Week Ending - January 13, 2013

Seahawks at Falcons (-3.0) - Sunday January 13, 2013 - 1:00 PM fox

Now the Seahawks have earned the task of taking on the top-seeded 13-3 Falcons at home in the Georgia Dome, a building where Atlanta went 7-1 this season with their only loss coming in the form of a mail-it-in, 22-17, loss in a means-nothing season finale to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago. Despite 13 wins and a strong season, a lot of questions still surround the Falcons going into their opening Divisional playoff game Sunday. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs under head coach Mike Smith and with Matt Ryan playing quarterback, including a one-and-done performance the last time the Falcons were the No. 1 seed in the NFC (in 2010), so both Smith and Ryan will have to remove the 300-lb. monkey off their backs against the red-hot Seahawks who have won six in a row. Those questions still hanging around the Falcons have also had an affect on the opening point spread for Sunday's contest too, with Atlanta only opening the game as slim 1-point favorites at home in round two. With most of the early money tilted in favor of the Falcons as small home favorites, most sportsbooks have since moved the number up to minus -2.5 to stop the flood of Atlanta money at the window. The over/under total opened at 45.5 and can still be found there even though the number is still less than 24 hours old. The sportsbooks that have moved off the opening total have adjusted it up to 46, although you can still find plenty of books sitting at 45.5 still depending on your preference. In addition to the demons the Falcons carry in regards to their playoff woes under Smith and Ryan, there's also some strange statistical anomalies that may plague the Falcons offense in this game.

Ryan and the Falcons have always been known as a solid home team in the dome, but he certainly didn't play that way this season. This year Ryan threw for 71.9 % and 21 touchdowns in his eight road games, but only hit 65.1 % and 11 TDs at home in the Georgia Dome. Ryan's "struggles at home and lack of results also hurt the overall offense, since the Falcons scored 27.9 points per game on the road, as opposed to just 24.5 ppg at home this season. Atlanta also played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, as the winning percentage of the Falcons opponents was a meager .422 in 2012 (108-148). They did go 2-0 against the two playoff teams they played during the regular season (27-21 over Denver in week 2, 24-17 over Washington week 5), so one could argue they played the schedule they were given and took care of business. Don't underestimate the fact that the Falcons will be playing with a huge chip on their shoulders too, as they will hear all week long from everyone and their brother that they haven't won a playoff game yet and will get little respect for most of the talking head "experts" on TV.

Atlanta and Ryan will be facing a Seahawks defense that is starting to look like a unit on a mission for a championship. After giving up a quick 14 points and some early yards to the Redskins last week, the defense tightened and shut down the Redskins running game in the second half. The only issue with the Seattle defense is the possible loss of defensive end Chris Clemons. Clemons, the Seahawks sack leader with 11.5, left the Wild Card game early and it is feared he may have torn his ACL (MRI results are still pending as of press time). If Clemons is indeed lost for the remainder of the postseason, rookie Bruce Irvin will be counted on to replace him. Irvin is solid in his pass-rush ability, but at 248-lbs., you can expect the Falcons to run right at him a lot if he has to play on early downs all game long. The good news is that the Seahawks shouldn't have much trouble getting their running game established on offense. Atlanta gave up 123 yards (21st in NFL) a game rushing and a huge 4.8 yards per carry during the season, a tally both Lynch and Wilson will surely try and take advantage of come Sunday. Atlanta's defense will be at full strength however, as the bye week did a ton of good in healing up injuries as end John Abraham (ankle) and defensive backs Dunta Robinson (concussion), Asante Samuel (shoulder) and William Moore (hamstring) are all listed as probable and are likely to go on Sunday against the Seahawks. If there is one matchup to watch for on Sunday it's in the trenches, where Seattle is using a combo of J.R. Sweezy and John Moffitt at right guard. Sweezy is a former defensive tackle moved over to offense, and Moffitt has bounced on and off the inactive list all season, so look for the Falcons to try and take advantage of the weakness with an active and strong game out of DT Vance Walker (3 sacks) inside. These two teams met last season in Seattle in what turned into a nail-biting, 30-28, win for the visiting Falcons. Of course Wilson wasn't in a Seahawks uniform yet, so any comparisons or overemphasis on that game is a mistake, but it should be noted that Lynch was held to just 24 yards on eight carries in the loss. However, Atlanta held a 20-point lead early in the second half and the Seahawks were forced to abandon the run as they played in catch-up mode for the final 25 minutes of the game.

It should be noted that the underdog is a strong 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings. Seattle is red hot right now both on the field and as a wager (5-1 ATS in L6), and of course Atlanta has struggled in the playoffs (0-4 ATS in L4 playoff games), so the betting trends are also going against the Falcons at home this week. The over also looks like decent trend play on Sunday. Not only is the over 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons, but the over is also 5-1 in Seattle's last six playoff games (only under was last week's game vs. Wash.) and 3-1-1 in the Falcons last five playoff games as well.

Rick's Bottom Line My take here is that Atlanta peaked really early in the season and Seattle is peaking right now. Regular season records don't matter anymore; it's all about who's hot and that team is Seattle. I'll TAKE SEATTLE in an "upset!"

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - MIAMI GARDENS, FL - MONDAY, JANUARY 7, 2013 - 8:30 PM ESPN

ALABAMA (MINUS 9.0) VS. NOTRE DAME

1. It's Notre Dame vs. the SEC champion who's going for a second straight BCS championship and a third in four years. If you need two more reasons, you’re not going to watch this game. You might be the only one – this should be the highest-rated college football game of the BCS era.
2. It’s a battle of two of the nation’s elite defenses playing on the game’s biggest stage. Alabama leads the nation in total defense and is No. 1 against the run, while Notre Dame lead the nation in scoring defense allowing a mere 10.33 points per game. Only on team – Pitt – has scored more than 17 points on the Irish defense, and that game went into triple overtime.
3. The SEC is going for its seventh straight national title, while Notre Dame is trying to get its first since 1988. Considering the two coaching staffs and the respective styles of play – there isn’t anything too fancy happening for either side – this should be a bruising, old-school fight that comes down to who can run the best. It should be as tough and as hard hitting a battle as any game this season.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: With over six weeks to get ready, Alabama could be a machine and there might not be anything the Irish can do about it. The Tide offense leads the nation in passing efficiency, while the Irish don’t come up with too many deep passing plays. The SEC has won six straight national titles, and Nick Saban is Nick Saban, for a reason.

