"RACHAEL"
WINS EASILY AT MONMOUTH PARK!
RICK NEEDHAM'S BETTER BETTOR
WINS EASILY AT MONMOUTH PARK!
#4 FOREVER TOGETHER
#1 PROVISO
#3 PHOLA
#6 SHARED ACCOUNT
For you folks who enjoy a little Thoroughbred Racing History to accompany your handicapping efforts today, The Diana Handicap is named for Diana, who was the mythological goddess of the hunt. Six fine mares, Miss Grillo, Searching, Tempted, Shuvee, Hush Dear, and Glowing Honor have won the Diana twice. Hall of Fame mare Gamely would be included on this list but for the fact that she became the first winner to be disqualified in the Diana, in 1968. She did, however, come back to win this race in 1969. Shuvee not only won the Diana twice, but she also holds the record for the most weight carried to a win in this race, 128 pounds, in the 1971 renewal. Since its inaugural running in 1939, and until 1973, the DIANA HANDICAP was run on the main track at its present distance of a mile and a furlong. Here in the 72nd renewal of "The Diana," #4 FOREVER TOGETHER has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, and gets a return ride from Jockey Julian Leparoux ... Leparoux has been in her irons on 11 previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning 5 times, en route to a 112% return on investment in the process. #1 PROVISO, a British-bred entry, comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts.
RACING NEWS: A strong field of 12 turf sprinters, a few of which could end up in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. I) later this year, is set for the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup Handicap at five furlongs on the grass July 31 at Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course. The Governor’s Cup, the richest race of the year at Penn National, is the fifth race on a card that begins at 6:30 p.m. EDT. Other stakes on the program are the $75,000 Capital City Stakes on turf and the $75,000 East Hanover Township Stakes on dirt. Moore Management LLC’s Chamberlain Bridge is the solid morning-line choice for the Governor’s Cup at 5-2. The War Chant gelding comes off an easy victory in the grade III Arlington Sprint Handicap at 5 1/2 furlongs June 26 when automatically qualifying for the Breeders' Cup. Trained by Bret Calhoun and to be ridden by Jamie Theriot, Chamberlain Bridge finished third in last year’s Governor’s Cup. Eleven of his 13 career wins have come in turf sprints. Mason Dixon Stables’ Cardashi, winner of the 2009 Governor’s Cup at 29-1, seeks a repeat for trainer Tim Kresier and jockey David Cora. By Kiridashi, Cardashi is three-for-three on the turf at Penn Natoinal, where he is stabled. He is 12-1 on the morning line. The 12 entrants in the Governor’s Cup have a total of 65 victories in turf sprints.
HOME TRACK BONUS
#5 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE
#4 BLUE SAILOR
#2 PHOSPHORESCENT
#7 CARDASHI
#5 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE ships in from Arlington Park for tonight's feature, which has the highest purse structure in Penn National's history ... but "shipping in" is a regular moniker for this entry as his last four races have been contested at Arlington, Churchill Downs, Keeneland, and The Fair Grounds, where he turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each, hitting the board in three, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Jamie Theriot was in his irons for those last four outings, and in 10 races overall, hitting the board in 9 of those "adventures," and is here in Grantville tonight, displaying his efforts on local ABC27 TV who will be showing this race "live" tonight! #4 BLUE SAILOR, a 6-1 shot,, and has won 11 times in his career to date sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the turf, and has turned in a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five starts.
BRAZILIAN "BRAHMA BEER LONGSHOTS" JULY 31, 2010
NOTE: The longshot entries listed below have been "found" utilizing TrackMaster's fantastic new product Ultra Angles ... I have utilized this product to scan EVERY TRACK in North America for entries today meeting the following 3 criteria:
a. Odds are GREATER THAN 4-1
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.
Delaware Park - Race #9 - 4:51PM - #6 ME LOVE 10/1
Ellis Park - Race #2 - 1:18PM - #7 FOREST PICNIC 30/1
NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.
NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at rneedham1@yahoo.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.
