#6 CANAL SIX
#2 COLOR BLIND
#4 GIRLABOUTOWN qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-9), and is the speed leader in this O.C. field, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her four career starts to date, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. Jockey Jose Ortiz was in her irons for each of those four outings, and is back this afternoon for his 5th ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!" #5 OFFICIAL has hit the board in five straight, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.
RACING NEWS: Santa Anita Park is returning the Santa Anita Handicap to $1 million in 2015, and also hiked the purse for its other leading main track event for older horses, the San Antonio Stakes, to a record $500,000. The track announced the purse changes Nov. 19 for its winter/spring meet, returning the Big 'Cap to the level it enjoyed from 1986 to 2009. This year's Santa Anita Handicap, at 1 1/4 miles on dirt, is March 7. The San Antonio, at 1 1/8 miles, received a $200,000 bump for its Feb. 7 renewal. The Santa Anita Handicap is one of two $1 million races on the schedule along with the Santa Anita Derby, April 4. In all, there will be eight grade I races and 37 graded stakes held during the stand. Santa Anita has canceled the Strub Stakes, an historically significant race for 4-year-olds that had traditionally been contested in the San Antonio's calendar slot. The race had been moved to mid-January last year, replacing the canceled San Fernando Stakes, and reduced in distance from nine furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. The Strub is the only major race to be removed from the stakes calendar for the 2014-15 season, which runs from Dec. 26 to April 19. There was one addition to the schedule, the grade III $100,000 Midnight Lute Stakes scheduled Dec. 27 at 6 1/2 furlongs. It was previously the Vernon Underwood Stakes when contested at Hollywood Park. The track announced that two other stakes will receive purse increases this season, both March 7. The Frank E. Kilroe Mile (gr. IT) on the turf will be boosted from $350,000 to $400,000, and the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) for 3-year-olds on the same day will be increased by $100,000 to $400,000. The meet kicks off Dec. 26 with the Malibu and La Brea (both gr. I) headlining the card. In addition to the Malibu, La Brea, Kilroe, Big 'Cap, and Derby, also included on Santa Anita's grade I stakes roster are the Las Virgenes Stakes Jan. 31, the Santa Margarita Stakes March 14, and the Santa Anita Oaks April 4.
The handicap series for older horses begins Jan. 10 with the $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes (gr. II) Jan. 10 at 1 1/16 miles. "With the increases, these three races will now offer a total of $1.7 million in graded purse money leading into and including the Santa Anita Handicap," said Rick Hammerle, Santa Anita vice president of racing. Santa Anita has also announced a couple of name changes. The $200,000 Mathis Brothers Mile (turf), which was formerly run as the Sir Beaufort, is on the opening day card; and for the former Potrero Grande Stakes (gr. II) will now be run as the $200,000 Kona Gold Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs April 11. One of the biggest days on the calendar is the annual Sunshine Millions/California Cup Day, to be held Jan. 24. Five stakes for California bred or sired horses will be carded: The Cal Cup Derby, Cal Cup Oaks, Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint, Cal Cup Sprint, and the Cal Cup Classic. They will offer horsemen $975,000 in total purse money. "We combined what had formerly been Cal Cup Day with the Sunshine Millions program last year and it was very well received," said Hammerle. "This is a perfect time of the year for these races and with the Golden State Series incentive program in play, it provides our local breeders and owners with outstanding opportunities and allows them to plan accordingly for the remainder of the calendar year." Santa Anita's schedule of traditional Santa Anita Derby preps will include races worth a total of 170 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. First up is the $100,000 Sham Stakes (gr. III) at one mile Jan. 10, followed by the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at 1 1/16 miles Feb. 7, and the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at 1 1/16 miles March 7.
The Santa Anita Derby winner has also captured the Kentucky Derby in two of the past three seasonsóI'll Have Another in 2012 and California Chrome this past season. Following the meet, Santa Anita's 2014 spring meet will open on April 25, and run through June 28.
RaceAnalyser Thoroughbred Handicapping Software
Disclaimer: Every attempt has been made to insure accuracy, however since this report is prepared and typed by hand, errors, including typographical and numerical, can be made. It is the responsibility of the end user to "cross check" these selections against the actual entries and program numbers.
BRAZILIAN "BRAHMA BEER LONGSHOTS" - THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2014
a. Odds are at least, 4-1 or greater
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - 8:10PM - #9 BIGTIME FLAVOUR IT 8/1
Finger Lakes - Race #3 - 1:28PM - #7 CHARLIE'S PUNCH 6/1
Finger Lakes - Race #6 - 2:55PM - #2 COALITION 8/1
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.
NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.
NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at email@example.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.
Rick is once again ... "dusting off" his SportsMaster for Football Software ... and his "ancient" Windows Machine ... to for the 8th straight year ... to analyze Professional and College Football for the 2014-2015 season. As he has done in the past .. 100% of the monies for his service are given to his former middle school students who attended The Nativity School of Harrisburg (a middle school for poverty level boys) and are now currently in college. Subscription monies last year purchased text books ... calculators ... lab fees ... etc. for his students.
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2014-2015 ARCHIVED REPORTS:
Issue number one for the Eagles is maintaining their offensive production without starting QB Nick Foles. Foles is likely out for the remainder of the year, leaving Mark Sanchez to lead the leagueís 5th best offense in terms of yards gained and the Eagles enter the week 4th in scoring, averaging 31 points per game. Sanchez has played well, throwing for 534 yards and four touchdowns in a little more than one game. The offense seems to be the same as with Foles and Sanchez has even attempted seven rushes so it appears that the full Chip Kelly playbook is in use. We know what kind of weapon the Eagles have in Jeremy Maclin but Jordan Matthews has chemistry with Sanchez from working together on the second team and it showed with a 7-138-2 performance last week. Green Bay is solid against the pass, ranking ninth in yards allowed and intercepting 12 passes but they are just 30thagainst the run and LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles will give them problems in the pass game.
Aaron Rodgers is the gold-standard of quarterbacking right now and enters the game with 25 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He has found Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb for 18 of those touchdowns and that duo has simply been unstoppable in combining for 1,539 yards already. Eddie Lacy should find some room to run against the 19th best rush defense and the Eagles fall to 21st in total yards allowed. There seems little doubt that the Packers will move the ball and score but Philadelphia has had the X-factor all year whether it be defensive or special teams touchdowns.
This is a great contest on paper with the Eagles 6th and the Packers 7th in the Sagarin rankings and both clubs are dealing with very few injuries. There are plenty of playmakers on the field for both sides so this should come down to who can get that key stop or turn the other team over. Green Bay has nine different players with at least one interception and the defensive scheme seems to be changing with Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers wearing multiple hats. Connor Barwin leads the Eagles with 10.5 sacks and gets to go against a Packer offensive line that hasnít performed well at any point this year. Philadelphia leads the league with four defensive touchdowns.
Rick's Bottom Line: Assuming Rodgers and his receivers get their production is a good bet and the Eagles will have to stay close to prevent Green Bay from zeroing in on Sanchez. McCoy should see more success than his current 3.7 yards per carry average and both he and Sproles should give the Packer linebackers fits in coverage. Watch for Zach Ertz and/or Brent Celek to have some impact in this game as Sanchez likes to work inside the numbers. A third option of Andrew Quarless or Davante Adams should emerge if the Eagles can keep either Cobb or Nelson locked down but make no mistake, both teams will get their points this week. The Packers are 4-0 at home this year and pass the ďeye-testĒ as one of the best teams in football regardless of location. Too much Rodgers will ultimately send the Eagles packing with a loss as Sanchez canít be expected to put up the kind of numbers it will take to keep up. Philly keeps it close as the speedy running backs frustrate the Packers early but a late TD and a little Lacy clockwork put this one to bed. I'll TAKE GREEN BAY to both win and cover!
As mentioned earlier, the Cards have welcomed Palmer back at QB and back to running the show. Even with five wins, the Cards offense has yet to click this season as their 317.8 yards per game average is 28th in the NFL and has to be among the lowest ever for a team in first place. Theyíll face a Eagles defense that has its warts (allowing 381 ypg Ė 24th), but one that knows how to stiffen and turn up the dial in the red zone since they are 13th in scoring defense at 22 points per game. What could be fun to watch for Philly fans is the Eagles on offense this Sunday. Against an Arizona defense that is tops in the NFL in run defense (allow 72.5 ypg), but 31st in pass defense (285 ypg), its almost too easy to be tricky in the Eagles attack if youíre Kelly this week. The Eagles and QB Nick Foles are already 7th in the NFL throwing the ball each week (262 ypg), so if the Eagles start running the ball and punting three-and-out every series, you know the fix is in. Philly snapped a three-game Arizona win streak in this head-to-head series between these two NFC squads. The Eagle prevailed 24-21 at home at the Linc last year, but prior to that the Cardinals had won three straight in the series and three of the last four played in Arizona (dating back to the 2001 season). The Cardinals, however, have been a way, way, way better bet over the years in this series, going 4-0 ATS in the last four and 5-1 ATS in the last six. The over may also be a solid betting trend play, since the over is 7-3 in the last 10 games played in Arizona, and is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in the series overall. The over is also 8-3 in the Eagles last 11 road games.