Three Names To Drop:

1. WR Amari Cooper, Fr. Alabama – The Tide receiving corps was hit hard by injuries, but the super-frosh has grown up in a hurry with three 100-yard games in the last four including an eight-catch, 128-yard, one game-winning score day in the SEC championship.
2. DE Stephon Tuitt, Soph. Notre Dame – LB Manti Te’o is the Heisman-caliber star of the defense, but an argument could be made that Tuitt, with his 12 sacks, has been every bit as valuable.
3. LT Cyrus Kouandijo, Soph.; LG Chance Warmack, Sr.; C Barrett Jones, Sr.; RG Anthony Seen, Jr.; RT D.J. Fluker, Jr. Alabama - This is the best unit on the field and the best offensive line in the nation with five future NFL starters.

Rick's Bottom Line: I'll TAKE ALABAMA to win and cover ... easily!

COTTON BOWL - ARLINGTON, TX - FRIDAY, JANUARY 4, 2013 - 8:00 PM - FOX

OKLAHOMA VS. TEXAS A&M (MINUS 4½)

1. The old Big 12 South foes meet again, but under different circumstances. This isn’t your 2011 Texas A&M Aggies; this team is more explosive under head coach Kevin Sumlin with more swagger and more efficiency. Winning ten games and beating Alabama made this a special season, but beating Oklahoma in a BCS-like game would make it an even more special season.
2. Johnny Manziel has, of course, also made this a great year. The redshirt freshman took the SEC by storm and set the conference record for total offense, and now with all the Heisman attention, he has become the marquee name of the bowl season. Everyone wants to see Johnny Football do his thing on the big stage, and getting to play in the Cotton Bowl makes it even more special.
3. Oklahoma might be mad about not getting a BCS invite, but playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl is more fun than going to the Sugar to deal with Florida. Granted, a win over the Gators would do far more for the season as a whole, but beating an SEC that just so happens to be from Texas would also be really, really sweet.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The Cotton Bowl has been a disaster because the Big 12 hasn’t been able to pull its weight. Oklahoma hasn’t exactly come up big in the spotlight games – Texas sort of counts, though – losing to Kansas State and Notre Dame at home, but now it has to buck the recent trend. Not only has the Big 12 lost eight of the last nine games, but it has been blown out in the last four. The last five Cotton Bowls have been decided by 13 points or more.

Three Names To Drop:

1. DE Damontre Moore, Jr. Texas A&M – Manziel is getting all the hype, but Moore is having almost as good a year from the defensive side with 12.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. He leads an aggressive defensive front that’s terrific at getting to the quarterback.
2. RB Damien Williams, Jr. Oklahoma – The passing game will always butter the bread at OU, but Williams has added more pop to the ground game with 92 yards or more in three of the last four games. Coming off a strong 115-yard day against TCU, he’s helping to balance out the attack.
3. OT Luke Joeckel, Jr. & OT Jake Matthews, Jr. Texas A&M – Part of the reason Manziel has come up with his historic season is because of a line that’s among the best in college football. Joeckel is an athletic left tackle and Matthews is a terrific blocker on the right side; both are going to have very long, very strong pro careers.

Rick's Bottom Line: "A 'strange' prediction folks ... if Manziel is awarded The Heisman Trophy ... I'll TAKE THE UNDER (71.0) ... if he doesn't win .. I'll TAKE THE OVER!

FIESTA BOWL - GLENDALE, AZ - THURSDAY, JANUARY 3, 2013 - 8:30 PM - ESPN

KANSAS STATE VS. OREGON (MINUS 4.0)

1. It’s the alternative national championship. Before Oregon lost to Stanford and Kansas State lost to Baylor within minutes of each other on November 17th, these two were on a collision course for the BCS championship. Helped by the great coaching matchup of Chip Kelly vs. Bill Snyder, a case could be made that this might be the best of all BCS matchups.
2. Each team can light up the stat sheet. The Ducks are as fun and as explosive as anyone in college football, averaging close to 51 points per game only because they took their foot off the gas in several games – they could’ve hunt at least 80 on the board in several games. The ground game is third in the nation, while Kansas State averages 198 yards per game and is averaging 41 points per game.
3. The Fiesta is almost always worth the price of admission. Three of the last four and four of the last six have been decided by a touchdown or less highlighted by two overtime classics – last years’ 41-38 Oklahoma State win over Stanford and the Boise State win over Oklahoma in 2007.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: There’s a chance Oregon comes out and blows the doors off the Wildcats. Kansas State is a tough, hard-nosed team that’s all about ball control, while the Ducks can blink and put 21 up on the board.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB John Hubert, Jr. Kansas State – Collin Klein is a special quarterback who’s looking to make a splash in his final game, but it’s Hubert who needs to balance things out. He has rushed for 892 yards and three scores on the season.
2. QB Marcus Mariota, Soph. Oregon – He’ll be overshadowed by Klein, but he has had just as strong a season throwing 30 touchdown passes with just six picks, while running for 690yards and four scores.
3. LB Arthur Brown, Sr. Kansas State – The overall stats might not be all that great, but he’s the unquestioned heart-and-soul of a tough defense. He needs to have a huge game.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'm tempted to go with THE OVER (76.0) ... but that may even be too high for these high-powered offenses ... so, I'll TAKE OREGON to win and cover the spread!"

