#7 MORAL COMPASS
#8 HOLIDAY TRIP
#3 CONTINENTAL REINS
#1 RIPTIDE
#7 MORAL COMPASS is the overall speed leader in this allowance field today racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the turf, and has hit the board in four of his last five starts overall, and goes to the post with the skills of the Jockey/Trainer tandem of Eibar Coa and Barclay Tagg in his corner ... they've hit the board with 56% of more than 125 entries saddled as a team to date. #8 HOLIDAY TRIP has also hit the board in four of his last five starts, including a win in his 5th race back.
RACING NEWS: Presque Isle Downs is the latest track to get caught up in the battle over revenue sharing of online and telephone wagering companies, as signals to many advance deposit wagering companies were cut off May 11 due to lack of agreements with the Pennsylvania Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association. Handle on the May 11 card, not including separate pool wagering, dropped to $194,954 after an opening day handle of $729,219 May 9, according to statistics compiled by The Jockey Club Information Systems. Average daily handle during last September’s inaugural 25-day meet at the Erie-area track was more than $585,000. Joe Santanna, who is president of the Pennsylvania HBPA, said the horsemen didn’t withhold consent for the ADW signals, but said the group only would grant approval for entities that sign licensing agreements based on the revenue sharing plan being promoted by the Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Group.
RICK'S DAILY HANDICAPPING VIDEOS ARE UPLOADED IN THE EVENING - IF YOU WANT TO GET HIS INFORMATION AS THEY ARE PRODUCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY - RICK OFTEN ADDS SOME FREE PICKS FROM BOTH HARNESS AND GREYHOUND TRACKS TO "WHET YOUR APPETITE!" SIMPLY SUBSCRIBE TO HIS REPORTS VIA YOUTUBE - THEY ARE ALWAYS FREE!
HOME TRACK BONUS
#3 BOLD AND BRAZEN
#1 GREETINGS
#6 ALL AMERICAN MIZ
#5 SUCH A DIAMOND
#3 BOLD AND BRAZEN has nice early speed abilities for this sprint, and has posted a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" in her last three starts. Jockey Luis Belmonte and Trainer Sam Webb send her to the post tonight ... they've hit the board with and impressive 60% of nearly 225 entries saddled as a team to date. #1 GREETINGS, a 4-1 shot, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in three straight, including a pair of "Circle Trips" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.
KENTUCKY BONUS
#7 WEST EXPRESS
#2 MUTADDA
#3 TENKILLER LAKE
#6 TALE Z
#7 WEST EXPRESS qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-4), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his last two starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company in his last start. Jockey Julian LeParoux and Trainer Eddie Kenneally send him to the post this afternoon ... they've hit the board with an even 50% of more than 75 entries saddled as a team to date. The pace profile leader in this allowance field today is #2 MUTADDA who comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in his last start, missing a "Circle Trip" in that race by just a "photographed neck" at the wire.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BONUS
#5 SELF INSURED
#10 PATHBREAKING
#1 TIZMET
#2 GARY'S GOT RHYTHM
#5 SELF INSURED takes a class drop (-11) this afternoon, and is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the "dirt," and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, facing better company in each of those outings than he will face in this field today. The 5-1 shot, #10 PATHBREAKING comes off a "POWER RUN SHOW" finish in his last start facing better company in that race, and goes to the post with the skills of the Jockey/Trainer tandem of Tyler Baze and Jeff Mullins in his corner ... they've hit the board with 59% of their entries saddled as a team to date.
BONUS LONGSHOTS MAY 14,2008
a. Odds are 4-1 - or higher
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
d. The entry has raced in the last 25 days - no extended layoffs allowed!
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.
Woodbine - Race #2 - 7:15PM - #3 12/1 SEATTLE SPIRIT
NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.
NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at rneedham1@yahoo.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.
