balance to hit the Irish defense in a variety of ways.

Why Notre Dame Might Win: The Michigan State offensive line is just okay, it’s not great. The pass protection has been fine so far and the running game has worked, but that’s because of the competition. Lost in the last two games was an Irish defense that did a great job against the run, holding Michigan to 114 yards with Robinson ripping off 108 of them. South Florida only gained 126 yards and struggled to break off any big dashes, averaging just three yards per carry. The Irish defensive front has been more than fine, but it hasn’t been noticed because of the brilliance of Robinson and all the problems on the Notre Dame offense. But the offense is fine. Several of the mistakes have come from a lack of timing and a lack of polish, and many of the turnovers won’t be made in a few weeks; it might have taken the first two games to get rid of all the yips. South Florida’s defense is athletic and talented, and Notre Dame had no problems going up and down the field against it. Michigan’s defense might be questionable, but it’s full of experience and is ultra-aggressive, and the Irish came up with 315 yards through the air and 198 on the ground. Michigan State hasn’t seen this type of offense yet and needs to be prepared to get into a firefight.

What To Watch Out For: Lost in the brilliance of the Michigan game was a phenomenal performance by Cierre Wood, the Irish back who tore off 134 yards and a touchdown after rumbling for 104 yards and a score against USF. The junior was a superstar recruit who could’ve gone anywhere after rushing for over 4,000 yards and 54 touchdowns in his final two years of high school, and now he’s starting to play up to his potential. With a great blend of speed and power, he became a key part of the attack over the second half of last year, and now he’s thriving. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd has been unstoppable over the first two games with 25 catches for 313 yards and two scores, but Michigan State has a playmaking receiver of its own who’s ready for the national stage. Senior B.J. Cunningham was terrific in last year’s win over the Irish, catching seven passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, after catching seven passes for 74 yards in the 2009 loss. The 6-2, 223-pounder is big, isn’t afraid to get physical, and has the wheels to get deep when needed. He’s also a rock-steady No. 1 target with 14 catches for 203 yards and a score to start the season.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The slide will stop. Michigan State will come up with the takeaways needed to make the Irish sweat, and it has the defensive line to wreak havoc, but finally, the turnovers will slow down. Notre Dame will give up a couple of mistakes, but it won’t turn it over five times like it has over each of the last two games and that’ll make all the difference. Irish quarterback Tommy Rees and Cousins will each throw for over 300 yards, and it’ll be a shootout and a typical tight game between the two teams. The one with the ball last will win. I'll TAKE NOTRE DAME to win and "Beat The Spread!

Packers (-10.5) at Panthers Sept. 18, 1:00, FOX

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren’t giving the Panthers much of a chance to spring an upset in this game, setting the opening point spread with the Packers as 10-point favorites on the road. So far the bettors going to the window agree, since there is enough early money coming in on Green Bay that it has moved the number up to 10.5-points at some of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. The over/under total opened at 45.5 and has seen a bunch of early line movement in both directions, dropping as low as 45 at a few sportsbooks and as high as 46.5 at a few more, so shop around if you want to move the total a full point in your direction. Offensively the Panthers had a lot of bright spots despite the loss in the opener. They did tally 26 first downs, nearly twice as many as the Cardinals in the game. They also welcomed Steve Smith back to being relevant, as the veteran receiver “broke loose” for 178 yards and two touchdowns. But the Packers best defense is its offense, which looked in post-season form in the opener. After racing out to a 28-17 halftime lead the Packers offense did lose focus in the third quarter a little, but that may have been due to the blitzing style of the Saints defense, something Carolina might try and copy this weekend. The Panthers defense will try and contain Rodgers better than they contained Kevin Kolb of Arizona last week. Kolb was effective (309 yards, 2 TD) due to the fact he was not pressured very much (2 sacks), something the must get on Rodgers or he will pick them apart with his crew of receivers on the perimeter. It’s been a few years since these two have met on the gridiron, with the Panthers winning the last time they met in 2008 in a 35-31 shootout. The Packers outgained the Panthers 448-to-298 in the game, but they just couldn’t contain DeAngelo Williams who had four touchdown runs in the contest.