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL - DALLAS, TX - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2013 - 12:00 PM - ESPNU

PURDUE VS. OKLAHOMA STATE (MINUS 14½)

1. It’s possible that this could be one of the wildest shootouts of the bowl season if Purdue holds up its end of the bargain. The Boilermakers are coming off a 56-35 win over Indiana with a passing game that started to do a bit more over the final few games. Oklahoma State is fifth in the nation in total offense averaging close to 550 yards per game.
2. The mediocre OSU pass defense is a positive for those who want a fun bowl game. Purdue needs to get hot early in a shootout, and it needs to take advantage of a Cowboy D that gives up big plays. This is a veteran Boilermaker team that won’t be afraid of the limelight.
3. Maybe Purdue can take on an us-against-the-world attitude. No one is going to believe this game will be anything but a blowout. The team is playing with house money after rallying just to get bowl eligible, and it should play loose and free. However …

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: How will Purdue play without a head coach? Wide receivers coach Patrick Higgins will be the interim head man while the program courts Cincinnati’s Butch Jones, but the team needs to be razor sharp to hang around with the Cowboys, and won’t be.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Joseph Randle, Jr. Oklahoma State – There are several decent backs in the game, but Randle is a star coming off a 1,351-yard, 14 touchdown season. With his quickness and burst, he’s destined for the next level and should come up with a huge game before having a big decision to make.
2. DT Kawann Short, Sr. Purdue – The Boilermakers had a rough season against the run, but Short did what he could with six sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss with four blocked kicks. After putting off the NFL for a year, this is his last chance to make a big statement.
3. PK/P Quinn Sharp, Sr. Oklahoma State – The nation’s best all-around kicker, he got hot again after a bit of a rocky start to nail 15 of his last 16 kicks. He’s also a special punter averaging 45.8 yards per try.

Rick's Bottom Line: "it's a big spread folks ... but ... OKLAHOMA STATE will win and cover!"

GATOR BOWL - JACKSONVILLE, FL - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2012 - 12:00 PM - ESPNU

MISSISSIPPI STATE (MINUS 2.0) VS. NORTHWESTERN

1. Yes, really, Northwestern could finally be able to come up with a bowl win for the first time since 1948. It’s not like recent bowls when the Wildcats had to play up – they’re really and truly good enough to break the bowl win drought against a reeling Mississippi State team that lost four of its final five games. This is a game the Big Ten HAS to have.
2. Strength on strength. Mississippi State has a terrific punting game, even if Baker Swedenburg’s average is just under 41 yards per kick. Northwestern is third in the nation in punt returns thanks to Venric Mark. It should be a fun game-within-the-bowl-game matchup.
3. Turnover margin. For those of you who want a clean game, Miss State is fifth in the nation in turnover margin and Northwestern is tenth. Neither team is that bad when it comes to penalties.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Be honest; you’re going to forget this game is going on. With Purdue and Oklahoma State starting at the same time in the Heart of Dallas, and with the big boys kicking off an hour later in the Outback and Capital One, sleep in after New Year’s night and you might miss this.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Venric Mark, Jr. Northwestern – The Wildcat star might be the most entertaining player you haven’t seen. Not only has he rushed for 1,310 yards with 11 scores, but he’s been an elite punt and kick returner and a solid receiver. He’s the most dangerous player on the field.

2. CB Johnthan Banks, Sr. Mississippi State – One of the nation’s best defensive backs is dangerous with the ball in his hands and a sure tackler. With his size and talent, he’s going to make a lot of money at the next level for a long time.

3. QB Kain Colter, Jr. Northwestern – With time to prepare, how will the NU coaching staff use Colter? He’s part quarterback, part receiver, part running back, but he’s going to be used in a variety of ways.

Rick's Bottom Line: I'm TAKING NORTHWESTERN in an upset!

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - ORLANDO, FL - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2013 - 1:00 PM - ABC

GEORGIA (MINUS 10.0) VS. NEBRASKA

1. The Bulldogs were a tipped pass – or maybe spike – away from playing for the national championship. However, the tag still applies that Mark Richt can’t win the really, really big one, and while the Capital One doesn’t necessarily count as much as the SEC championship, a loss, especially after losing in triple-overtime in last year’s Outback, won’t sit well. Nebraska just got blown out by Wisconsin – the Dawgs can’t lose this game.
2. Nebraska has a little something to prove. Not only did it get destroyed in the Capital One last year, but all the fun of this season went bye-bye as Wisconsin ran up and down the field in a 70-31 embarrassment of a Big Ten championship. Georgia has only one great win this season – the ugly performance against Florida – the Huskers can’t lose this game.
3. Before the disaster in Indianapolis, Nebraska couldn’t seem to play a boring game. Time and again, the Huskers managed to pull wins out of the fire. Meanwhile, Georgia showed against Alabama that it deserved an even bigger bowl slot. These two are entertaining.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The last two Capital One games have hardly been scintillating. South Carolina beat up Nebraska 30-13 last year, and Alabama beat Michigan State the year before in one of the ugliest big bowl games in a long, long time. If Georgia plays up to its capabilities, this might be a thirds straight uggo.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Todd Gurley, Fr. Georgia – With the way Wisconsin ran up and down the field on the Huskers, Gurley and running mate Keith Marshall have to be licking their chops. Gurley is the stronger of the two with 122 yards and two scores against Alabama, finishing with 1,260 yards and 16 scores.
2. QB Taylor Martinez, Jr. Nebraska – All the great strides he made this year blew up in smoke with the loss to Wisconsin. However, he came up with one of the greatest touchdown runs of all-time, and now he’s just 27 yards away from a 1,000-yard season.
3. LB Jarvis Jones, Jr. Georgia – The nation’s leader in tackles for loss, the junior came up with two sacks and a few big plays in the SEC championship, but he also whiffed on a few key running plays.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE GEORGIA to win and cover ... easily!

