RICK NEEDHAM'S BETTER BETTOR


CALIFORNIA CHROME

WINS AGAIN - SAN DIEGO STAKES AT DEL MAR!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE (SARATOGA, NEW YORK) WEDNESDAY, JULY 27, 2016

Gun Runner became the first 3-year-old stabled outside of Monmouth Park to arrive for the $1 million Haskell Invitational, set for July 31 at the New Jersey racetrack. Owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds, Three Chimneys Farm, and Besilu Stables, Gun Runner arrived at about 9:20 a.m. EDT July 25 after his trip from Saratoga Race Course, where he worked the previous day for trainer Steve Asmussen. "He looked like he shipped really well," Asmussen assistant Scott Blasi told Monmouth media officials. "His energy is good. The plan is to tack walk him (Wednesday) to get him use to his surroundings. He will gallop over the track Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and probably school in the paddock Friday." Gun Runner, by Candy Ride , won the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (gr. II) earlier this year and the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs in his most recent start. In the 1 1/8-mile Haskell, he is expected to face Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Nyquist; multiple grade I winner Brody's Cause; California shipper American Freedom, winner of the Iowa Derby (gr. III); Withers Stakes (gr. III) winner Sunny Ridge; and Awesome Slew, third in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth in his previous start.

RACE #8 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 4:45 PM EASTERN POST

The Honorable Miss Handicap

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#1 PAULASSILVERLINING
#7 BAR OF GOLD
#2 DISCO CHICK
#4 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY

The Honorable Miss is named after the Pen-Y-Bryn Farm's multiple stakes-winning mare. Trained by Frank Whiteley and ridden by Jacinto Vasquez, the daughter of Damascus was 19-12-9 from 62 career starts, with earnings of $437,973. Often competing against males, in 1975 she won the Toboggan Handicap, the Vagrancy Handicap, the Gravesend Handicap and the Fall Highweight Handicap as a 5-year-old. She won the Fall Highweight again in 1976. First run in 1992, the Honorable Miss was run at 6½ furlongs in 1993, and at six furlongs thereafter. Here in the 25th running of "The Miss," #1 PAULASSILVERLINING is the overall speed leader in this stakes field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in each of her last five outings, with her last four efforts, including a trio of wins, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #7 BAR OF GOLD, the pace profile leader in this field, and has hit the board in four of her respective last five starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back.


RACING NEWS: Millionaire Oklahoma gelding Clever Trevor, a grade I winner who ran at 16 different racetracks, died recently at the age of 31. The son of Slewacide—Little Mary Beans, by Twice Bold, who propelled trainer Donnie K. Von Hemel into national prominence, spent his retirement at Von Hemel's Robin's Nest Farm near Piedmont, Okla., where he passed away July 22. Clever Trevor made what was to be his career finale in the 1992 Washington Park Handicap (gr. II), in which he finished second. The plan was to try him on turf, but Clever Trevor developed a foot abcess while training at Remington Park and the decision was made to retire him. He finished with a 15-5-2 mark from 30 starts, including nine stakes wins, and earnings of $1,388,841 spread over five seasons while taking on all comers. Clever Trevor's record was topped by his victory in the 1989 Arlington Classic (gr. I). He also finished second in the 1989 Travers Stakes (gr. I) to Hall of Famer Easy Goer and was second and third behind two-time champion sprinter Housebuster in top East Coast sprint stakes in 1991: the Forego (gr. II) and listed Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash in back-to-back starts. "His last couple of races they were still 110-type Beyer (speed figure) races," Von Hemel said. "He was just a high-quality animal, even after knee surgeries after his 3-year-old year, his 4-year-old year, and 5-year-old year. Chips in both knees. He ran into some tough ones, but he never disappointed—always came to run. "He was the first really national horse I had, and at a point in my career when Remington Park (near Oklahoma City) had just started. It really helped me get going, not only at Remington but across the nation. Just great people who owned (and bred) him, the McNeill family. Just memories you'll cherish the rest of your life." Clever Trevor was the only retired Thoroughbred racehorse at Robin's Nest Farm. He quickly developed a bond with the Von Hemel family at their home and with his running buddy Nick, a palomino American Quarter Horse that Von Hemel's wife, Robin, had purchased to ride around the farm. "Once Trevor arrived, they became best friends and wouldn't let each other out of the other's sight," she said. "I never rode Nick again; Trevor wouldn't allow it. We had to do everything with them as a pair. Nick is also saddened by this loss." Clever Trevor's main caretaker, Robin Von Hemel, said the farm feels empty without him. "He was here with us for the last 24 years," she said. "He had become very elderly in recent days. He let us know it was time on Friday night." Clever Trevor was just the second Oklahoma-bred millionaire; 1986 Horse of the Year Lady's Secret was the first.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE (SARATOGA, NEW YORK) WEDNESDAY, JULY 27, 2016