Rick's Bottom Line Iím pretty sure the line for this game has yet to move in both directions before it actually kicks off on Sunday. That said, Iíd lean toward the Cardinals, especially if it stays under 3 or crawls closer to a pick emí. I'll TAKE THE CARDINALS to both win and cover ... and maybe ... a minor wager on THE OVER (46.0) as well!
From The Irish Sideline: If you didnít know this was Florida State, youíd swear this was a team fighting just to be around the top ten. To put it bluntly, Clemson fumbled/choked in the Doak, and even though there was a key part of the Seminole puzzle missing, backup quarterback Sean Maquire did just fine throwing for 304 yards. Against the FSU defense, NC State QB Jacoby Brissett looked like the next Russell Wilson, bombing away for 359 yards, and the next week he completed 4-of-18 passes against Clemson. Even the blowouts over Wake Forest and Syracuse were underwhelming Ė the Noles just havenít been sharp, even if theyíve been effective. Whatís the problem? The running game isnít there. Last season, FSU ripped up 5.6 yards per carry with 42 touchdowns on the year with six 200-yard games on the year. This season, the ground game has yet to hit the 200-yard mark against any FBS team, and while it averaged over five yards per pop against NC State and Wake Forest, it hasnít been able to establish much of anything on a consistent basis. The rebuilt Irish defensive front has been outstanding, allowing just 663 yards on the year and doing a great job of holding up against anyone who wants to get physical. Jameis Winston might be a proven winner, but he might have to carry the team on his back all by himself.
From The F.S.U. Sideling: Winston has yet to be stopped cold, but he can be slowed down with steady pressure Ė thatís not really Notre Dame. The line did a great job of giving Stanfordís Kevin Hogan a few problems, and the D has come up with three sacks or more in three of the six games, but this isnít necessarily a defense that manufactures enough of a pass rush to slow down the FSU passing attack. The Irish might come up with a sack on one play, and then Winston will get time and connect on a 3rd-and-17 the next Ė teams have been able to hit him, and it hasnít made much of a difference. The real concern for the Irish revolves around the mistakes. They were able to overcome a five turnover day against Syracuse without much of a problem, but after being a 6 in turnover margin in the first two games, theyíve turned it over ten times in the last four with Everett Golson doing everything possible to give it away last week against North Carolina. Notre Dame has to be flawless, and it wonít be.
Rick's Keep Your Eye On Department: Jameis Winston might be the best player in college football by a ten-mile margin, and he still wonít have a shot at the Heisman because of all of the off-field stuff. Even so, this is the type of game that could cement his already legendary status. 19-0 as a starter, for all of his issues and problems, heís able to focus on what he has to do between the lines. The overall stats arenít there like they were last season, but heís been doing just as much to make the machine go, completing 70% of his passes with 11 touchdowns, throwing for over 300 yards in three of his five games, and it wouldíve been five-for-five but he wasnít needed for the whole game against the Citadel and he threw for 297 against Wake Forest. Despite the problems and errors last week against North Carolina, Golson has been Heisman-worthy, throwing for over 220 yards in every game with 16 touchdowns, four picks, and a game-winner on fourth down to beat Stanford. He hasnít needed to be a dangerous runner, but heís effective when he has to be, taking off for a season-high 71 yards last week. 15-1 as a starter Ė and the one loss to Alabama wasnít his fault Ė heís been dangerous at times, ultra-accurate at others Ė hitting 25 straight throws against Syracuse Ė and the ultimate leader now that heís more mature than he was in 2012. This is his team now, and heís taking to the role.
Rick's Bottom Line: Both teams have been able to avoid disaster, and each has been battle tested enough to be ready to handle a game like this on the big stage. Notre Dameís defensive front will shut down the FSU running game cold, and itíll stiffen in the red zone. Winston and FSU will move the ball, but there will be way too many Roberto Aguayo field goals, keeping the door open for the Irish. Unlike the last few weeks, Notre Dame will be mistake-free on both sides of the ball, and Golson will overcome a rocky start by picking apart a Seminole secondary that can be beaten deep. The Irish will control the clock and the tempo in the second half, and even though Winston will connect on a few huge plays, everyone will be talking about Golson after the game as he pulls neck-and-neck with Dak Prescott as the Heisman front-runner. I'll TAKE NOTRE DAME to "Beat The Spread" ... and possibly win outright!!