OUTBACK BOWL - TAMPA, FLORIDA - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2013 - 1:00 PM - ESPN

MICHIGAN VS. SOUTH CAROLINA (MINUS 4.0)

1. Is it time for Michigan to grow up and become a real, live superpower again? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it won the Sugar Bowl last season, but it didn’t look all that great doing it and it was against Virginia Tech from the ACC. Winning this would be a bigger statement to cap off an uneven year that started out getting obliterated by Alabama and ending in the regular season with a loss to Ohio State. Beating an SEC team would do wonders for the offseason.
2. South Carolina has fought through the injury to Marcus Lattimore and the blowout loss to Florida to go 10-2 with the potential to finish with one of the greatest seasons in school history. Last year the Gamecocks blasted Nebraska in the Capital One, and a win over another Big Ten team on New Year’s Day would set the tone for what should be a big 2013.
3. Defense, defense, defense. Michigan is 12th in the nation in total defense and South Carolina is 13th. Both teams are outstanding against the pass, but the real fun will be the Gamecock defensive front against the terrific Wolverine offensive line.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Michigan has not exactly been the prettiest bowl watch over the years. Outside of an inspired effort to beat Florida in the 2008 Capital One, the Sugar Bowl last season was ugly and memories of the 52-14 loss to Mississippi State in the 2011 Gator are still a bit too fresh. The Wolverines have won two of the last three bowls, but before that they went on a four game losing streak.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB Devin Gardner, Jr. Michigan – Denard Robinson will get the spotlight in his final game, but this will be Gardner’s offense to run next season. He has been brilliant since taking over in November, highlighted by a 314-yard, three score day – and with three rushing touchdowns – in the win over Iowa.
2. DE Jadeveon Clowney, Soph. South Carolina – Yes, he really is that good. Second in the nation in sacks, he’s the ultimate disruptive force coming off the edge and has to be accounted for on every play.
3. LB Jake Ryan, Soph. Michigan – In a game full of terrific defenders, Ryan still stands out as both a pass rusher and a run defender. He’ll be all over the field.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll take SOUTH CAROLINA to win and cover ... probably by 10 points or more!

ROSE BOWL - PASADENA, CA - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2013 - 5:00 PM - ESPN

STANFORD (MINUS 7.0) VS. WISCONSIN

1. All of a sudden, the Rose Bowl went from interesting to must-see with all the Wisconsin coaching drama. What kind of a team will come out? Will the Badgers be able to avoid losing three straight bowl games? For a team that just hung 70 on the board against Nebraska to win the Big Ten championship, there are a whole slew of big question marks.
2. Stanford can firmly establish itself as a superpower under David Shaw. Going to the Fiesta Bowl and battling with Oklahoma State last year was one thing, and winning the Pac-12 title this season took things to another level. Going 12-2 with a Rose Bowl victory would be another big step forward with a few strong recruiting classes about to mature.
3. It’s the Badger running game against the nation’s No. 1 defense in sacks and tackles for loss. Can Stanford blast away on the Wisconsin defensive front? It’s going to be one of the most physical games of the bowl season.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Wisconsin lost five games for a reason. Granted, they were all close calls with three overtime losses in the final four regular season games, but the quarterback play is a concern and there’s a chance the nation’s No. 3 run defense will stop Bucky cold.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB Kevin Hogan, Fr. Stanford – He’s not Andrew Luck, but the freshman showed great poise and moxie in leading the team over the back half of the season. Very mobile and ultra-competitive, he has the right make-up to go along with the talent to make this his national coming out party.
2. RB James White, Jr. Wisconsin – Montee Ball is the record-setting star and the workhorse, but White has become every bit as dangerous with blinding speed and good toughness. Occasionally operating out of the Wild Badger formation, he threw a touchdown pass against Nebraska to go along with 109 rushing yards and four scores on just 15 carries.
3. LB Shayne Skov, Sr. Stanford – There might not be a better tackling team in America, and it starts with Skov. How did the Cardinal beat Oregon? Skov led the way with ten tackles for a D that didn’t miss a stop.

Rick's Bottom Line: "On paper ... I like Stanford to win and cover ... but then ... Wisconsin lost their head coach to Arkansas in the last few days, and the Wisconsin Coaching Legend - Barry Alvarez - will return to the Badgers' sidelines for one more game! I'll TAKE WISCONSIN in at least a spread upset!"

ORANGE BOWL - MIAMI GARDENS, FL - TUESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2013 - 8:30 PM - ESPN

FLORIDA STATE (MINUS 13.0) VS. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

1. Admit it; now you’re going to watch. Florida State vs. Louisville would’ve brought about as many viewers as a rerun of Cop Rock, but now this has become the novelty game. Can a team from the MAC pull off the shocker? The Huskies have had three straight great seasons with two conference championships. The program is due to show what it can do on a national stage.
2. The Huskie offense is worth the price of admission averaging a nearly-perfect balance of 250 rushing yards and 236 through the air per game. With an aggressive defense an unstoppable offense, the team is ready.
3. It’s still the Orange Bowl and Florida State still has to come up with the win. The defense ranks second in the nation, but if NIU gets hot and pulls off the shocker, this would be a disaster for the ACC, and the Seminoles are coming into the game knowing that. It’s possible that they bring their A game.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: With an interim head coach to go along with a ten-mile wide talent gap, Northern Illinois could get destroyed in painful fashion of Florida State shows up with an angry attitude. The Orange Bowl has been miserable over the last four years with four straight blowouts.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB E.J. Manuel, Sr. Florida State – He never grew into the superstar many expected he’d be, but he has all the NFL tools to make the scouts drool. This is his one final shot to make a push after an underwhelming regular season.
2. QB Jordan Lynch, Jr. Northern Illinois – A fringe Heisman candidate, he ran for 1,771 yards and 19 touchdowns, a record for a quarterback. He also threw for 2,962 yards and 24 touchdowns with just five picks.
3. DE Bjoern Werner, Jr. Florida State – Combining with fellow end Cornellius Carradine, Werner is an elite pass rusher with the full package of strength and speed. He has 13 sacks on the year with 3.5 against Florida.