Gun Runner became the first 3-year-old stabled outside of Monmouth Park to arrive for the $1 million Haskell Invitational, set for July 31 at the New Jersey racetrack. Owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds, Three Chimneys Farm, and Besilu Stables, Gun Runner arrived at about 9:20 a.m. EDT July 25 after his trip from Saratoga Race Course, where he worked the previous day for trainer Steve Asmussen. "He looked like he shipped really well," Asmussen assistant Scott Blasi told Monmouth media officials. "His energy is good. The plan is to tack walk him (Wednesday) to get him use to his surroundings. He will gallop over the track Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and probably school in the paddock Friday." Gun Runner, by Candy Ride , won the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (gr. II) earlier this year and the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs in his most recent start. In the 1 1/8-mile Haskell, he is expected to face Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Nyquist; multiple grade I winner Brody's Cause; California shipper American Freedom, winner of the Iowa Derby (gr. III); Withers Stakes (gr. III) winner Sunny Ridge; and Awesome Slew, third in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth in his previous start.

RACE #8 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 4:45 PM EASTERN POST

The Honorable Miss Handicap

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#1 PAULASSILVERLINING
#7 BAR OF GOLD
#2 DISCO CHICK
#4 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY

The Honorable Miss is named after the Pen-Y-Bryn Farm's multiple stakes-winning mare. Trained by Frank Whiteley and ridden by Jacinto Vasquez, the daughter of Damascus was 19-12-9 from 62 career starts, with earnings of $437,973. Often competing against males, in 1975 she won the Toboggan Handicap, the Vagrancy Handicap, the Gravesend Handicap and the Fall Highweight Handicap as a 5-year-old. She won the Fall Highweight again in 1976. First run in 1992, the Honorable Miss was run at 6½ furlongs in 1993, and at six furlongs thereafter. Here in the 25th running of "The Miss," #1 PAULASSILVERLINING is the overall speed leader in this stakes field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in each of her last five outings, with her last four efforts, including a trio of wins, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #7 BAR OF GOLD, the pace profile leader in this field, and has hit the board in four of her respective last five starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back.


RACING NEWS: Millionaire Oklahoma gelding Clever Trevor, a grade I winner who ran at 16 different racetracks, died recently at the age of 31. The son of Slewacide—Little Mary Beans, by Twice Bold, who propelled trainer Donnie K. Von Hemel into national prominence, spent his retirement at Von Hemel's Robin's Nest Farm near Piedmont, Okla., where he passed away July 22. Clever Trevor made what was to be his career finale in the 1992 Washington Park Handicap (gr. II), in which he finished second. The plan was to try him on turf, but Clever Trevor developed a foot abcess while training at Remington Park and the decision was made to retire him. He finished with a 15-5-2 mark from 30 starts, including nine stakes wins, and earnings of $1,388,841 spread over five seasons while taking on all comers. Clever Trevor's record was topped by his victory in the 1989 Arlington Classic (gr. I). He also finished second in the 1989 Travers Stakes (gr. I) to Hall of Famer Easy Goer and was second and third behind two-time champion sprinter Housebuster in top East Coast sprint stakes in 1991: the Forego (gr. II) and listed Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash in back-to-back starts. "His last couple of races they were still 110-type Beyer (speed figure) races," Von Hemel said. "He was just a high-quality animal, even after knee surgeries after his 3-year-old year, his 4-year-old year, and 5-year-old year. Chips in both knees. He ran into some tough ones, but he never disappointed—always came to run. "He was the first really national horse I had, and at a point in my career when Remington Park (near Oklahoma City) had just started. It really helped me get going, not only at Remington but across the nation. Just great people who owned (and bred) him, the McNeill family. Just memories you'll cherish the rest of your life." Clever Trevor was the only retired Thoroughbred racehorse at Robin's Nest Farm. He quickly developed a bond with the Von Hemel family at their home and with his running buddy Nick, a palomino American Quarter Horse that Von Hemel's wife, Robin, had purchased to ride around the farm. "Once Trevor arrived, they became best friends and wouldn't let each other out of the other's sight," she said. "I never rode Nick again; Trevor wouldn't allow it. We had to do everything with them as a pair. Nick is also saddened by this loss." Clever Trevor's main caretaker, Robin Von Hemel, said the farm feels empty without him. "He was here with us for the last 24 years," she said. "He had become very elderly in recent days. He let us know it was time on Friday night." Clever Trevor was just the second Oklahoma-bred millionaire; 1986 Horse of the Year Lady's Secret was the first.