The over/under total opened at 44 and continues to hover around that number currently, although most books have dropped it down to 43.5 to take the push out of play, but some sports books "overseas" now have it at 46.0 ... ! With Orton playing QB all bets are off as to how well the Bills offense will operate. One could argue the two-headed approach at running back with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller isnít getting either of them enough touches in the ground game. But itís clear that Orton was brought in to upgrade the Bills passing attack (198.5 ypg Ė 31st in NFL), and getting young wideouts Sammy Watkins (17 rec.), Robert Woods (11 rec.) and Mike Williams (7 rec.) more involved in the attack. Theyíll face the No. 1-ranked defense in the league right now, as the Lions are No. 2 versus the pass (186 ypg) and No. 6 versus the run (80.8 ypg) for the season. The Bills defense will have to contend with Mathew Stafford at quarterback, who seems to be starting to show signs of ďchampionshipĒ maturity. Stafford has controlled his interceptions for the most part (3 through 4 games), and the Lions offense has relied on the passing game (276 ypg Ė 7th) to get points on the board this year. Right now Buffalo has been a lousy wager on the road, going 4-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. The best looking betting trend for this matchup is the under, which is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings, and is 4-0 in all four of the Bills games this year, and 3-1 in the Lions four games thus far.
Rick's Bottom Line I fully expect the Lions to win, and theyíll likely win big. There might be a good UNDER (46.0) this afternoon, and I'll also TAKE THE LIONS to win and cover!
From The L.S.U. Sideline: So what did Kansas State do to make it such a close call and to keep the Auburn offense under wraps? For one, the defensive front seven was never, ever caught out of place. Itís hard to stay disciplined against this attack when every instinct says to read and react, when sometimes it really is okay to let the play look like itís running five yards the other way. Kansas State was able to do that and kept the runs to from blowing up into big plays. Can LSU be disciplined enough to handle the misdirection? The speed isnít a problem, and the athleticism is there, but to pull this off, you need a strong running game (check), a defense thatís great on third downs (check), a ball control attack that cam keep possession for over 33 minutes a pop (check), and the turnovers and penalties have to be kept to a minimum (check and check). Basically, LSU is Kansas State, only better.
From The Auburn Sideline: So what did Mississippi State do to rip apart LSUís front seven? Having a bulldozer of a running quarterback like Dak Prescott certainly helped, and being able to run Josh Robinson inside and out was a big plus. Wisconsin was able to use the speed and quickness of Melvin Gordon to put up big numbers for a while, but the real way to handle LSU is to bring the power, and that was the most beautiful part of the Auburn win over Kansas State. When the team needed it, the offensive line kicked it into high gear, forgot about the finesse for a bit, and simply blasted away for grinding, time consuming drives to put the game away. To beat LSU, you need to have an efficient passing game (check) to balance out a dangerous ground attack (check) and you have to be able to control third downs (check). You need to come up with a decent pass rush (check) and the run defense has to be able to hold up for a full four quarters (check). Auburn isnít another Mississippi State, but it might be a whole bunch better.
Rick's "Keep Your Eye On Department: Brandon Harris was this close to being an Auburn Tiger, and now heíll get his first collegiate start for LSU in what has the potential to be a special career. Anthony Jennings was the safer, more experienced choice to start this season, but it was Harris who almost pulled off the impossible against Miss State. When Jennings went 2-of-5 for 11 yards and two picks against New Mexico State, it became an easy call. Harris stepped in and completed 11-of-14 throws for 178 yards and three touchdowns to go along with two rushing scores.
Rick's Bottom Line Welcome to the 16th Annual Not-Funny Groaner guaranteed 100% lock of the year: The Tigers will win! LSU will play far better than it did against MSU. The power of Leonard Fournette and the rest backfield will keep the game under control, but Auburn will have a bit more on offense. It wonít just be the running game; Nick Marshall and the passing attack will unleash the big, talented receivers on the LSU secondary to balance things out just enough to take control early and hang in when Harris comes up with a few outstanding scoring drives. The Auburn Tigers will win and cover!