Rick's Bottom Line: "FLORIDA STATE wins and covers ... easily!"

MUSIC CITY BOWL - NASHVILLE, TN - MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2012 - 12:00 PM - ESPN

N.C. STATE VS. VANDERBILT (MINUS 6½)

1. NC State might be in a transitional phase with Dave Doeren leaving a BCS team – Northern Illinois – for the big paper from the Wolfpack. Meanwhile, there’s a chance James Franklin could be up for one of the big job openings after working wonders with the Commodores. These are two sound teams that will each come out strong.
2. It’s strength on strength. Mike Glennon and the NC State passing game is one of the most efficient and effective in college football, while Vanderbilt is fifth in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Both teams can get into the backfield – Vandy is fifth in the nation in tackles for loss, and NC State is tenth.
3. The Commodores are red hot, winning six straight and seven of its last eight. NC State was the one who ruined Florida State’s national title dream before Florida slammed that door shut. The Wolfpack came up with an improbable late comeback to beat the Noles, and while the team has been inconsistent, it has shown the ability to explode.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Can offensive coordinator Dana Bible keep the NC State ship afloat until Doeren takes over? Vanderbilt might be too strong and too well coached for the Pack to be able to make much of a dent unless the offense gets hot early.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB Mike Glennon, Sr. NC State – One of the high-rising names on the draft boards, Glennon needs to come up with one final big game to wow the scouts even more. He threw for 493 yards and five scores in the shootout loss to Clemson, and he tossed for 467 yards and five touchdowns against North Carolina.
2. RB Zac Stacy, Sr. Vanderbilt – This isn’t like previous seasons when the Commodore offense had a running game and nothing else, but Stacy is the best option. He closed with 180 yards and two scores against Wake Forest to put him over the 1,000-yard mark.
3. CB David Amerson, Jr. NC State – Ripped by some after a tough first game against Tennessee, the preseason All-American and pickoff artist finished with a nice year making five interceptions with 54 tackles. He got better as the season went on.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE VANDERBILT to win and to cover the spread ... maybe by 2 TD's!"

SUN BOWL - EL PASO, TX - MONDAY DECEMBER 31, 2012 - 2:00 PM - CBS

GEORGIA TECH VS. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (MINUS 10.0)

1. USC can’t tackle Georgia Tech running game should = a whole bunch of fun. The Yellow Jackets don’t run like Oregon – they don’t have the same speed and flash – but they have the ability and the potential put up big yards and lots of points in chunks. For a minor bowl game like this, the hope is for a shootout like the wild 62-51 Oregon win over USC or the 68-50 Georgia Tech win over North Carolina.
2. No, USC can’t tackle, but Georgia Tech doesn’t exactly have the tightest of defenses. With time to prepare, and a bowl game to go to, USC should be able to put it all together offensively to make this and up-and-down blast of a game.
3. It’s Matt Barkley’s final game as a collegian. He has more than paid his dues and he deserves to go out with a good game. He took his lumps this season, and he wasn’t the Heisman star everyone assumed he’d be, but he has conducted himself with the utmost class through all the craziness.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: 0-7. After going 8-of-11 from 1985 to 2004 in bowl games, Georgia Tech has lost its last seven games in a variety of ways. There was a blowout against LSU in the 2008 Chick-fil-A, and there were the duds against Air Force in the 2010 Independence and against Fresno State in the 2007 Humanitarian. When teams get time to prepare for the Paul Johnson option offense, they can usually figure it out.
Three Names To Drop:

1. WR Marqise Lee, Soph. USC – He didn’t get the invite to New York, but his 112-catch, 1,680-yard, 14 touchdown season puts him front-and-center on the list of 2013 preseason candidates. He was held in check by Notre Dame, but he should blow up against a mediocre Georgia Tech secondary.
2. QB Tevin Washington, Sr. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets occasionally go with Vad Lee and look to get the hot hand rolling, but Washington has been the main man for the offense when it gets rolling. He has 19 rushing scores and needs to be a star in his final game.
3. S T.J. McDonald, Sr. USC - Tackling has been an issue for the Trojan defense all season long, and McDonald has had his issues, but he has also made his share of big plays in the secondary with 99 stops with two picks. He's a blasted of a hitter, but he also bounces off too many ball-carriers.

Rick's Bottom Line: "The line is too high ... I'll GEORGIA TECH to keep it close, and to beat the spread!

LIBERTY BOWL - MEMPHIS, TN - MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2012 - 3:30 PM ESPN

IOWA STATE VS. TULSA (PICK 'EM)

1. The Conference USA champion has something to prove. Last season’s Liberty Bowl was a Big East-SEC matchup, but C-USA had lost four of the previous five games. However, the games have been terrific with the last eight decided by eight points or fewer including a few of the best bowls in their respective seasons.
2. Iowa State is battle hardened. It has been a rocky second half of the season, but the team has seen plenty of solid teams and came close in a few good battles. All six losses came against bowl bound teams.
3. Tulsa has a fun defense that attacks, attacks, attacks. The Golden Hurricane is third in the nation in sacks and fourth in tackles for loss. The team isn’t afraid to take a few chances.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: We already did this, and it wasn’t fun. Iowa State beat Tulsa 38-23 in the opener with the Cyclones withstanding a tough first quarter to win in a blowout thanks to three takeaways and a great ground game.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Trey Watts, Jr. Tulsa – The all-purpose start it a top-shelf kick and punt returner, a good receiver out of the backfield, and 41 yards away from being a 1,000-yard runner. He ran for 125 yards in the first meeting.
2. LB A.J. Klein, Sr. Iowa State – With Jake Knott getting knocked out early in the year, Klein had to pick up the slack and do even more at linebacker. He became even more of a playmaker against the run, finishing up with 14 tackles against West Virginia.
3. DE Jared St. John, Sr. Tulsa – Not expected to be much more than a decent backup coming into the season, the senior turned it loose and became the star of a great group of pass rusher with 1 1. 5 on the year including two against UCF in the Conference USA title game.
Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE TULSA to win by 9.0!"