RICK'S HANDICAPPING VIDEOS

THOROUGHBRED RACING

HARNESS RACING

GREYHOUND RACING


RaceAnalyser Software

Wagering Mathematics Software

Rick has added these software products to his handicapping arsenal! They use TrackMaster Past Performance Files! Check 'em out!

WagerMate Thoroughbred Handicapping Software

RaceAnalyser Thoroughbred Handicapping Software


Disclaimer: Every attempt has been made to insure accuracy, however since this report is prepared and typed by hand, errors, including typographical and numerical, can be made. It is the responsibility of the end user to "cross check" these selections against the actual entries and program numbers.


BRAZILIAN "BRAHMA BEER LONGSHOTS" - JULY 27, 2016

INDIANA DOWNS

RACE #2: #1 FINE ONE is 9-2 in the morning line, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five starts.

MOUNTAINEER PARK

RACE #2: The 6-1 shot, #4 DON'T DEFY ME, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts, including "POWER RUN WI" in his last start, as well as in his 5th race back.


Ultra Longshot Angles

NOTE: The entries listed below have been "found" utilizing TrackMaster's fantastic new product Ultra Angles ... I have utilized this product to scan EVERY TRACK in North America for entries today meeting the following 3 criteria:

a. Odds are AT LEAST 4-1
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!

Delaware Park - Race #9 - 5:15PM - #5 CHNDAKASEXPRESS 8/1
Evangeline Downs - Race #4 - 7:11PM - #1 HIDDEN DANGER 5/1
Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - 8:32PM - #2 CLASSIC LANDON 10/1

NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.

cartoon

CHECK OUT THIS SOFTWARE TO FIND RICK'S "POWER PUPS!"


NOTES ON CLASS: The TrackMaster PLUS software uses a sophisticated mathematical formula to calculate the "class" of a particular race. It is important to note that this calculation is NOT based on purse structure, but on the competitive level of the entries in today's field. Therefore, it is possible (and not uncommon), that an entry may be racing for a higher purse today than in his or her last race, but in a "TrackMaster Sense" is dropping in class, because the overall abilities of the entries in today's race are not as competitive as the entries in his or her last race. The TrackMaster class scale is numeric, and basically ranges from 50 to 100, and is particularly helpful in judging entries that are "shipping" in from another track. In my analysis of a race, I often note that an entry is "dropping in class," or "stepping up in class." Following this statement, you will see a (number in parenthesis). The value of that particular number indicates the degree of the class change. EXAMPLE: "#4 SIN CITY takes a fairly significant class drop (-8) this evening." This indicates that this entry is dropping by 8 TrackMaster Class Levels from his or her last race. It does not necessarily mean that this entry is racing for a lower purse, only racing against a less competitive field.

NOTES: I frequently use the term, "POWER RUN" in this column. It is my terminology for a previous race run at a speed, which if duplicated today, should compete for the winner's circle at the class level in which the entry is competing today. Space requirements do not allow for a thorough discussion of this calculation, however, if you would like a short essay on how the "POWER RUN" is calculated, kindly send me some EMAIL at rneedham1@yahoo.com and I'll send you a copy of my "POWER RUN" file.


Do you want some handicapping tips? Select an "essay" below, and I'll return some comments to you via email!