For Baltimore to succeed they will "have to run!" The Ravens have to run straight at the Colts, right up the gut. Indianapolis has too much speed, so the Ravens won't be able to beat them off the perimeter. But the Ravens' big tackles should be able to run straight at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens can run early, that will force the Colts to put a safety up near the box and out of cover 2. That's when the passing game will succeed. They will also have to "Blitz Manning." The blitzes have to come up the middle, not from off the perimeter. Manning and New England quarterback Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust, and side step those blitzes without any difficulty. But both players have trouble with blitzes up the middle because you can get into a quarterback's face very quickly. The Ravens even used some of their outside linebackers up the middle against the Patriots, and it worked. You can expect the same thing against the Colts. And I guess my big question is "Can They Score early?" The Ravens know they can play with the Colts, and should have beaten them earlier this year. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens need to score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence after they beat the Patriots last week. If they can come out and score a touchdown early, their confidence will only grow.
However ... from Indy's perspective ... they will "make the Ravens one-dimensional." And that one dimension is throwing the football. Baltimore ran over New England en route to Saturday night's rematch with the Colts, rushing 52 times for 234 yards. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Coordinator Larry Coyer's defensive front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of LB Clint Session and S Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. When the Colts posted a 17-15 win at Baltimore in November, they led a surge that limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, beat you. They will also "protect and produce!" The Colts are virtually unbeatable when QB Peyton Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 straight regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The offense, though, suffered three turnovers in the latest regular-season meeting, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when the opportunity for a big play presents itself. The Colts will also need to "win without Vinatieri." Adam Vinatieri, arguably the best clutch kicker in NFL history, still isn't 100 percent after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in October. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In the 17-15 win in November, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens PK Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals, but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 divisional-round game en route to the Super Bowl. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win with five field goals.
Bottom Line Department: The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on. I'll TAKE THE COLTS by 10.0!
From New York's sideline ... they will need to "Win the turnover battle!" In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 8-0, including wins in their last two regular-season games. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. The Jets need to run the ball effectively, as they did Sunday against the Bengals, so they can keep the game from being decided by QB Mark Sanchez. The Jets want him to manage the game, not win or lose it. And hopefully, they can "Win the Chess Match!" Yes, Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer started and played into the third quarter last Sunday night, but the Bengals showed very little on offense, keeping it as vanilla as possible. While the Jets certainly didn't show everything in their defensive arsenal, they showed more than Cincinnati's offense, simply because the Jets needed the game. They must be prepared for many more wrinkles from Palmer & Co. this time. And I guess ... they will need to "Make big plays on offense!" Brad Smith has keyed the Jets' past two victories, but the Bengals surely will be more aware of him this time around whenever he is in the game. If Cincinnati forces him to pitch out when he runs the option, it will be up to trailing back Shonn Greene to make something happen. Or perhaps Sanchez will need to turn it loose once or twice and look for Braylon Edwards downfield.
And from "Cincy's viewpoint" ... they need to
"Contain the run!" The Jets have a formidable set of running backs in Thomas Jones (1,402 yards), Shonn Greene (540) and Brad Smith (207). Jones is speedy, quick and elusive; Greene is a hammer; Smith is a valuable weapon out of the Wildcat formation. If the Bengals can't contain them and can't third-and-long situations, they'll be at the mercy of the clock-eating Jets.
And I am wondering if they can "Take the ball away!" In order to prevail, the Bengals must win the turnover battle. They're 37-6-1 under head coach Marvin Lewis when they generate a plus turnover differential. On the flip side, they're 7-35 under Lewis when they have a minus turnover differential. The Bengals, who have been limited to three second-half TDs in the past nine games, must create opportunities and take advantage of them.
And without question, the will need to "Turn the tables!" Running back Cedric Benson and the offensive line hold the keys to victory. The line is built to run the ball, and Benson has the speed, power, quickness and agility to move the chains and cross the goal line. The Bengals' goal is to keep the game close, then win it in the fourth quarter in true "Cardiac Cats" style like they've done so many times this year. Cincinnati has scored only 49 points in the third quarter this season, a sign that they struggle with halftime adjustments. The offense is also famous for false starts, and alignment and assignment errors. If they don't clean up the mistakes, they can't win.
BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The Bengals made their intentions clear in the final game of the regular season. They preferred to take their chances in a playoff rematch against Sanchez rather than face Texans gunslinger Matt Schaub. The Bengals, who get two injured starters -- defensive tackle Domata Peko and free safety Chris Crocker -- back for the playoffs, believe they can contain New York's vaunted running attack and cause Sanchez to make mistakes by throwing the ball sooner than he wants. Like the Jets on Sunday night, the Bengals will have a stadium full of passionate fans behind them. But that won't bother the confident Jets, who have exactly what you need come playoff time --- a great defense, a great rushing attack and momentum. I'll TAKE THE JETS in an upset!
COWBOYS (-3½) OVER EAGLES THE OVER (43.0) RAVENS AT PATRIOTS - (CHECK WEATHER) THE OVER (47.0) PACKERS AT CARDINALS
GMAC BOWLJANUARY 6TH - 7:00 PM EST - ESPNCENTRAL MICHIGAN (-3½) X TROY
Three Reasons To Watch This Bowl:
1) Points, Points, Points. The two teams
combine to average 66 a game. 2) Yards, yards,
yards. Troy is third in the nation averaging 479
yards per game while CMU averaged 417 yards per
outing. 3) Quarterbacks, quarterbacks, quarterbacks.
Dan LeFevour is a three-time MAC champion
quarterback and the most accomplished player in
league history. Troy QB Levi Brown is the Sun Belt
Player of the Year. I'll TAKE THE OVER (62.0)
ORANGE BOWLJANUARY 5TH - 8:00 PM EST - FOXIOWA X GEORGIA TECH (-4.0)
Three Reasons To Watch This Bowl:
1) Does the option really work against a good
defense with time to prepare for it? This is one of
those We'll Learn Something bowls. 2) Iowa has won
three of its last four bowl games. This year's
Hawkeye D is the real deal. 3) This is big for the
ACC. Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati last year, but
lost the previous six Orange Bowls. A win should
finally start to bring the league a little more
respect. A little. I'll TAKE IOWA to win outright! JANUARY 4TH EST - 8:00 PM EST - FOX BOISE STATE X T.C.U. (-7½))
Three
Reasons To Watch This Bowl:
1) Really, this might be the national
championship game. These two are playing better than
the Longhorns and the Tide. 2) These might be the
two most complete teams in America. TCU leads the
nation in defense and if fourth in offense, and
first in kickoff returns. Boise State is No. 1 in
scoring offense, 13th in total defense, and ninth in
punting. 3) Jerry Hughes and the TCU pass rush vs.
Boise State's offensive line that has allowed the
fewest number of sacks in America. I'll TAKE BOISE STATE to BEAT THE SPREAD!