ARIZONA STATE VS. NAVY

1. ASU is under new management with head coach Todd Graham coming up with a solid first season complete with a rivalry win over Arizona to close out the regular season. This is a fun team that’s great at getting into the backfield on defense and balanced on offense.
2. Navy is going to be pumped up after missing out on a bowl last season. The call went out from the start of the season to be more physical and stronger, and while that hasn’t always translated into big results, the team is hot again at just the right time.
3. The bowl has been a good one lately with four of the last five decided by seven points or fewer. It wasn’t always this way, going through an ugly stretch in the mid-2000s, but despite being low scoring, the last few have been entertaining.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Both teams have been miserable in bowl games recently. Navy was awful in a blowout loss to San Diego State two seasons ago making it four defeats in the last five. Arizona State has lost three straight getting blasted last year by Boise State and losing the previous two appearances in blowouts.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB Taylor Kelly, Soph. Arizona State – One of the Pac-12’s rising stars, the sophomore threw 25 touchdown passes with just nine picks. He can run a bit, too.
2. RB Gee Gee Greene, Sr. Navy – The Midshipmen use a variety of backs and runners to make the machine go, but it’s Greene who’s the dangerous home run hitter averaging over seven yards per carry. He can also catch, too.
3. DT Will Sutton, Jr. Arizona State – One of the nation’s most active interior defenders, he has been a dominant force at times with 19.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss on the season.

Rick's Bottom Line: "There was no line available for this game as I was assembling this report, however, I have Arizona State winning by 17!"

ALAMO BOWL - SAN ANTONIO, TX - SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2012 - 6:45 PM - ESPN

OREGON STATE (MINUS 1½) VS. TEXAS

1. Talk about pressure, it’s going to be a really, really ugly offseason for Mack Brown if he loses in a home bowl game to close out with three straight losses. If you want to see a desperate team that might come out roaring, Texas should be it. If it’s not, then that might be a referendum on Brown’s status.
2. Oregon State is good enough to win the game and make a big statement for the Pac-12. The offense has the passing game to light up an underwhelming Longhorn defense, while the defense is one of the best in the conference against the run. The Beavers are for real.
3. There’s a good history. Oklahoma State blasted Arizona two years ago in an ugly blowout, but last year’s Baylor win over Washington was the wildest game of the bowl season, and most games over the last several years have either been close or crazy shootouts.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Will the real Texas please stand up? If the Longhorns play like they did over the final two weeks of the season, or in the ugly win over Kansas or the clunker against Oklahoma, the well-coached Beavers could bring the boo birds out early.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB David Ash, Soph. Texas – Does he get the keys to the car again after Case McCoy’s issues against Kansas State? Ash was fantastic in last year’s bowl victory over California, and this game could determine the future of the program.
2. CB Jordan Poyer, Sr. Oregon State – No. 2 in the nation in interceptions with seven, he has been one of the Pac-12’s best all-around cover-corners while doing a decent job against the run.
3. DE Alex Okafor, Sr. Texas – The defense might be a dog this year, but Okafor has come up with a strong year with eight sacks and 46 tackles. He has been the bright spot.

Rick Notes: "Hmmm ... I think the 'Real Texas' will show up ... I'm TAKING TEXAS in an upset!

WILD WINGS BOWL - TEMPE, AZ - SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2012 - 10:15 PM - ESPN

MICHIGAN STATE VS. TCU (MINUS 2½)

1. This is a message board bowl. It might not be the biggest matchup of the season, but it’s the type of game that fans tend to point to as evidence one way or another about the strength of the respective conferences. Can the Big 12 come up with a nice win from its newcomer? A victory by TCU over a good Big Ten team would do wonders for the conference, while the Big Ten needs as many feathers in its cap as possible.
2. The Spartans have been a disappointment, needing to beat Minnesota in the final game of the regular season, just to be bowl eligible. However, this might be the chance at a little bit of redemption. The defense is among the best in America and it’s fantastic against the run. Considering TCU is ten in the nation against the run, for those wanting to see a defensive slugfest of a bowl, this is it.
3. TCU managed to close out the year with a slew of interesting games. The second half was wild and wacky with a few multiple overtime outings and battles with Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma. The team knows how to do interesting.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Michigan State has been one of the worst big-name teams in the bowls over the last two decades. Last year it took a lot of magic and three overtimes to get by Georgia, but before that the team lost five straight after beating Fresno State in a shootout in 2001. The program just isn’t that good in bowls.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Le’Veon Bell, Jr. Michigan State – Arguably the most valuable running back in the nation, he quietly came up with a brilliant 1,648-yard, 11 touchdown season to go along with 30 catches. He’s the one player who can take over this game.
2. P Ethan Perry, Fr. TCU – It might not seem that exciting to highlight a punter, but the true freshman deserves it in a game like this. It’s likely going to be a defensive, low-scoring fight, and the more that Perry can blast away and tilt the field to one side, the better.
3. PK Dan Conroy, Sr. Michigan State – If this really is going to be a tussle, Conroy and his big leg will play a huge role. He missed a few too many kicks, but he nailed 22-of-31 and showed off excellent range.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'm going for another upset folks ... I'll TAKE MICHIGAN STATE!