All told the Packers hold the edge in the series, winning six of the last 10 games straight up, while holding a slim 5-3-1 ATS advantage at the window for bettors. The over has been profitable of late too, cashing in for the last three games and in six of the last 10 as well (over is 6-3-1 since 1997). The Packers do seem to like Charlotte though, as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits to play in Carolina. The Packers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite as well, giving bettors plenty of trends to follow if they so choose. The under wager is also a trend play this week, going 9-2 in the Packers last 11 games on the road and 4-0-1 in the last five games the Panthers were 10-point underdogs. In fact, the Panthers have gone under in 35 of their last 52 home games, a nearly 70 percent clip for those of you scoring at home (67.3%).

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Double digit home dog and a team that played well on the road last week? Gimme those points! I'll TAKE THE PANTHERS to beat the spread!

Week Ending - September 12, 2011

Stanford (-21) at Duke

Here’s The Deal: When Duke and Stanford meet for the first time since 1972, Wallace Wade Stadium will be brimming with bright young college students. There’ll be a handful of rather gifted football players in attendance as well. Cardinal QB Andrew Luck, for instance. The Heisman contender was predictably crisp in Week 1, tossing two touchdown passes and running for a third score in his team’s 57-3 spanking of San Jose State. Now that Oregon has already lost a game, falling to LSU in Arlington, Tex., Stanford becomes the Pac-12’s best hope to represent the conference in the BCS National Championship Game. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, would be thrilled to just qualify for a bowl game. The beleaguered program, which appears to be stuck in neutral under head coach David Cutcliffe, lost its opener to Richmond of the FCS. Its already-thin postseason margin for error now evaporated, Duke will be seeking signs of progress in Week 2.

From the Stanford Sideline: The Cardinal’s ability to score points in bunches will not be thwarted in Durham. Luck will arrive in North Carolina knowing that he might have been a Panther at this time had he left the Farm following his sophomore year. He’ll operate behind a terrific line that’ll open holes for Stepfan Taylor, while blowing Duke a few yards off the ball. Not only does Stanford boast one of the nation’s best collections of tight ends, but speedy WR Chris Owusu is completely healthy for the first time in a long time. The senior, who can get behind the Duke secondary, opened the year with seven catches for 75 yards and a 59-yard kick return.

From the Blue Devil Perspective: San Jose State wasn’t able to exploit a Stanford defensive backfield in transition. The Blue Devils, though, might be able to. Duke has the components of a dangerous passing attack, headed by one of the ACC’s better quarterbacks and a seasoned group of pass-catchers. Sean Renfree has a live arm and a keen feel for Cutcliffe’s offense, spreading the ball around to TE Cooper Helfet and receivers Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner. With nothing to lose in this one, the Blue Devils are capable of catching the Cardinal napping as it looks ahead to next weekend’s league opener at Arizona.

What To Watch Out For: While the Stanford offense is just fine these days, the defense needs some tweaking before the level of competition spikes dramatically. The trip to Duke represents a good test for the Cardinal secondary before going up against Arizona QB Nick Foles and WR Juron Criner. Vernon and Varner are a couple of skilled route-runners who are going to force cornerbacks Barry Browning and Johnson Bademosi to play tighter in coverage than they had to a week ago.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Provided Stanford plays with the proper focus and motivation, it’ll steamroll Duke en route to a comfortable victory. Luck and his supporting cast will be no match for a Blue Devils defense that’s painfully shy of size and proven stoppers. The Cardinal will seize control of the game before halftime, coasting in the second half. At some point in the fourth quarter, head coach David Shaw and his assistants will already be thinking ahead to next Saturday’s key showdown with Arizona in the desert. I'll TAKE STANFORD ... in a rout!

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Monday September 12th, 2011 7:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 1 Sun Life Stadium Miami, Florida

Point Spread: NE -7/MIA 7
Over/Under Total: 45

The Miami Dolphins will have the luxury of hosting the first Monday Night Football Game of the new NFL season when they host the New England Patriots at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins look to rebound after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2010. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they will start their season off against one of the best teams in the NFL by way of the New England Patriots. In fact, the Patriots dominated their AFC East rivals in 2010 by outscoring Miami 79-21 combined in their two meetings. This season the Patriots have added more talent on both sides of the ball and looked poised to make a run at another AFC Championship.