January 3, 2010
EAGLES AT COWBOYS ( 3.0)Well folks ... does it really get any better than this? Philadelphia on the road in Dallas with the NFC East title at stake. Last year, with Dallas needing a victory in the final game to get into the playoffs, the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys 44-6. Now, the Cowboys have an opportunity to exact revenge. One could make the case that this game involves two of the NFC's three hottest teams, with Green Bay being the third. Philadelphia, which typically peaks this time of the year, has won six consecutive games since losing to Dallas in November. The Cowboys gave New Orleans its first loss and shut out Washington last week. The Eagles' quick-strike offense gives them the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Andy Reid is a master at creating mismatches and confusion whether with misdirection or bunch formations. He's a daring play-caller -- sometimes he takes too many risks -- and it's Donovan McNabb's ability to take advantage of one or two of the opportunities created by Reid that are often the difference. But the Cowboys are playing terrific team defense. The Giants are the only team to score more than 21 points against Dallas this season, and when Dallas faced Philadelphia earlier this season, the Cowboys held Philadelphia below its season averages in points and yards.From the Philadelphia sideline, they will need to "watch the edges." The Cowboys' blitz has come alive in the past two weeks, with Dallas totaling three sacks in each of its past three games. Outside LBs Spencer and Ware have combined for five sacks in the past four games. Spencer and Ware are fast off the edges and threaten to disrupt McNabb's timing, especially on five-step drops, if they're not picked up. They will alson need to "set the tempo." Thanks to their explosive offense, the Eagles have outscored opponents 99-50 in the first half during their six-game win streak. If they can jump on Dallas early and set the pace in a game that will decide the NFC East champion, it'll quiet the home crowd and put all the pressure on the Cowboys. Pressure usually leads to pressing, which often results in mistakes. And finally, they will need to "put the ball in DeSean Jackson's hands!" In the biggest game of the season, the Eagles need to get the ball to their best playmaker. Jackson has receiving touchdowns in five straight games, one shy of tying a club record. He only had two receptions for 29 yards against Dallas in the first matchup -- his third-fewest receiving yards of the season. The Eagles can't let the Cowboys take Jackson out of the game and expect to win. And for the "Underdog Boys," they will to "attack C Nick Cole!" Jamaal Jackson, who had started 71 consecutive games at center for the Eagles, is out for the season. That means Nick Cole, who had been the left guard, will move to center. This could be disastrous, because he'll make his debut against Jay Ratliff, one of the league's best nose guards. Cole must handle Ratliff's quickness to keep him from being a disruptive force up the middle and send McNabb scrambling into the arms of DeMarcus Ware or Anthony Spencer. Cole will also be responsible for make the protection calls and other adjustments critical to the offense functioning effectively. They will also try to "limit DeSean Jackson's explosive plays." With all due respect to Miles Austin, Jackson is the best big-play threat in the league. He's averaging 18.9 yards per catch and has scored nine touchdowns. He has 17 receptions of 20 yards or more and 10 of more than 40. The Eagles do a good job of creating mismatches with him, and he has so much speed that he just once he has a step on his opponent, he's gone. He caught only two passes for 29 yards in the first meeting between these teams, which is one reason the Eagles scored just 16 points. The Cowboys won't be afraid to double him because they trust CBs Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman in one-on-one situations. And hopefully, they will be able to "convert third- and fourth-and-one." Earlier this season, the Cowboys' owned short-yardage situations, especially with Marion Barber carrying the ball. They converted 10 of 11. But they've struggled lately in those situations. Two weeks ago, Barber was stopped three times from the one by San Diego. Last week against the Redskins, the Cowboys failed to convert twice on third-and-1 and once on fourth-and-1. The blame has been equally dispersed between Barber, the offensive line and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The Cowboys are feeling better about themselves than at any other point of the season. Also, the pressure of making the playoffs is off. They're home and playing a team that humiliated them last season. They have every reason to make a statement. For once, the wine-and-cheese crowd at Cowboys Stadium will be hyped from the opening kickoff. This will have a playoff feel to it. i'LL TAKE THE COWBOYS TO BEAT THE SPREAD!