BELK BOWL - CHARLOTTE, N.C. - THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2012 - 6:30 PM - ESPN

CINCINNATI (MINUS 7½) VS. DUKE

1. Two teams in the 1992 Final Four are now battling in a bowl game that has surprisingly become terrific over the last several years. The matchups might not have always seemed scintillating, but the Belk – formerly the Meineke Car Care and Continental Tire – has come up with four straight games decided by a touchdown or less and five of the last six.
2. This is Duke’s first bowl game since losing to Wisconsin in the 1995 Hall of Fame, and it’s just the third post-season appearance since 1960. The team might have died down the stretch, but it still managed to come up with the wins needed to finally get back over the hump.
3. Cincinnati was really, really close to being the Big East representative in the BCS losing to Louisville in overtime and to Rutgers by seven. The Bearcats destroyed the rest of the Big East, winning all of its five conference games by double digits.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Cincinnati comes into the game winning four of its last five helped by one of the nation’s best defenses. The Bearcats haven’t allowed more than 17 points since early November. Meanwhile, Duke has lost its last four games and five of its last six thanks to a defense that that hasn’t allowed fewer than 42 points since mid-October.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB George Winn, Sr. Cincinnati – The team needed a steady star to carry the offense, and Winn became it with five 100-yard games on the way to 1,204 yards and 12 touchdowns.
2. WR Jamison Crowder, Soph. Duke. – Connor Vernon is the bigger name, but Crowder had the better year. On fire by the end of the season, he caught seven passes for 167 yards against Clemson and closed out with eight grabs for 203 yards and two touchdowns against Miami.
3. LB Greg Blair, Sr. Cincinnati – One of the Big East’s most underappreciated players, the sure-thing tackler came up with 19 stops against Louisville and finished up the season with 123 tackles. He’s the best player on a strong defense.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE CINCINNATI in a rout!"

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL - DETROIT, MI - WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2012 - 7:30 PM - ESPN

CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS. WESTERN KENTUCKY (MINUS 6.0)

1. The two teams are going to try. It’s not every day that Western Kentucky and Central Michigan get to bowl games, so there’s no whine factor about wishing they were some place better. This is a really, really big deal for two programs that have risen up from some bad, bad seasons.
2. The two coaches are starting to generate a little bit of a buzz. Central Michigan’s Dan Enos isn’t exactly Brian Kelly quite yet, but he has a good offensive mind and has his team on a roll winning four of its last five games. WKU’s Willie Taggart is destined for a step-up job soon after putting together a tremendous rebuilding job.
3. The Little Caesars has produced some of the best bowl games over the last few years. The last five have been fantastic with all decided by five points or fewer.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The Hilltoppers are limping into the bowl losing three of the last four including an inexcusable gaffe against Florida Atlantic. Yes, CMU has won three straight and four of the last five, but the wins have come against some of the worst teams in college football like Akron and UMass.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Antonio Andrews, Jr. WKU – The nation’s leader in all-purpose yards, he’s coming into the game with 468 rushing yards in his last two games. He’s also a great receiver out of the backfield and an elite kick and punt returner.
2. RB Zurlon Tipton, Jr. Central Michigan – On fire, he has rushed for 100 yards or more in the last six games with 13 touchdowns over the span. He has rushed for 1,396 yards and 19 scores on the year.
3. DE Quanterus Smith, Sr. WKU – Want to win a bar bet? Ask who leads the nation in sacks. Smith has been dominant with 12.5 sacks on the season with five coming in the win over FIU and three against Arkansas State.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE CENTRAL MICHIGAN to beat the spread!"

Bills at Dolphins (-4.0) - Sunday December 23, 2012 - 1:00 PM CBS

While the Dolphins' passing attack isn't overly impressive, their run game is a bit better; in fact, it's ranked 16th in the league with an average of 112.4 YPG. That's because Reggie Bush, who will become a free agent in the offseason, has carried 200 times for 895 yards (4.5 Avg) and five touchdowns; what's more, he has 29 catches out of the backfield for 227 yards (7.8 Avg). It's also worth noting that second-year RB Daniel Thomas has rushed 91 times for 325 yards (3.6 Avg) and four touchdowns. Defensively the Fins are ranked 17th in the league, and that because they hold opponents to an average of 348.9 total YPG (247.9 passing YPG & 100.9 rushing YPG). That' quite a bit better than the Bills, who are ranked 24th after allowing an average of 369.5 total YPG (225.4 passing YPG and 144.1 rushing YPG). Offensively the Bills outperform their rivals. They're ranked 20th in the NFL, which includes the 25th-ranked passing game and 6th-best rushing attack. Regarding the former, Ryan Fitzpatrick has earned a rating of 83.5 after going 274 of 444 for 2,935 yards, 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He hooks up most with wide receiver Steve Johnson, who has 69 receptions for 891 yards (12.8 Ag) and six touchdowns, but tight end Scott Chandler, who has 42 catches for 546 yards (13 Avg) and six touchdowns, is not far behind. On the ground, C.J. Spiller is having a superb year having carried 161 times for 1,047 yards (6.5 Avg) and six touchdowns. Those numbers could be even better had Spiller not battled injury, at which time Fred Jackson stepped up and carried the load-he has 115 rushes for 437 yards (3.8 Avg and three touchdowns).

Rick's Bottom Line: Both these teams are young and building to something better. That's going to take some time, but each squad has a few keys pieces in place. Finishing the season strong will mean a lot to both teams, but the Fins are still intent on scoring the AFC's sixth seed. Even though it's a long shot, I think that motivation will give the Fins an edge in this game. They're coming off a decisive win last week and haven't had to travel, which has given them plenty of time to rest and prepare. Despite last week's result, the Fins tend to play tight games, so overcoming the line could be difficult; however, they should come in with a reckless abandon, a "go-big-or-go-home" attitude if you will, so I look for them to have more scoring opportunities than usual. Whether of not they convert is a different question as the Bills are going to be a challenge, but in my opinion this is Miami's game to win or lose. I TAKE THE DOLPHINS to win ... and to "Beat The Spread!"