New England added two big names on both sides of the ball over the off-season despite both players having well-known character issues. On offense, the Patriots signed WR Chad Ochocinco in hopes to find another weapon for QB Tom Brady. It has been stated that Ochocinco's work ethic has declined over the past few years, which reflect his numbers on the field. However, he is still a great athlete that can be a big time player in the Patriots' offense. If Ochocinco can stay focused, there is not any reason to expect that he will not be a big contributor for the offense. Fortunately for Ochocinco, he will not have to carry the offense along in the receiving game like he has with some of his prior teams. WR Wes Welker was the team's leading receiver last season with 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 scores. Considering the fact Welker is healthier this season, he should be primed for an even better season. If both guys stay healthy, this should be an even more dangerous Patriots offense in 2011.

Despite little receiving help in 2010, QB Tom Brady still posted dominant numbers. Brady completed 66% passing for 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It's hard to believe that Brady could improve on those numbers from last season, but it is also very possible if the receiving core stays healthy. As good as the Patriots are on offense; Coach Belichick hopes they will also be on the defensive side of the ball. New England was inconsistent in 2010 giving up over 360 yards per game in a defense that ranked 25th overall. This season New England added troubled DT Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. Haynesworth's previous troubles have been well documented, but he is still one of the most dominating forces among the defensive front in the NFL when he wants to be. Sure Haynesworth has been a nuisance in the past, but this could be his last opportunity to play football as well. Considering the fact Haynesworth is not making ridiculous amounts of money any longer by sitting on the bench, I really expect him to come out and be a force defensively. With the help of some additional depth among the defensive front, the Patriots should be an improved bunch in 2011 overall.

Miami on the other hand is a team with a lot more questions entering 2011. QB Chad Henne took over the starting job in 2010, but was plagued by inconsistency completing 61% for 3,301 yards with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In fact, it was the 2nd straight season that Henne finished the year with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. This season Henne will again be the starter in possibly what will be his make or break year for the Dolphins.

In the receiving game, the Dolphins are led by WR Brandon Marshall who is among the best receivers in the NFL. In 2010, Marshall caught 86 passes for 1,014 yards with 3 touchdowns. While those numbers are not staggering, they are pretty solid if you consider how much Miami struggled in the passing game. Marshall is a guy that can potentially lead this Miami team with big play ability if someone (Henne) can just get him the ball on a consistent basis. One of the bigger questions for the Miami offense in 2011 will be the search for a rushing game. Both starting running backs from 2010 in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown departed from the team over the off-season. The Dolphins did acquire running back Reggie Bush from New Orleans. However, Bush has yet to prove that he can be an every down back in the NFL. Bush has had some brilliant moments catching passes out of the backfield during his tenure with the Saints, but has yet to prove he can be a reliable every down threat. If Bush fails to yield the threat of a rushing game, it will make things even more difficult for the struggling Henne at quarterback. Defensively, the Dolphins return the majority of a group that ranked 6th overall last season giving up only 309 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is loaded with talent. Leading the group is LB Cameron Wake. Wake recorded the 2nd most sacks in the NFL last season with 14 total while earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Most believe the defense will be every bit as solid this season as they gained more experience over the off-season. Therefore, the Miami offense's ability to score points will likely be the determining factor in deciding if the Dolphins have a successful season.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The simple fact here is the Dolphins are retracting and the Patriots are progressing from a team stand point. The Patriots appear to have an offense that could virtually become unstoppable this season and it is hard to believe that an offense as inconsistent as Miami will be able to keep pace. Therefore, I think this is another New England blowout just like their last 2 meetings over Miami. I'll TAKE NEW ENGLAND TO WIN AND COVER!

To visit Rick's Sports Site ... click here ... THE BETTER BETTOR

EMAIL Rick ... rneedham1@yahoo.com

Rick Needham (alias TrackMaster Rick) has been known to "poke some fun" at the patrons that he observes at the racing facilities and OTW establishments that he visits almost daily, in his column here at INNERNET.NET... he's also been known to "poke some fun" at himself during the countless number of TrackMaster-handicapping- computer lectures that he has done on the East/West Coasts at facilities-establishments-civic club functions etc ... "Hey ... what is your 'vision' of the archetypcal handicapper?" he asks in his "opening." "Hmmm ... middle aged ... balding ... slightly overweight ... cigar smoking ... Daily Racing Form Reading ...???" Well ... he's 52 (oops now 62 )... balding ... a little overweight at 198 (nope ... back to H.S. Weight of 165 - and back in shape!) ... but ...

he's never smoked a cigar in his life, and has not read the DRF in more that 25 years, and as a "convert" is an "evangelist" for TrackMaster Software!