As New York prepares for this game on Sunday, they will need to devise a scheme to keep Romo in the pocket. Tony Romo is most dangerous when he gets outside the containment and uses his mobility and elusiveness to buy time for his receivers to get open against zone coverage. The Giants need defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora to attack the pocket under control and avoid being run out of plays so as to keep Romo pinned in the pocket and make him throw quickly. They might also hope to see shots of his "jinxable girl friend" - "peeping" from some luxury box! Perhaps during pre-game warm-ups, the will need to determine the health of one Terrell Owens. We don't know if the Giants have a player with a medical degree, but they must quickly determine Owens' potential to contribute Sunday. We expect Owens, a tough competitor, to play through the ankle injury. However, if unable to cut or use his speed to stretch the field, New York must abandon its double-team on Owens and use the extra defender to support the run or bracket tight end Jason Witten. The sooner the Giants determine Owens' health, the better chance they have of slowing Dallas' attack. And finally, the will need to keep Ahmad Bradshaw involved. Brandon Jacobs (6-4, 264) is a productive workhorse but has struggled to stay healthy, and he couldn't get going in last week's wild-card win over the Buccaneers. Bradshaw (5-9, 198), his quicker, smaller change-of-pace rookie backup, has great burst into holes and is a more powerful inside runner than his size would indicate. If Bradshaw gets through the line and reaches the linebackers at full speed, he can score. The Giants will give him more carries early Sunday as a changeup and help establish a strong rushing attack.
And from the favored Cowboys' perspective ... I am expecting them to attack the Giants' safeties. The Giants' secondary, despite an outstanding pass rush in support, have struggled mightily -- allowing 11 pass plays of 40-plus yards during the regular season (fourth most in the league) and 47 plays of 20-plus yards (eighth-most). Safeties Gibril Wilson and James Butler are slow to provide help on the perimeter and are poor tacklers. If Owens plays, Dallas will expect New York to double-team him, allowing Romo to break contain on rollouts and bootlegs and work the middle of the field to Witten and No. 2 wide receiver Patrick Crayton. Both Witten and Crayton have the speed to outrun Wilson or Butler on seam routes and both can break tackles and make defenders miss in the open field. Dallas will also try to run outside. The Cowboys' running game is at its best running off-tackle to the left behind tackle Flozell Adams. By attacking the edges of the Giants' defense, they can get Adams one-on-one against Umenyiora, who lacks the size to hold his ground at the point of attack. If Adams continuously pounds on him, the theory is it'll slow up the pass rush. This outside running plan also would keep Marion Barber away from the interior of the Giants' defense, where middle linebacker Antonio Pierce is much better filling the hole than playing laterally through traffic. And they will undoubtedly try to pressure Eli Manning. When given time in the pocket and the space to get his feet set, Manning is smart and accurate with the ball. He gets into trouble, however, when the defense attacks him up the middle. Expect Dallas to blitz up the gut on most passing downs to flush Manning out of the pocket and into the edge pass rush of outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis. If they can get Manning unsettled in the pocket and make him hold the ball or rush throws, the Cowboys will throw off the timing of the Giants' passing attack.
The Bottom Line:
A healthy Owens is crucial to everything the Cowboys do on offense. If Owens is unable to command double-teams and unable to stretch the field vertically, Romo's other options become less effective, making this a battle of who can run the ball and stop the run. That edge goes slightly to the Cowboys, playing at home and with an extra week of rest. However, I also note that The Giants have one of the best "road-records" in The NFL .. good enough to win on Sunday ... maybe not .. but I'm betting that their "road-confidence" will "beat the spread!" I'll TAKE NEW YORK!
PACKERS (-8.0) OVER SEAHAWKS JAGUARS OVER PATRIOTS (-13½) THE OVER (45.0) CHARGERS AT COLTS
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Who to watch: 1) LSU DT Glenn Dorsey, 2) Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis, 3) Ohio State RB Chris Wells
I'll TAKE L.S.U. by 9.0!