Kindly enter Your Name:

    Bouncers
    Power Run/PowerPonies
    Maiden Starters
    LASIX Runners
    Three Star Sires
    The Value of Class
    Reading PS's
    Exotic Wager BOXING
    Aqueduct's Inner Track
    Down and Dirty Quick Pick Longshots
    How to qualify for The Breeders' Cup
    The Psychology of Pari-Mutual Wagering


Rick Needham - Football 2015-2016

2015-2016 ARCHIVED FOOTBALL REPORTS:

Rick Needham's Football Report 2015-2016 Season

Week Ending - February 7, 2016

THE SUPER BOWL

PANTHERS (MINUS 6½) VS. BRONCOS

Sunday, February 7, 2016 at 6:30PM EST
Santa Clara, California - TV: CBS
Over/Under Total: 47.0

Rick's Overview:The Carolina Panthers meet the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 at Levi’s Stadium on February 7. It is a matchup of the top two seeds from each conference. Carolina, on the strength of winning 17 of 18 games this season, is the favorite. But a salient case can be made for either team. Let’s take a look at Super Bowl 50 and see what we can come up with.

Carolina has been impressive in the postseason, which followed a 15-1 regular season. They smashed two pretty good defenses with wins over Seattle and a 49-15 smashing of Arizona in the NFC Title Game. Since head coach Ron Rivera came into town, Carolina has always been a team with a nasty defense, but they added a lot to their offense this season and were actually the league’s top-scoring offense this season. And they’ve been pretty consistent in terms of scoring, surpassing 31 points in 7 of their last 8 games.

Carolina has a quarterback in Cam Newton who has morphed into perhaps the most legit dual-threat player at that position. Between him and Jonathan Stewart, they run the heck out of the ball. Carolina has a pretty nice aerial attack, despite having only a good tight end in Greg Olsen and a bunch of role guys at wide receiver. This offense gets the most out of what they have, bolstered by a stout and playmaking defense that can have a big impact on the results of games.

Denver has a Hall of Fame quarterback in Peyton Manning who might be facing his last game. He missed a lot of time, but came back in the second half of week 17 to lead Denver past the Chargers, before notching a pair of playoff wins to get to his 4th Super Bowl. This team was in the Bowl two years ago and there’s a lot of big-game experience on that sideline. Meanwhile, Carolina’s sideline is filled with guys who will be seeing this for the first time.

Denver managed to become a top team in what was really a transitional season, as they moved away from a quarterback-centric approach, putting more responsibility in the hands of the run-game and a defense that became the top-rated unit in the game. On one hand, their offense seemed a lot flatter this season, but the results speak louder than anything, as they’re in the Super Bowl. A big assist goes to what is really a good Denver defense that looks to have peaked at the right time.

Carolina faces a major challenge with this Denver defense. And when looking at their schedule, it’s not like the Panthers beat a ton of good defenses this season. In the playoffs, Pittsburgh and New England both struggled against this Denver defense. The Denver pass-rush, led by Von Miller, could very well become a major factor in this game. The Denver defense was the top-rated pass-defense and there are numerous matchup issues for Carolina heading into this game.

Carolina was excellent this season at 15-1 and 2-0 in the playoffs. But when something looks too good, we are forced to take a peek around the still and see if we can’t find another way of looking at it. Let’s look at Carolina away from home for a second. In the last five weeks of the regular season, they had three road games—beating sub-.500 teams like the Saints and the Giants each by a field goal, before losing to Atlanta by 7. We’ve seen them romp at home in the playoffs as the NFC’s top-seed, but let’s not forget that things can be different when taking the show on the road and there’s ample evidence that Carolina could be a diminished force away from Charlotte.

When a team like Carolina wins 17 of 18 games and covers 13 spreads, it might be hard to make the case that they’re overrated. But when scanning their schedule, it is striking how many soft teams they faced. And even the better teams they beat weren’t playing very well at the time they met the Panthers. Carolina deserves credit for having only one really bad game the whole season, but there is some variance in how they play at home, as opposed to on the road.

We hear people talk about experience, without really being clear on how that will resonate in a game. With Peyton Manning, the Broncos benefit from having one of the sharpest football minds in the sport actually on the field. His arm isn’t what it used to be and there’s no guarantee he will even make it through 4 quarters against this hard-hitting and difference-making Panthers’ defense. But there is no one better at identifying weaknesses in opposing defenses and in a game of this magnitude, having a calm-thinking veteran like Manning with his off-the-charts football IQ behind center can be invaluable. It’s almost like having a coach on the field. Since coming back in week 17, Manning has actually looked pretty good, even more so against New England in his last game, which showed that he might be rounding into shape at just the right time. The time off he had during the season can start paying off now.

Rick's Bottom Line: Well folks ... my "gut" feeling is that this game could be a "blowout" in favor of Carolina .. terms like “overrated” and “underrated” are thrown around a lot, but they might apply to this game. People see Denver barely scrapi