B.Y.U. (MINUS 3.0) VS. SAN DIEGO STATE

1. BYU always seems to bring the effort to the bowls. The team has been stuck in a bit of a rut for a while, being tied into this bowl from the start of the season and having little to play for over the last few weeks. Even so, the offense picked up hitting the 50-point mark in two of its last three games.
2. San Diego State is on a roll. The co-Mountain West champion has won seven straight including a shocker at Boise State to turn the conference season on its ear. The running game is among the best in the country.
3. The excitement should be there. It’s a home game for the Aztecs, while BYU brings fans in San Diego. The two teams should be pumped up for the game – effort won’t be a problem.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: The two teams are a bit too flaky and there’s a chance for a lopsided result. The Aztec offense isn’t exactly explosive with a bit too many problems against mediocre teams like UNLV, while BYU’s defense has the potential to rise up and shut things down. The Cougars are third in the nation in total D and second against the run.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Adam Muema, Soph. San Diego State – The centerpiece of the Rocky Long rushing attack, Muema finished up the regular season with 255 yards and four scores against Wyoming.
2. WR Cody Hoffman, Jr. BYU – The offense has been inconsistent all season long, but Hoffman has turned into a star, exploding for 34 catches over the last three games and with five scoring grabs against New Mexico State.
3. CB Leon McFadden, Sr. San Diego State – One of the nation’s better defensive backs, he only has three picks on the season but he has ten broken up passes and is a terrific tackler.

Rick's Bottom Line: I'll probably sit this one out folks ... I have B.Y.U. winning by 4.0!"

NEW MEXICO BOWL ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2012 - 1:00 - ESPN

ARIZONA (MINUS 10.0) VS. NEVADA

1. At least in theory, this should be among the most fun offensive shootouts and it should be a whale of a way to open up the bowl season. Nevada has one of the nation’s top rushing offenses, but it can’t play a lick of defense against the run. Arizona has a devastating offense and is great at running the ball, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, period.
2. Could this be the coming out moment for Arizona football? Beating USC was big, and it has been a great season under Rich Rodriguez, and beating Nevada would send the program into the offseason with a ton of positive momentum – the team will get a ton of hype as the next star.
3. This is a big game for the Mountain West. This is an also-ran of a Wolf Pack team that lost four of the last five games, but a win would show that the league really can play. It would do wonders for the conference if a mid-level team could beat the Pac-12.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Nevada has been a miserable bowl team. It was able to beat Boston College a few years ago when Colin Kaepernick was able to lead the way for the greatest team in school history. That was the one bright spot for a program that has lost five of its last six bowl games. Arizona hasn’t been much better losing the 2009 Holiday and the 2010 Alamo by a combined score of 69 to 10.

Three Names To Drop:

1. RB Ka’Deem Carey, Soph. Arizona – The nation’s leading rusher, Carey tore off 1,757 yards with 20 touchdowns including 366 yards and five touchdowns against Colorado. Second in the nation in rushing is …
2. RB Stefphon Jefferson, Jr. Nevada – The Wolf Pack always cranks out big rushing numbers in the Chris Ault Pistol offense, and this year it’s Jefferson who is taking advantage with a 1,703-yard, 22 touchdown season. He hit the 100-yard mark nine times, and ran for 90 or more in two of the other three games.
3. WR Austin Hill, Soph. Arizona – Overshadowed by the other Wildcat stars, Hill rose up to lead the team with 73 catches for 1,189 yards and nine scores. He had his big moment against USC with ten grabs for 259 yards, but he was strong throughout the year.

Rick's Bottom Line: "This should be a wild shootout to open the bowl season ... I'm TAKING NEVADA to beat the spread ... I'm also thinking about TAKING THE OVER (70) feeling that Arizona will win 40-36!

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - BOISE, ID - SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2012 - 4:30 PM - ESPN

TOLEDO VS. UTAH STATE (MINUS 10.0)

1. Don’t sleep on this matchup. It might not seem all that exciting with a MAC also-ran vs. the WAC champion, but these are two very good, very sound teams that came extremely close to doing special things. The Rockets three losses were all by a touchdown or less including an overtime defeat against Arizona and a 31-24 battle at Northern Illinois. Utah State missed a chip shot of a field goal against Wisconsin and lost to BYU 6-3. That’s it.
2. The Aggies are known a bit nationally for their offense, but they’re loaded on defense this season allowing 20 points of fewer in every game but two, helped mostly from a pass rush that’s great at destroying opposing backfield. Led by Gary Andersen, this is one of the best coached teams in college football.
3. Teams get into this bowl game, and it has shown over the years with six of the last eight decided by a touchdown or less, including a brilliant Idaho win over Bowling Green in 2009 and last year’s fun Ohio win over Utah State.

And Why You Shouldn’t Care A Lick: Toledo has been a bit of a dud in bowls. Granted, the program has only gone bowling four times since 2002, but it has lost three of the last four in blowouts including a tough performance in 2010 Little Caesar’s loss to FIU. Utah State is much, much better on both sides of the ball.

Three Names To Drop:

1. QB Chuckie Keeton, Soph. Utah State – He started out his career being known as a strong runner, but he has grown into an elite passer. While he has thrown a few too many picks lately, 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes are the norm.
2. WR Bernard Reedy, Jr. Toledo – When he’s on, there are few more unstoppable receivers with four games with ten grabs or more finishing with 82 catches for 1,051 yards and six scores. He’s also an elite kick and punt returner, taking three returns back for scores.
3. RB Kerwynn Williams, Sr. Utah State – Overshadowed in the past by other great Aggie runners, this has been his year to shine tearing off 1,277 yards and 12 touchdowns while catching 43 passes for 665 yards and five scores.

Rick's Bottom Line: "I'll TAKE UTAH STATE to both win, and cover!"

Saints at Giants (MINUS 5.0 / OVER/UNDER 55.0) December 9, 4:45 PM FOX