Looking through Washington's "Crystal Ball" ... they will need to pressure Matt Hasselbeck. The Redskins can hide their coverage problems only by bringing constant pressure. Down the stretch, Seattle coach Mike Holmgren all but discarded Shaun Alexander and the running game and placed the game on Hasselbeck. He has been distributing the ball to a variety of receivers. If Hasselbeck has time to stand in the pocket and survey the field, it will be a long day for the Washington secondary, which is playing shorthanded and lacks the personnel to account for all of the Seahawks' weapons. Washington defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is known for blitzing schemes, and he must find a way to contain Hasselbeck in the pocket and force him to throw under pressure. To stand any change, The "Skins" will need to get off to a fast start. This key cannot be overstated. Washington is coming off an emotional late-season charge and will be making a cross-country trip on a short week. Not many East Coast teams travel to Seattle and play well. Seattle also is one of the few places in the NFL where the home crowd is a genuine factor. The Redskins will try to make a big play early to take the home crowd out of the game. And finally, they will need to be creative on offense. The Redskins' roster is loaded with outstanding athletes, but the coaches make little use of their unique skills. Offensive coordinator Al Saunders must be more creative with Antwaan Randle El, Clinton Portis and James Thrash and use all the trickery and gadget plays in the playbook to get the Seattle defense on its heels. With Seattle linebackers Leroy Hill, Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson being asked to cover so much ground, look for plenty of misdirection and option plays to keep them guessing.
However, Seattle will not hesitate to go to Maurice Morris. Earlier this year, when Alexander was struggling with injuries, Holmgren stayed with Alexander too long -- to the detriment of the team. Since returning from a three-week hiatus, Alexander has been up and down, rushing for just 224 yards in five games for a 3.8-yard average. In his absence, Morris did a solid job and provided balance to the offense. Morris' 4.5-yard per carry average is a full yard more per carry than Alexander's average this season. Seattle must not get caught feeding the ball to Alexander if it isn't working. Morris has shown he can carry the load, can score near the goal line and has some big-play ability. The will also need to force Todd Collins into mistakes. Collins, a veteran backup, has played well the last four games. He has been mistake-free, throwing no interceptions. The Seahawks must use their speed on the defensive line to attack the pocket and force quick throws under pressure. The linebackers, particularly Tatupu, must disguise drops to bait Collins into bad throws. The turnover battle always is a key stat, but if the Redskins turn the ball over on the road in the playoffs, it would seal their demise. They will also need to neutralize tight end Chris Cooley. Cooley is the Redskins' security blanket, no matter who is playing quarterback. He is the go-to receiver in the short passing game, has deceptive speed on vertical seam routes and is a dangerous red-zone threat. Seattle will try to take away Collins' top threat by zoning him off with Tatupu in the middle, forcing him to release to the outside and double-teaming him in the red zone.
In the end, Seattle has too many receiving weapons for a depleted Washington secondary to account for and the Redskins' inability to get to the quarterback will make it hard for the defense to get off the field. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's athleticism and speed on defense will force uncharacteristic mistakes from Collins. Those factors, combined with THESE IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ANGLES - The Redskins' cross-country trip, on a Short Week and in one of the NFL's most hostile environments will result in a relatively easy win for the Seahawks. I'll TAKE SEATTLE by 9.0!
Who to watch: 1) Hawaii QB Colt Brennan, 2) Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno, 3) Hawaii WR Davone Bess
I'll TAKE THE BULLDOGS by a TD!
Who to watch: 1) Hawaii QB Colt Brennan, 2) Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno, 3) Hawaii WR Davone Bess
I'll TAKE THE BULLDOGS by a TD!
Who to watch: 1) Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, 2) Virginia DE Chris Long, 3) Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell
I'll TAKE TEXAS TECH
Who to watch: 1) Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall, 2) USC DT Sedrick Ellis, 3) Illinois LB J Leman
I'll TAKE USC by 2 TD's ... or more!