At the tender age of 18, Rick began his "career" as a handicapper while working as an "apprentice" at AVCO-LYCOMING in Bridgeport, Connecticut in the mid-60's (a summer job - he was a student-athlete at CLEMSON - Baseball) ... "With both of my parents being teachers, education was the primary goal in our home ... I was pretty oblivious to wagering and horse racing" he notes in his TrackMaster "talks." However, in Bridgeport during this era, there was no opportunity to visit an OTW ... so bookmakers were "rampant" in a huge industrial facilty such as AVCO (they built the compression shafts for the SIKORSKY HELICOPTERS)... After just two weeks of watching this "unknown activity" ... he suggested that for $2.00 per person, that "I will drive to New York (only 50 miles) and place the bets legally, and bring back the "winnings!" His first visit to Belmont was the "charm!" He had never been to a Thoroughbred facility ... and as he notes ... "when I went through the gate .. and saw Belmont for the first time ... I was 'hooked! I talked to the 'old guys' ... learned how to 'read the form' ... how to understand the importance of speed -- class -- and pace. And two weeks later, he was no longer running an ID (Internal-Dimension) Grinder ... but driving his VolksWagen Beetle to Belmont, and earning about $100.00 per day as a "runner!"

Horse racing has seemingly "followed" his moves ... while at CLEMSON .. he stopped at Belmont-Aqueduct ... PIMLICO-LAUREL-BOWIE-TIMONIUM on his trips back and forth to South Carolina/Connecticut ... later attended graduate school (UMASS) and taught in the Amherst, Massachusetts area ... (30 min. driving distance to HINSDALE, N.H. {HARNESS - now a greyhound facility} .. took a teaching assignment at Universidade Federal do Rio de Janerio in BRAZIL ... lived directly across the street from Joqui Clube Brasileiro (the Thoroughbred Track in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) and returned to the US to teach in Pennsylvania ... PENN NATIONAL was 60 miles to the North ... CHARLES TOWN was 60 miles to the South ... and PENN NATIONAL built an OTW across the street (in Chambersburg, PA) for Rick to use!

UPDATE ... Rick now lives in Palo Alto, California ... a scant 20 minutes South of BAY MEADOWS!

UPDATE #2 ... Rick has moved back to "The Keystone State" to help East Coast TrackMaster customers, and lives a scant 2 miles from Penn National Race Course in Grantville, PA .. and also has directed the Science and Math programs at an inner-city school in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania!

Rick has a BS degree from CLEMSON in Entomology , has completed the M.S. portion of a joint MS/Phd program at UMASS in Pesticide Chemistry, and an advanced degree in Portuguese from Pontifico Universidade Catholico in Brazil (Rick taught Chemistry at Escola Americana in Rio de Janeiro for some five years - perhaps the most rewarding experience of his life!) He also wrote the software for the SCIENCE AND MATH FORUM on CompuServe (which after 34 years of continuous on-line use, now has more than 1,175,000 users worldwide ... and it includes a TrackMaster library section), and writes a horse racing column DAILY for not only TrackMaster ... but for 3 other "Web Sites" (Equibase - YouBet - TVG) he travels to many East Coast facilities as the result of a "retirement -from-teaching" position which involves the importation of Oriental Rugs from Europe ... he serves as a translator (English-Portuguese-Spanish-French) for these "negotiations" and has been known to "show up" at Calder - Hialeah - Gulfstream - Louisiana Downs - Suffolk Downs - Rockingham - Aqueduct - Belmont - Saratoga - Laurel - Pimlico (and of course ... PENN NATIONAL, PHILADELPHIA PARK PARX RACING and CHARLES TOWN) on almost a regular basis!

Rick was also a contributor to the SPORTSMASTER software package (now using an archived software version), and utilizes this analysis tool on a daily basis to handicap professional and college football, basketball and baseball games. His column here on "The Better Bettor" is also known as THE BIG GAME HUNTER. Rick also has produced a local radio show ... "THE SIMULCAST ZONE" on RADIO STATION WCBG in Chambersburg, PA.

COMMENTS ARE OF COURSE WELCOME!!!

RICK NEEDHAM (RICK'S EMAIL HOME)

Rick uses TrackMaster and SportsMaster software EXCLUSIVELY ... these products are developed by AXCIS INFORMATION SYSTEMS in Mountain View, California ... to visit their WEB SITE use this "HOT LINK!" http://www.trackmaster.com