he's never smoked a cigar in his life, and has not read the DRF in more that 25 years, and as a "convert" is an "evangelist" for TrackMaster Software! At the tender age of 18, Rick began his "career" as a handicapper while working as an "apprentice" at AVCO-LYCOMING in Bridgeport, Connecticut in the mid-60's (a summer job - he was a student-athlete at CLEMSON - Baseball) ... "With both of my parents being teachers, education was the primary goal in our home ... I was pretty oblivious to wagering and horse racing" he notes in his TrackMaster "talks." However, in Bridgeport during this era, there was no opportunity to visit an OTW ... so bookmakers were "rampant" in a huge industrial facilty such as AVCO (they built the compression shafts for the SIKORSKY HELICOPTERS)... After just two weeks of watching this "unknown activity" ... he suggested that for $2.00 per person, that "I will drive to New York (only 50 miles) and place the bets legally, and bring back the "winnings!" His first visit to Belmont was the "charm!" He had never been to a Thoroughbred facility ... and as he notes ... "when I went through the gate .. and saw Belmont for the first time ... I was 'hooked! I talked to the 'old guys' ... learned how to 'read the form' ... how to understand the importance of speed -- class -- and pace. And two weeks later, he was no longer running an ID (Internal-Dimension) Grinder ... but driving his VolksWagen Beetle to Belmont, and earning about $100.00 per day as a "runner!" Horse racing has seemingly "followed" his moves ... while at CLEMSON .. he stopped at Belmont-Aqueduct ... PIMLICO-LAUREL-BOWIE-TIMONIUM on his trips back and forth to South Carolina/Connecticut ... later attended graduate school (UMASS) and taught in the Amherst, Massachusetts area ... (30 min. driving distance to HINSDALE, N.H. {HARNESS - now a greyhound facility} .. took a teaching assignment at Universidade Federal do Rio de Janerio in BRAZIL ... lived directly across the street from Joqui Clube Brasileiro (the Thoroughbred Track in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) and returned to the US to teach in Pennsylvania ... PENN NATIONAL was 60 miles to the North ... CHARLES TOWN was 60 miles to the South ... and PENN NATIONAL built an OTW across the street (in Chambersburg, PA) for Rick to use! UPDATE ... Rick now lives in Palo Alto, California ... a scant 20 minutes South of BAY MEADOWS! UPDATE #2 ... Rick has moved back to "The Keystone State" to help East Coast TrackMaster customers, and lives a scant 2 miles from Penn National Race Course in Grantville, PA .. and also has directed the Science and Math programs at an inner-city school in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania!
Rick has a BS degree from CLEMSON in Entomology Rick was also a contributor to the SPORTSMASTER software package (now using an archived software version), and utilizes this analysis tool on a daily basis to handicap professional and college football, basketball and baseball games. His column on RGTonline.com is also known as THE BIG GAME HUNTER. Rick also has produced a local radio show ... "THE SIMULCAST ZONE" on RADIO STATION WCBG in Chambersburg, PA.
COMMENTS ARE OF COURSE WELCOME!!!
RICK NEEDHAM (RICK'S EMAIL HOME)
"BET WITH YOUR HEAD ... NOT OVER IT!"
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Rick Needham (alias TrackMaster Rick) has been known to "poke
some fun" at the patrons that he observes at the racing facilities
and OTW establishments that he visits almost daily, in his column
here at INNERNET.NET... he's also been known to "poke some fun" at
himself during the countless number of TrackMaster-handicapping-
computer lectures that he has done on the East/West Coasts at
facilities-establishments-civic club functions etc ... "Hey ...
what is your 'vision' of the archetypcal handicapper?" he asks in
his "opening." "Hmmm ... middle aged ... balding ... slightly
overweight ... cigar smoking ... Daily Racing Form Reading ...???"
Well ... 
, has completed the M.S. portion of a joint MS/Phd program at
UMASS in Pesticide Chemistry, and an advanced degree in Portuguese from
Pontifico Universidade Catholico in Brazil (Rick taught Chemistry at Escola Americana in Rio de Janeiro for some five years - perhaps the most rewarding experience of his life! He also wrote the software
for the SCIENCE AND MATH FORUM on CompuServe (which after 34 years of
continuous on-line use, now has more than 1,175,000 users worldwide ...
and it includes a TrackMaster library section), and writes a horse
racing column DAILY for not only TrackMaster ... but for 2 other
"Web Sites" (Rolling Good Times Online and Virtual Vegas) .. he
travels to many East Coast facilities as the result of a "retirement
-from-teaching" position which involves the importation of Oriental
Rugs from Europe ... he serves as a translator (English-Portuguese-Spanish-French)
for these "negotiations" and has been known to "show up" at Calder - Hialeah - Gulfstream -
Louisiana Downs - Suffolk Downs - Rockingham - Aqueduct - Belmont - Saratoga
- Laurel - Pimlico (and of course ... PENN NATIONAL, PHILADELPHIA
PARK and CHARLES TOWN) on almost a regular basis!