Who to watch: 1) Colorado LB Jordon Dizon, 2) Alabama S Rashad Johnson, 3) Colorado CB Terrence Wheatley
I'll TAKE ALABAMA
Who to watch: 1) Penn State LB Dan Connor, 2) Penn State LB Sean Lee, 3) Texas A&M QB Stephen McGee
Although I live in Pennsylvania, I am NOT a Penn State fan ... although I'm TAKING PSU to win by 9.0!
Who to watch: 1) Wake Forest PK Sam Swank, 2) Connecticut LB Danny Lansanah, 3) Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith
I'll TAKE WAKE FOREST by 9!
TIMES LISTED ARE EST
Who to watch: 1) Boston College QB Matt Ryan, 2) Michigan State RB Javon Ringer, 3) Michigan State DE Jonal Saint-Dic
I'll TAKE BOSTON COLLEGE by a field goal.
Who to watch: 1) Texas RB Jamaal Charles, 2) Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter, 3) Texas QB Colt McCoy
I'll TAKE TEXAS by a TD!
Who to watch: 1) Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, 2) New Mexico WR Marcus Smith, 3) Nevada RB Luke Lippencott
I'll TAKE NEW MEXICO by 7.0
I'll TAKE THE MIDDIES by a field goal!
RICK NEEDHAM'S FOOTBALL PICKS - 2007-2008Well folks .. "The Bowl Season" is HERE! Anyways ... just like last year, I am offering my football selections, using my "archived version" of SportsMaster for Football Software to help me get through the season, on a weekly or annual basis! Here's the "deal" ...1. It is on the "honor system" ... weekly reports are sent out at your request on Wednesdays ... hopefully your check for the report will arrive by the weekend of the games requested! (in the past 6 years of sending out reports, only 9 folks decided not to send their checks)! 2. A weekly report this season is $20.00 3. An Annual subscription, which will get you weekly reports through not only the Super Bowl .. but my detailed College Bowl Report - (ALL MAJOR COLLEGE BOWL GAMES INCLUDED) is just $200.00 - No price change from last season! 4. My 2007/2008 College Bowl Report (15 pages long - all 32 games analyzed) is now ready - For non season subscribers, the cost of this report of $50.00 - The cost of my weekly NFL Playoff Report for non season subscribers is $50.00 which covers the playoffs through The Super Boal 5. I do NOT analyze pre-season games in the N.F.L or The NFL's Pro Bowl! 6. To "subscribe" ... send me an email ... either for the entire season .. or for any single week of picks.
MAIL TO:
Rick Needham
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Rick Needham (alias TrackMaster Rick) has been known to "poke
some fun" at the patrons that he observes at the racing facilities
and OTW establishments that he visits almost daily, in his column
here at INNERNET.NET... he's also been known to "poke some fun" at
himself during the countless number of TrackMaster-handicapping-
computer lectures that he has done on the East/West Coasts at
facilities-establishments-civic club functions etc ... "Hey ...
what is your 'vision' of the archetypcal handicapper?" he asks in
his "opening." "Hmmm ... middle aged ... balding ... slightly
overweight ... cigar smoking ... Daily Racing Form Reading ...???"
Well ... he's 52 (oops now 56 )... balding ... a little overweight at 210 ... but ...
he's never smoked a cigar in his life, and has not read the DRF in more that 8 years, and as a "convert" is an "evangelist" for TrackMaster Software!