For going on three years now, the San Francisco 49ers have been considered one of the better teams in the NFC, as well as the NFL. After they lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Title game last season, I turned to my friend and said "well, the Niners are done for awhile." He thought I was crazy, but here we are. The 49ers are 1-2 and on the verge of being 1-3 if they do not right the ship this week. I predicted before this season started that the NFC West would send two teams to the playoffs (Seattle and Arizona). I called an 8-8 finish for the Niners. Kaepernick in my opinion is an incredible athlete, but I think he makes far too many mistakes at the QB position in big moments. I could be wrong but I predict by 2016, the Niners will begin their search for the next "franchise QB." Okay, anyway, enough about my predictions on this team, but I just do not think they are as good as people seem to think. Currently, San Francisco ranks 17th in the NFL in both passing offense and rushing offense. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers are the 7th best team against the run and the 15th best against the pass. In defense of the 49ers, they have played a pretty tough schedule so far. I believe the Bears and Cardinals are both NFC Playoff teams, and the Cowboys are never a pushover in Dallas. The key to this game for t 49ers is to control the ball. They cannot let Philadelphia keep that up tempo offense on the field or it could be a long day for them. On the flip side, not only does San Francisco need to keep the Eagles offense on the sideline, they also need to make sure to slow down the attacking Philly offense. These guys can score at will, and can be very explosive. The Niners must eliminate the big plays and make Philly earn every score.
The Philadelphia Eagles look good, really good. They come into this game 3-0 and 1-0 in their division. Of course the Jacksonville win was a given, but since that week one match-up, the Eagles have taken down the Colts and the Redskins. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards averaging over 310 yards a game. The running game is only ranked 19th in the league, but when you are throwing for over 300 yards, another 110 on the ground is just bonus. This is a solid offense. The weakness in the Eagles however is their pass defense. Opponents are passing for over 280 yards a game. In order to slow down the 49ers, this much improve this week. The running defense is top 15, but they will have their hands full with Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick. The Eagles goals in this game are the same as San Francisco's...keep the other teams defense on the field. Controlling the clock and keeping the other defense winded will be a big key to winning this one.
Rick's Bottom Line: This is a pure toss up. A four-five point home favorite (depending on yoour "book") versus a 3-0 team. I have always liked the home favorites, especially when a team is traveling cross country, but going east to west is not as big of a disadvantage as it is going west to east. The "earlier" start for the west coast team on the east has a much bigger effect. As for right now, 62% of the action is being laid on Philadelphia to cover the four. This is not a big enough range in order to bet contrary to the public opinion. I took much of this breakdown explaining that I do not think San Francisco is that good of a team this year, and I think this Sunday is when the 49ers fans officially go into panic mode. I like the Eagles to go into California and get a win. Look for the Eagles to win a 27-23 type contest or lose by no more than a field goal. I'll TAKE THE EAGLES to at least ... Beat The Spread!
From The Beavers' Sideline: The Beaver D is comprised of all juniors and seniors, and itís operating like a veteran unit. CB Steven Nelson and SS Ryan Murphy headline a secondary that has yet to allow a touchdown pass in 2014. Meanwhile, the USC defense is still trying to recover from the whooping it received from the Boston College ground game. This is a week that Oregon State might want to see backs Terron Ward and Storm Woods complementing the passing of Sean Mannion a little more.
From The Trojans' Viewpoint: After being shut down two weeks ago, the Trojans are going to run the ball with something to prove. Expect a huge day from RB Javorius Allen, whoíll be facing a retooled D-line thatís had issues in run defense lately. Oregon Stateís new-look offensive line must also prove that it can keep DE Leonard Williams and the rest of the USC defenders off Mannionís back. Mannion, by the way, will be down a weapon now that starting WR Victor Bolden is out with an injury.
Rick's "Keep Your Eye on Department: Can Nelson neutralize Nelson Agholor, the best wide receiver heíll face in the first month of the season? Agholor has already caught 23 passes from Cody Kessler, three of which produced six points. And if Nelson is fixated on Agholor, how will Oregon Stateís other starting corner, Larry Scott, manage USC rookie sensation JuJu Smith?
Rick's Bottom Line: Nothing USC did in the first three games was expected, but Troy is about to restore some stability to the program, if only for a week. The Trojans will handle Oregon State easier than expected behind a huge day on the ground from Allen and a solid all-around effort from the defense. I'll TAKE U.S.C. to both win and cover!
NEBRASKA (MINUS 7.0) OVER MIAMI
VIRGINIA (PLUS 15.0) OVER B.Y.U.
GEORGIA TECH (PLUS 8.0) OVER VIRGINIA TECH
EAST CAROLINA (MINUS 2.0) OVER NORTH CAROLINA
REDSKINS (PLUS 7.0) OVER EAGLES