At the tender age of 18, Rick began his "career" as a handicapper while working as an "apprentice" at AVCO-LYCOMING in Bridgeport, Connecticut in the mid-60's (a summer job - he was a student-athlete at CLEMSON - Baseball) ... "With both of my parents being teachers, education was the primary goal in our home ... I was pretty oblivious to wagering and horse racing" he notes in his TrackMaster "talks." However, in Bridgeport during this era, there was no opportunity to visit an OTW ... so bookmakers were "rampant" in a huge industrial facilty such as AVCO (they built the compression shafts for the SIKORSKY HELICOPTERS)... After just two weeks of watching this "unknown activity" ... he suggested that for $2.00 per person, that "I will drive to New York (only 50 miles) and place the bets legally, and bring back the "winnings!" His first visit to Belmont was the "charm!" He had never been to a Thoroughbred facility ... and as he notes ... "when I went through the gate .. and saw Belmont for the first time ... I was 'hooked! I talked to the 'old guys' ... learned how to 'read the form' ... how to understand the importance of speed -- class -- and pace. And two weeks later, he was no longer running an ID (Internal-Dimension) Grinder ... but driving his VolksWagen Beetle to Belmont, and earning about $100.00 per day as a "runner!"
Horse racing has seemingly "followed" his moves ... while at CLEMSON .. he stopped at Belmont-Aqueduct ... PIMLICO-LAUREL-BOWIE-TIMONIUM on his trips back and forth to South Carolina/Connecticut ... later attended graduate school and taught in the Amherst, Massachusetts area ... (30 min. driving distance to HINSDALE, N.H. {HARNESS - now a greyhound facility} .. took a teaching assignment at Universidade Federal do Rio de Janerio in BRAZIL ... lived directly across the street from Joqui Clube Brasileiro (the Thoroughbred Track in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) and returned to the US to teach in Pennsylvania ... PENN NATIONAL was 60 miles to the North ... CHARLES TOWN was 60 miles to the South ... and PENN NATIONAL built an OTW across the street (in Chambersburg, PA) for Rick to use!
UPDATE ... Rick now lives in Palo Alto, California ... a scant 20 minutes South of BAY MEADOWS!
UPDATE #2 ... Rick has moved back to "The Keystone State" to help East Coast TrackMaster customers, and lives a scant 2 miles from Penn National Race Course in Grantville, PA .. and also directs the Science and Math programs at an inner-city school in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania!
Rick has a BS degree from CLEMSON in Entomology 
, has completed the M.S. portion of a joint MS/Phd program at
UMASS in Pesticide Chemistry, and an advanced degree in Portuguese from
Pontifico Universidade Catholico in Brazil ... he wrote the software
for the SCIENCE AND MATH FORUM on CompuServe (which after 21 years of
continuous on-line use, now has more than 175,000 users worldwide ...
and it includes a TrackMaster library section), and writes a horse
racing column DAILY for not only TrackMaster ... but for 2 other
"Web Sites" (Rolling Good Times Online and Virtual Vegas) .. he
travels to many East Coast facilities as the result of a "retirement
-from-teaching" position which involves the importation of Oriental
Rugs from Europe ... he serves as a translator (English-Portuguese-Spanish-French)
for these "negotiations" and has been known to "show up" at Calder - Hialeah - Gulfstream -
Louisiana Downs - Suffolk Downs - Rockingham - Aqueduct - Belmont - Saratoga
- Laurel - Pimlico (and of course ... PENN NATIONAL and PHILADELPHIA
PARK) on almost a regular basis!
He is also a contributor to the SPORTSMASTER software package, and utilizes this analysis tool on a daily basis to handicap professional and college football, basketball and baseball games. His column on RGTonline.com is also known as THE BIG GAME HUNTER. Rick also produces a local radio show ... "THE SIMULCAST ZONE" on RADIO STATION WCBG in Chambersburg, PA.
COMMENTS ARE OF COURSE WELCOME!!!
RICK NEEDHAM (RICK'S EMAIL HOME)
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Rick uses TrackMaster and SportsMaster software EXCLUSIVELY ... these products are developed by AXCIS INFORMATION SYSTEMS in Sunnyvale, California ... to visit their WEB SITE use this "HOT LINK!" http://www.trackmaster.com |
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